Earlier quoted context omitted.
Put gardener, housekeeper, personal trainer, and pet care on the 'obvious next targets for automation' bin. I really don't think the other ones are safe. Just that it's not obvious that they aren't.
So what technology do we need to automate away personal trainer jobs, and when do you think the purge will be complete?
As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income
191–200 of 213 posts
Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income
#192Every time I hear arguments about basic incomes, I think of universe 25. http://mysteriousuniverse.org/2015/03/the-amazing-rise-and-f... Fundamentally, we're all animals and due to physics and material constraints, there's scarcity involved. By giving a basic income, we're pretty much ignoring the fact that eventually we will run out of water and food and manufactured goods.
Why would we run out of any of those things? We can achieve water, food, and goods sustainably. There is plenty to go around as long as population growth is kept in check, which based on current trends seems to be happening by itself.
Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income
#193Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Varoufakis' argument is that since the state has been taxing the productive to fund research, that gives it a moral right to tax the productive some more. Regardless of if the research done prior to WW2 was funded privately or publicly, that knowledge is part of our shared culture heritage. The fact is, regardless of how well they run their hotels, the Hiltons could not be where they are without the travelers who p…
The government is needed to enforce the laws. This does not mean the goverment needs to redistribute wealth, regulate business or manage the economy. A government which stuck to this role could be funded by tax rates of about 5-8%. My ideal society would have said funds made by voluntary donations. This is a far-off ideal, but it is achievable - unless you think humans cannot form a society without coercion.
> This does not mean the goverment needs to redistribute wealth, regulate business or manage the economy.
Regulating business, managing the economy, and redistributing wealth are not strictly necessary roles for the government.
However, having a government that a good job of doing those roles increases economic efficiency and social well being.
We don't HAVE to have public education, but public education dramaticly increases the productive output of a society.
We don't HAVE to have the government regulating business, but having government imposed standards that are well thought out increases consumer trust, decreases economic risk, decreases economic friction, and increases economic efficiency.
We don't HAVE to have the government distributing a basic income, but I think gradually replacing the minimum wage with a basic income will increase economic efficiency (lower labor costs) without the corresponding deflationary drop in demand. There is obviously a limit to how much we as a society can afford to provide as a UBI. I don't claim know what that limit is (I suspect it is currently well below the poverty line), but we can find it using gradual increases to UBI and decreases to the minimum wage.
We want out government to fulfill these roles because it makes our society safer, fairer and more efficient. We could probably get by with 5-8% tax rates, but the society we would live in would be much poorer.
> My ideal society would have said funds made by voluntary donations. This is a far-off ideal, but it is achievable - unless you think humans cannot form a society without coercion.
Sure, one day that would be great. One day we will have free energy, benevolent AIs, and instantaneous transportation anywhere in the galaxy (i.e. no scarcity). Until then, we will have to depend on coercion like ever other society in human history has.
Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income
#194Earlier quoted context omitted.
> There are lots of things that will likely never be cost effective to automate or are impossible to automate. Could you give examples that are capable of providing living wages to 160-250 million people, in the US alone? Technology has completely destroyed the value in human labor for most industries, in much the way we no longer use horses for farming, and is rapidly doing the same to "white collar" jobs. I'm hones…
Domestic labor for highly productive individuals. If you are a high productivity software engineer, trader or doctor, there is no reason any of your time should be devoted to driving, doing laundry or cleaning your bathroom. Also, I'm not sure where your "160-250 million people" comes from. That's exactly how many workers there are today, many of whom are in no danger of having their jobs automated.
welcome to mexico and india
Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income
#195The Altman quote is on target "I think it’s good to start studying this early. I’m fairly confident that at some point in the future, as technology continues to eliminate traditional jobs and massive new wealth gets created, we’re going to see some version of this at a national scale." However, it will likely be called something different in the near-term in order to gather momentum. Often the argument focuses on the…
People who seriously think a basic income future is desirable should invest the bulk of their research efforts in automation technology. How do you build a fully automated farm? How do you build a fully automated factory and logistics network? How do you build a fully automated hospital? How do you build robots capable of maintaining and fixing all these automated systems? All these things are way beyond current tech…
It isn't all or nothing. For farms, factories and hospitals, full automation would be desirable but we might not achieve that in a very long time. But what if we reach, say, 20% in ten years, 50% in twenty and 80% in thirty. At some point we are going to have to figure out what the increasing number of unemployed people are going to live of. Why not start early?
Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income
#196Earlier quoted context omitted.
Die out or be reduced? If we're talking about being reduced, I'd say 20 years from now the industry will be 50% of its current levels for paid human personal trainers. I'd predict the turning point will be about 3 years after VR becomes mass market. There's still going to remain a market for the human touch, as you say, so die out doesn't seem appropriate. Also, I should clarify, I do want a world where people help e…
20yrs... ok. When do you think it will stop growing?
Is there a personal trainer that you can wear around your wrist, and possibly interface with a biometric chip inside your body that measures sugars/caloric intake and sends you automated feedback like: "Hey, you're overeating, is something wrong? Are you emotional eating?" -- or that charts and tracks every last ounce of calories burned, and can literally quantify the entire metabolic output of your body in a given day?
What about one that can track which workouts actually keep you motivated longer, which diet foods you like better, just by watching your behavior?
-- Nothing like this exists today, but it will, eventually. AI will be a lot like the AI in HER and it won't be very long of a wait, probably in 20 years or so..
Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income
#197I seriously doubt it could be realistically implemented. More probable outcome is ballooning law enforcement costs due to significant fraction of population becoming unemployable and resorting to crime, and almost endless, Japan-style economic stagnation in all developed countries. Sorry for sounding pessimist. This time it gets serious and software is going to really eat the world. By the way in some countries (like…
It won't happen in USA first. Too much ideological baggage will prevent USA from believing it is possible (and actually oppose people who try it) before it is actually implemented and working in other countries.
I would like to believe that a dynamic EU country will implement it first but actually my money is on China. They fear riots, they need to keep people's income growing (even steady is not an option) and they don't mind being called communists.
This change will happen, but Trumpland won't herald it.
Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income
#198Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is a bit of a Luddite viewpoint. There will be some ups and downs as people adjust to the need for different skill sets however, automation won't simply wipe out any need for human labor. There are lots of things that will likely never be cost effective to automate or are impossible to automate.
It's pretty likely that "automation won't simply wipe out any need for human labor" (or at least not for a long time.) The problem is that we seem set on using the minimum wage to ensure a basic level of income. This means that we HAVE to make sure we have enough jobs for everyone, and that all of those jobs HAVE to produce enough economic value for the employer for them to provide that basic level of income. The res…
The problem is not that it will wipe out ALL need for human labor, but a lot of it.
Just truck drivers - millions of people getting unemployed. And don't paint a too romantic picture... a lot of them will NOT be qualified for another job.
We are also using software to enable people to perform tasks normally done by experts.
Drafting architectural plans is a recent example. The hand - drawing has been replaced by CAD software, and a LOT of architects now do these themselves or with little staff in-house.
I work in the financial sector, and supportive applications will enable "normal" client supporters to sell Investment packages.
Of course WITHOUT them really learning shit about investments .. result: Less experts needed (first step)
Second step: Automated consulting / online use by the customer.
Not even AI needed.
Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income
#199We are approaching a level of technology which is not human-oriented but software-oriented: the crucial idea here is that the transition will be not about "jobs will be harder or require more intelligence" - its about the emergence of artificial labor pool that is inherently better, smarter and less demanding. There is no way to "retrain people" to compete with robots, there is only "retreat to segments" where automa…
The company probabaly can't entirely be replaced by machines because there would be still a need for someone who is familiar with decent tech and is responsible for selection of technology stack, because there would be a number of competing AI workers manufacturers.
Re: As Our Jobs Are Automated, Some Say We'll Need a Guaranteed Basic Income
#200Earlier quoted context omitted.
Really? You think that's more realistic than just taking it from the top 0.1%? There was a time in this country for nearly 40 years where the top tax bracket was above 75%, and for quite a while it was 91%, and for a short while it was 94%. Basically it was a policy of not letting a small number of people take all of the marbles. There is, in fact, a way to avoid that tax, it's called start a new business or expand o…
Those sky high tax rates were only applied to earned income. Capital gains was never anywhere near that high. All that means is the owners of capital stay rich and nobody can earn their way into being rich. You have to invest or already be rich. If you tried taxing capital that much they'd flee the country.
"If you tried taxing capital that much they'd flee the country."
I keep encountering various forms of this. Can someone explain why rich people who do not significantly spend, invest, pay taxes or otherwise contribute "fleeing the country" is bad?