Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video] • Hacker News Board

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#711

Post by khattam » Wed, Sep 28, 2016, 4:51 AM UTC

brey wrote: post #235

mikeash wrote: post #148

Some of the comments here make me think of crabs in a pot pulling down the ones who try to climb out. Nobody's making you participate in this venture. If you don't like it, then you're free to go do whatever it is you do like. You might think Musk could better direct his efforts and resources elsewhere, but most other billionaires don't do anything all that interesting, they just invest their money in mundane stuff,…

There's a phrase I'm fond of: The man who says it can't be done needs to get out of the way of the man who's doing it.

There's a phrase I'm fond of:

As long as you don't want my money for it, I'll be more than happy to help you get the fuck out. I hope you never return.

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#712

Post by dredmorbius » Wed, Sep 28, 2016, 4:53 AM UTC

nickik wrote: post #686

grkvlt wrote: post #590

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As of 17 September 2016, there have been 310 manned spaceflights [...] 8 of which were sub-orbital [1] There have been 302 manned orbital launches according to [1] and from adding up the successful launches in [2] there seem to have been a total of 5057 orbital launches so far, in the 70 or so years of spaceflight. Apparently the Mars fleet needs from 3 to 5 tanker launches per manned craft, so this program will re…

> Assuming one in five are crewed, with 100 crew per vehicle, that means 3000 deaths over the life of the program. A failure in the rocket does not mean everybody dies. There is a launch abort system for that. Musk has confirmed this after the presentation.

Launch abort should provide a safety margin on launch. It does less well in other segments of the mission, such as deep space, reentry, or landing. If you're looking at deep space missions, there've been issues at all of these.

There are also the instances of missions (Japan fairly recently in a Venus probe) where issues affecting an unmanned flight but not causing failure of the mission, would result in failure of a manned flight (expenditure of all life support resources).

The estimates here do suggest some significant loss of life will be expected. That's not unheard of in voyages of discovery, colonisation, and exploration.

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#713

Post by pjscott » Wed, Sep 28, 2016, 4:59 AM UTC

banach wrote: post #500

The SpaceXes of the age of colonization, such as the East India Company, used to sell shares to fund their voyages. I was a bit surprised not to hear Musk mention this as a funding option, since he just delivered the greatest Kickstarter pitch of all time...

SpaceX has raised quite a bit of money from private investors with long time horizons, so that option definitely hasn't escaped their notice.

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#714

Post by knowaveragejoe » Wed, Sep 28, 2016, 5:08 AM UTC

guelo wrote: post #540

mikeash wrote: post #148

Some of the comments here make me think of crabs in a pot pulling down the ones who try to climb out. Nobody's making you participate in this venture. If you don't like it, then you're free to go do whatever it is you do like. You might think Musk could better direct his efforts and resources elsewhere, but most other billionaires don't do anything all that interesting, they just invest their money in mundane stuff,…

Yes! Everybody on this commenting forum that knows about the science or has any technical questions or doubts must shut up. Only adoring reverent fawning must be allowed.

This would be relevant were that the point OP was making.

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#715

Post by knowaveragejoe » Wed, Sep 28, 2016, 5:08 AM UTC

guelo wrote: post #540

mikeash wrote: post #148

Some of the comments here make me think of crabs in a pot pulling down the ones who try to climb out. Nobody's making you participate in this venture. If you don't like it, then you're free to go do whatever it is you do like. You might think Musk could better direct his efforts and resources elsewhere, but most other billionaires don't do anything all that interesting, they just invest their money in mundane stuff,…

Yes! Everybody on this commenting forum that knows about the science or has any technical questions or doubts must shut up. Only adoring reverent fawning must be allowed.

This would be relevant were that the point OP was making.

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#716

Post by knowaveragejoe » Wed, Sep 28, 2016, 5:08 AM UTC

guelo wrote: post #540

mikeash wrote: post #148

Some of the comments here make me think of crabs in a pot pulling down the ones who try to climb out. Nobody's making you participate in this venture. If you don't like it, then you're free to go do whatever it is you do like. You might think Musk could better direct his efforts and resources elsewhere, but most other billionaires don't do anything all that interesting, they just invest their money in mundane stuff,…

Yes! Everybody on this commenting forum that knows about the science or has any technical questions or doubts must shut up. Only adoring reverent fawning must be allowed.

This would be relevant were that the point OP was making.

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#717

Post by dredmorbius » Wed, Sep 28, 2016, 5:11 AM UTC

wwarner wrote: post #636

I'm skeptical for two reasons. Living on Mars won't be like living in California at all. And two, building a colony there will be very, very, even catastrophically costly, so yes it will hurt everyone else who chooses not to participate. There are only so many platinum mines. Resources should be focused here. Think about it: how much water and air have left Earth to date? A miniscule amount, all due to space explorat…

A statistic I've run across recently is that up to 1/4 of all of Earth's original endowment of water has boiled off into space, as dissociated hydrogen.

Earth has been through a lot, it turns out.

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#718

Post by Tomte » Wed, Sep 28, 2016, 5:11 AM UTC

mikeash wrote: post #620

hasbroslasher wrote: post #565

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Criticism is good and the world needs more of it to thrive. It's not going to kill you (or Elon Musk, for that matter) to have some disagree with them. Forums were made for this very reason! 1. Part of participating in humanity is being critical. Part of participating in anything is being critical. If people have complaints, it doesn't harm you to hear them out. If you only seek to have your beliefs validated via the…

Criticism is fine. I don't like mindless criticism. I must have written my original comment poorly, because a lot of people seem to have come away with the impression that I don't want to see any comments that aren't fawning. That's not it at all! I just don't want to see knee-jerk stupid negative comments that add no value to the discussion. These do cause harm, because they waste time and derail conversations that…

But there are just as many knee-jerk stupid positive comments, they are just as much damaging, and you singled out the negative ones.

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#719

Post by kirrent » Wed, Sep 28, 2016, 5:12 AM UTC

nixos wrote: post #472

Did he talk about the future land ownership/governmentship of his colony? Will it be a personal dictatorship of Elon? Unlike Earth, once you're there, there's nowhere to go without his blessing. You can't just "move next door". And knowing how "locked down" his Tesla cars are, it'll be interesting to see how he'll deal with a rebellious colony.

He didn't, but the outer space treaty would make any claim to ownership of land invalid.

In the past he's discussed direct democracy as a preferred form of governance for smaller colonies with all/most laws having sunset provisions requiring them to be debated/voted upon on renewal.

Re: Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species [video]

#720

Post by nurettin » Wed, Sep 28, 2016, 5:15 AM UTC

mikeash wrote: post #148

Some of the comments here make me think of crabs in a pot pulling down the ones who try to climb out. Nobody's making you participate in this venture. If you don't like it, then you're free to go do whatever it is you do like. You might think Musk could better direct his efforts and resources elsewhere, but most other billionaires don't do anything all that interesting, they just invest their money in mundane stuff,…

I came here to learn from "armchair experts" about the challenges that lie ahead for such forays. Instead I am seeing that the discussion devolved to over-sensitive drivel. This might not be your initial intention, but you caused this.

HN bunch is courteous and precise and that is generally best applied to topics which require expertise. You triggered them to defensive mode and by now most are accusing you of fanboyism in the most courteous and precise way possible.

I hope you set an example to future commenters on what not to write.