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Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

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Re: Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

#231

Post by Idontagree »

snowwrestler wrote: post #226
Idontagree wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not impossible? In today's world finding your full name and address is incredibly easy. Yes, finding which precinct you vote in isn't as easy, but I don't understand why the system is such that having a government issued I.D. is so difficult to obtain. If that's really stopping people from voting, then there's something wrong with our DMVs, etc.

If you want to steal my vote, specifically, you can certainly do it. Better get there early though, I vote in the morning. To scale such an effort up to materially affect an election would be incredibly difficult to do, and easy to spot. > If that's really stopping people from voting, then there's something wrong with our DMVs, etc. The DMV sucks: this is news?

On the one hand, I can agree with you. I don't see someone managing to fake 1000s of votes by walking in without identification. That would require a lot of manpower, I imagine. On the other, I think you or I would still be pretty annoyed if someone had walked in and voted for us.

Re: Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

#232

Post by smoyer »

patrickk wrote: post #188
smoyer wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AirBNB turns my unused space into cash but also keeps me from staying at a hotel. These businesses are certainly adding value for their shareholders and customers. They are not generally expanding the economy. I should also admit that many existing business models should be disrupted.

It doesn't keep you from staying at a hotel, that's a choice you make. Also, I've stayed at AirBnb locations where there was no other accommodations options, so it's difficult to argue it's taking business from a hotel in these scenarios. Additionally, I wouldn't be surprised if bigger hotel chains legally evade loads of tax like virtually all large multinational companies do, which isn't an option for most AirBnb ho…

"keeps" was a poor word choice. I've never stayed at an AirBNB (or VRBO, etc) on the same night I also stayed at a hotel, so if I choose one, then the other (in general) isn't getting my business.

Reading the rest of your comment, I don't really think we disagree except that you seem to think AirBNB is driving additional revenue into the economy ("Also, I've stayed at AirBnb locations where there was no other accommodations options") - before AirBNB was there, what would you have done? You would have either stayed at a hotel that was further away than you'd like, or stayed home.

The consumer is definitely winning though.

Re: Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

#233

Post by dragonwriter »

Idontagree wrote: post #222
snowwrestler wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> not make it so anyone can walk in and vote This is not how it works now. Even without photo ID, a voter must confirm that they are registered before they are permitted to vote. At my precinct this consists of giving my full name and address, which the poll worker confirms against a list they have of currently registered voters. If you wanted to steal my vote, you would need to know in which precinct I'm registered,…

Not impossible? In today's world finding your full name and address is incredibly easy. Yes, finding which precinct you vote in isn't as easy, but I don't understand why the system is such that having a government issued I.D. is so difficult to obtain. If that's really stopping people from voting, then there's something wrong with our DMVs, etc.

> In today's world finding your full name and address is incredibly easy. Yes, finding which precinct you vote in isn't as easy

That's fairly easy, too, since there is usually a direct mapping between addresses and precincts.

But to cast a fraudulent vote it takes more than doing that, it takes finding that information and using it to vote before the legitimate voter does -- and to do it undetected requires the legitimate voter not voting after you've done it, either.

Re: Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

#234

Post by kafkaesq »

nathan_f77 wrote: post #185

My favorite part of the article (so far): > “My problem is that when my friends get drunk they talk about the ways the world will end. After a Dutch lab modified the H5N1 bird-flu virus, five years ago, making it super contagious, the chance of a lethal synthetic virus being released in the next twenty years became, well, nonzero. The other most popular scenarios would be A.I. that attacks us and nations fighting wit…

I have guns, gold, potassium iodide, antibiotics, batteries, water, gas masks from the Israeli Defense Force, and a big patch of land in Big Sur I can fly to.

The SV ethos, in a nutshell.

Re: Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

#235

Post by nostrademons »

tomcam wrote: post #218
jedberg wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is fascinating. And I definitely trust data more than common wisdom. Good thing for the Democrats that Trump doesn't. :)

Citation?

About the missing Trump voters or about the Trump campaign not paying attention to data? I gave a citation for the former above - as for the latter, well, the evidence is contradictory. Trump said in May that he considers big data overrated [1][2], though he reversed himself in August [3].

The tricky part about using data is that it takes time to build an effective data operation. It takes time to collect the data, it takes time to analyze it, and then you need a large ground organizational effort to actually turn that data into votes. The last day for voter registration in most swing states is Oct 11, barely a week away. Even if he's recently had a change of heart, it's likely too late to do anything effective.

[1] http://elections.ap.org/content/ap-interview-trump-says-big-...

[2] http://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-big-data-gamble-146939531...

[3] https://www.wired.com/2016/08/trump-cambridge-analytica/

Re: Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

#236

Post by usefulcat »

Idontagree wrote: post #223
usefulcat wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I understand it, in many (most?) places voter fraud was already pretty rare. If that's the case, then it's not hard to see how a "solution" to the problem of voter fraud could actually prevent more legitimate votes than illegitimate votes simply by making things slightly more difficult for some or all legitimate voters.

Pretty rare? Ok, it's pretty rare that people try my door handle at night, but I'm still not going to leave it unlocked. I think voting is a pretty serious issue, if we're meant to take to it seriously.

It's a question of costs and benefits. Which is worse: 1 illegitimate vote being cast, or 10 legitimate voters not voting at all?

Re: Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

#237

Post by Idontagree »

usefulcat wrote: post #236
Idontagree wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty rare? Ok, it's pretty rare that people try my door handle at night, but I'm still not going to leave it unlocked. I think voting is a pretty serious issue, if we're meant to take to it seriously.

It's a question of costs and benefits. Which is worse: 1 illegitimate vote being cast, or 10 legitimate voters not voting at all?

Yea after mulling it over, I guess I can agree with that. I admit it seems like it would be very difficult to get enough people to commit fraud when it was just identification making the difference. Still wouldn't want to be the victim of it, though.

Re: Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

#238

Post by dang »

pdog wrote: post #155

> Nothing came of Paul Graham’s plan for tech to stop Donald Trump, but Altman, after brooding about Trump for months, recently announced a nonpartisan project, called VotePlz, aimed at getting out the youth vote. Looking at the election as a tech problem—what’s the least code with the most payoff?—Altman and his three co-founders concentrated on helping young people in nine swing states to register, by providing the…

We've marked this subthread off topic since it veered into general politics.

Re: Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

#239

Post by dragonwriter »

Idontagree wrote: post #222
snowwrestler wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> not make it so anyone can walk in and vote This is not how it works now. Even without photo ID, a voter must confirm that they are registered before they are permitted to vote. At my precinct this consists of giving my full name and address, which the poll worker confirms against a list they have of currently registered voters. If you wanted to steal my vote, you would need to know in which precinct I'm registered,…

Not impossible? In today's world finding your full name and address is incredibly easy. Yes, finding which precinct you vote in isn't as easy, but I don't understand why the system is such that having a government issued I.D. is so difficult to obtain. If that's really stopping people from voting, then there's something wrong with our DMVs, etc.

> If that's really stopping people from voting, then there's something wrong with our DMVs, etc.

Sure. But sometimes, it seems like the "something wrong with our DMVs" isn't a separate problem, but a fairly deliberate effort to exploit the danger directly created by adding the functioning of the DMV as a dependency in the electoral process. [0]

[0] e.g., http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/alabama-dmv-closings-draw-call-fe...

Re: Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

#240

Post by sidlls »

agumonkey wrote: post #131
n72 wrote: post #54

"The missing circuit in my brain, the circuit that would make me care what people think about me, is a real gift." I think that circuit exists and is functioning quite well. It seems to me there's a lot of glory embedded in YC's plans.

He said people, not the medias.

Who do you think the media's audience is?

Perhaps he should have said "most people" instead of what he did say.

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