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Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

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Re: Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

#221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The logic behind it, I think game theory, is simple and does not just apply to democracy but any system of corporate or state government. It goes like this: Suppose there exist 2 parties to a conflict of interest. I want Z, but you also want Z, and this is a rival good, only one of us can have it at one time. Then it is possible for 1 party to play ball with the other party, but IFF there is a different, separate con…

Can you provide any links / reading related to some "other systems in G-space"? Sounds interesting.

Sure. For clarification: by G-space I meant 'how to govern well' or 'how to solve problems about, with, or in governance'.

This is obviously an enormous topic area. It is also a dangerous and highly contentious subject matter filled with many taboos, due to its nature and importance.

That said political scholars, like economists, have come to many consensus realizations. This is kind of amazing since Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are clones from a political science perspective, there exists a great diversity of thought.

This means that there is not as much of a gap between somebody like Francis Fukuyama and Moldbug as is popularly imagined. If you have a sincere interest in outcomes you find unexpected allies.

Here is a good start:

Volume 1: The Origins of Political Order by Francis Fukuyama Volume 2: Political Order and Political Decay by Francis Fukuyama

Seeing Like a State by James Scott

Exit, Voice and Loyalty by Albert Hirschman

The Problem of Political Authority by Michael Huemer

The Collapse of Complex Societies by Joesph Tainter

The majority of the time these authors are interested in outcomes, not in winning for whatever their home team is.

Outside of academia Silicon Valley itself is having a serious discussion on this topic from our perspective:

Balaji Srinivasan : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOubCHLXT6A

Peter Thiel : http://www.cato-unbound.org/2009/04/13/peter-thiel/education...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F3EBfS9IcB4

Patri Friedman : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasteading

Larry Page : https://techcrunch.com/2013/05/15/larry-page-wants-earth-to-...

Last but not least, the notorious Moldbug: Best explained by Scott Alexander : http://slatestarcodex.com/2013/03/03/reactionary-philosophy-...

If somebody is aware of an interesting line of thought around these issues I'll be happy to hear it.

One thing is perfectly clear and that is with the advent of the Internet we see the world differently and that this will lead to different forms of governance for the first time in several hundred years.

I also half seriously recommend you listen to audiobooks by Lovecraft to get into the appropriate mood for studying or reading about government.

"The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents. We live on a placid island of ignorance in the midst of black seas of infinity, and it was not meant that we should voyage far. The sciences, each straining in its own direction, have hitherto harmed us little; but some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the light into the peace and safety of a new dark age."

I don't agree with his statement but it feels familiar after reading the books I recommended to you. This stuff has scale and is scary, the last person to seriously tinker with the subject on this level was Karl Marx.

That is why Patri's ideas may eventually win the day, but I leave you to it.

Re: Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

#222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you get from reducing voter fraud to it being a bad thing for elections. If the problem is that some basic form of government I.D. is hard to come by then fix that, not make it so anyone can walk in and vote. The other stuff about making polling places close early and stuff, I agree, is riduculous, but I don't see how requiring proper identification is a bad thing.

> not make it so anyone can walk in and vote This is not how it works now. Even without photo ID, a voter must confirm that they are registered before they are permitted to vote. At my precinct this consists of giving my full name and address, which the poll worker confirms against a list they have of currently registered voters. If you wanted to steal my vote, you would need to know in which precinct I'm registered,…

Not impossible? In today's world finding your full name and address is incredibly easy. Yes, finding which precinct you vote in isn't as easy, but I don't understand why the system is such that having a government issued I.D. is so difficult to obtain. If that's really stopping people from voting, then there's something wrong with our DMVs, etc.

Re: Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

#223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you get from reducing voter fraud to it being a bad thing for elections. If the problem is that some basic form of government I.D. is hard to come by then fix that, not make it so anyone can walk in and vote. The other stuff about making polling places close early and stuff, I agree, is riduculous, but I don't see how requiring proper identification is a bad thing.

As I understand it, in many (most?) places voter fraud was already pretty rare. If that's the case, then it's not hard to see how a "solution" to the problem of voter fraud could actually prevent more legitimate votes than illegitimate votes simply by making things slightly more difficult for some or all legitimate voters.

Pretty rare? Ok, it's pretty rare that people try my door handle at night, but I'm still not going to leave it unlocked. I think voting is a pretty serious issue, if we're meant to take to it seriously.

Re: Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

#224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you get from reducing voter fraud to it being a bad thing for elections. If the problem is that some basic form of government I.D. is hard to come by then fix that, not make it so anyone can walk in and vote. The other stuff about making polling places close early and stuff, I agree, is riduculous, but I don't see how requiring proper identification is a bad thing.

Giving people government IDs is not a trivial problem to solve. Its costs a lot and is hard, while allowing anyone to vote really increases voter turn out (and generally the rates of this type of fraud are very low)

Well, I don't think the fact that it's difficult to do implies we should just give up on it.

Re: Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

#225

My favorite part of the article (so far): > “My problem is that when my friends get drunk they talk about the ways the world will end. After a Dutch lab modified the H5N1 bird-flu virus, five years ago, making it super contagious, the chance of a lethal synthetic virus being released in the next twenty years became, well, nonzero. The other most popular scenarios would be A.I. that attacks us and nations fighting wit…

Interesting, so sama is a prepper... and he knows that gold will be the only thing with some value left after a financial armaggedon...

It's a resilient monetary Schelling point, yes ;)

Re: Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

#226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> not make it so anyone can walk in and vote This is not how it works now. Even without photo ID, a voter must confirm that they are registered before they are permitted to vote. At my precinct this consists of giving my full name and address, which the poll worker confirms against a list they have of currently registered voters. If you wanted to steal my vote, you would need to know in which precinct I'm registered,…

Not impossible? In today's world finding your full name and address is incredibly easy. Yes, finding which precinct you vote in isn't as easy, but I don't understand why the system is such that having a government issued I.D. is so difficult to obtain. If that's really stopping people from voting, then there's something wrong with our DMVs, etc.

If you want to steal my vote, specifically, you can certainly do it. Better get there early though, I vote in the morning.

To scale such an effort up to materially affect an election would be incredibly difficult to do, and easy to spot.

> If that's really stopping people from voting, then there's something wrong with our DMVs, etc.

The DMV sucks: this is news?

Re: Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

#227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I understand it, in many (most?) places voter fraud was already pretty rare. If that's the case, then it's not hard to see how a "solution" to the problem of voter fraud could actually prevent more legitimate votes than illegitimate votes simply by making things slightly more difficult for some or all legitimate voters.

Pretty rare? Ok, it's pretty rare that people try my door handle at night, but I'm still not going to leave it unlocked. I think voting is a pretty serious issue, if we're meant to take to it seriously.

If you had no history of break-ins in your neighborhood, and your door continually malfunctioned and locked you out on a weekly basis, you'd probably end up leaving it unlocked.

Re: Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

#228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> not make it so anyone can walk in and vote This is not how it works now. Even without photo ID, a voter must confirm that they are registered before they are permitted to vote. At my precinct this consists of giving my full name and address, which the poll worker confirms against a list they have of currently registered voters. If you wanted to steal my vote, you would need to know in which precinct I'm registered,…

Not impossible? In today's world finding your full name and address is incredibly easy. Yes, finding which precinct you vote in isn't as easy, but I don't understand why the system is such that having a government issued I.D. is so difficult to obtain. If that's really stopping people from voting, then there's something wrong with our DMVs, etc.

> If that's really stopping people from voting, then there's something wrong with our DMVs, etc.

Bingo? :)

-------

A -> B -> C

B -> C

But shitty DMV's aside, even if (A) is near negligible effort (which we'd probably both say isn't true for DMV's), then the first process will always stop people from voting compared to the second, right? no matter how "easy" (A) is. Engagement funnels FTW :)

Re: Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

#229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Giving people government IDs is not a trivial problem to solve. Its costs a lot and is hard, while allowing anyone to vote really increases voter turn out (and generally the rates of this type of fraud are very low)

Well, I don't think the fact that it's difficult to do implies we should just give up on it.

Right! And let's force people to do 20 pushups before voting too. Sure it's hard, and will exclude a lot of people, but it will be just as effective as a photo ID at preventing voter fraud.

Re: Sam Altman’s Manifest Destiny

#230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, I don't think the fact that it's difficult to do implies we should just give up on it.

Right! And let's force people to do 20 pushups before voting too. Sure it's hard, and will exclude a lot of people, but it will be just as effective as a photo ID at preventing voter fraud.

What?
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