Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs • Hacker News Board

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#41

Post by stale2002 » Sun, Sep 25, 2016, 5:04 PM UTC

fjjrxcbdhx wrote: post #14

GarrisonPrime wrote: post #7

>“If you can get rid of the drivers, those people are out of jobs, but the cost of moving all those goods goes down significantly,” Kaplan said. This is a major point of automation. Yes, many jobs will be lost. But the prices of many goods will decrease. The problem is that the current transition threatens to be so rapid as to seriously disrupt society. Perhaps new jobs will eventually be created to make up for those…

This assumption that everything will be cheaper seems a bit disingenuous, because why would these companies want to automate themselves so badly if they weren't going to keep most of the savings as profit? Even if prices were lowered by a few percent for some goods thanks to cheaper shipping, that's little help when you have no source of income. This will only exacerbate the demand-limited economic slump we're curren…

Because of supply and demand and competition.

If companies could squeeze more money out of customers why wouldn't they just do so right now by raising prices?

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#42

Post by stale2002 » Sun, Sep 25, 2016, 5:07 PM UTC

FussyZeus wrote: post #37

seunosewa wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Competition all but guarantees it, if there's competition.

That's what I'm getting at. How many people price shop for household items and food? The majority I know have a brand that they buy all the time because of any number of reasons, and if the price doesn't go up but just stays where it is, how likely are they to change?

They why wouldn't companies just do that right now? If companies can make more money, they would already be doing that by raising prices!

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#43

Post by harryh » Sun, Sep 25, 2016, 5:10 PM UTC

enraged_camel wrote: post #32

pcrh wrote: post #20

We don't have self-driving trains yet, except in very tightly controlled environments. So I think it's going to take more than a few test runs to show that self-driving trucks will displace drivers anytime soon.

Make no mistake: technologies like this -- which bring massive cost-savings to companies -- tend to arrive sooner than most people think. The incentives are just too big to ignore. Mining companies in Australia are already using self-driving trucks to transport ore. http://www.businessinsider.com/rio-tinto-using-self-driving-... And self-driving cars are just around the corner in the USA. Trucks will follow maybe hal…

You think cars come before trucks? Trucks seem easier to me. Driving 500 miles on a very standardized highway seems like an easier problem than negotiating city streets and picking up hard to identify passengers from a curb.

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#44

Post by fjjrxcbdhx » Sun, Sep 25, 2016, 5:10 PM UTC

stale2002 wrote: post #41

fjjrxcbdhx wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This assumption that everything will be cheaper seems a bit disingenuous, because why would these companies want to automate themselves so badly if they weren't going to keep most of the savings as profit? Even if prices were lowered by a few percent for some goods thanks to cheaper shipping, that's little help when you have no source of income. This will only exacerbate the demand-limited economic slump we're curren…

Because of supply and demand and competition. If companies could squeeze more money out of customers why wouldn't they just do so right now by raising prices?

Because they have far greater leverage over labor markets than they do over the market for their product. You don't have to raise prices in a fickle consumer market when you can just make your profits off the much less elastic labor market instead.

They only have to keep prices the same or negligibly lower in order to profit from this proposal.

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#45

Post by topkai22 » Sun, Sep 25, 2016, 5:16 PM UTC

The transition won't be good for people who currently drive semi-trucks or who aspire to. However, there are some reasons that this may actually take a bit longer to fully play out than it appears. To start, there is the transition time from existing capital stock of trucks (those things are hundreds of thousands of dollars); there are also many activities that drivers do that aren't just driving- delivery drivers are often responsible for stocking and displaying the goods they bring; there are various paperwork issues that drivers deal with; there is the care and feeding of these large complex machines in often austere circumstances.

I imagine you'll see a lot of hybridization of activities before (or if) you see the elimination of the human- such as a human riding "shotgun" and dealing with any issues or activities that arise when the truck is stopped, or where you see more humans employed in servicing and response roles.

That being said, hauling shipping containers around the port of long beach is probably on its way out. I feel for those drivers.

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#46

Post by FussyZeus » Sun, Sep 25, 2016, 5:20 PM UTC

stale2002 wrote: post #42

FussyZeus wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's what I'm getting at. How many people price shop for household items and food? The majority I know have a brand that they buy all the time because of any number of reasons, and if the price doesn't go up but just stays where it is, how likely are they to change?

They why wouldn't companies just do that right now? If companies can make more money, they would already be doing that by raising prices!

If the cost of manufacture and shipping goes down, and the price stays the same, the company makes more money and it isn't immediately obvious to the consumer that anything changed.

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#47

Post by barpet » Sun, Sep 25, 2016, 5:20 PM UTC

I am becoming afraid of what I call excessive capitalism. Do not take me wrong I love capitalism as it is (coming from a post-communist and now socialist country). But what I see especially in the US and China and what I call excessive capitalism is worrying.

What I mean by this term is gathering too much wealth and stripping too much money and power out of masses. I am all for automation and killing obsolete jobs but it needs to be done in a much better way than it has been done in the past.

Do not take me wrong. I have no problems with millionaires or billionaires. The problem is with distribution and concentration of the money. I am not fine with people like Travis Kalanick who will sooner or later get rid of all of the taxi drivers without thinking much about the consequences. This is not only about taxi drivers or America or the entire world. It's impacting humanity as a whole. I do not think that basic income or taxing Uber or banning Uber is the solution. I do not think re-educating these people is the solution either. The world does not need an army or mediocre programmers or doctors or whatever you think they could co.

People want to work. And they are not doing it just because of the money. It's because they want to contribute. Build something for themselves or society. Most of the people that retire suffer from being unable to continue contributing to the society. They are literally bored and feel useless.

I think also that people are getting tired of corporations or big companies in general. They are getting tired of globalized interconnected world. They are getting tired of capitalism. Today you go to a shop shopping for some "quality" made shoes and everything you get is mediocre shit built in some sweatshop in China or Bangladesh. Regardless of price or brand. If you really care you have to put too much time into researching this what is and what is not worth your money. They simply are tired of this freedom. People seek stability and want to have just good life. I think the most important problem in our society is how to ensure stability and good life for most of the people.

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#48

Post by topkai22 » Sun, Sep 25, 2016, 5:21 PM UTC

monkmartinez wrote: post #40

SIGALARM wrote: post #19

sounds like the self-driving trucks would need to be protected by security teams, otherwise they may be susceptible to out of work pirates.

This really needs more attention/consideration. Self-driving anything seems like a ripe target, as the perceived "harm" is to a corporation not a human driver/operator. That is, theives will not have to hurt anyone to get the goods.

This seems like it has already been "solved" by trains- moving targets are hard, cargo is anonymous, stationary targets are in semi-secured railyards, and shrinkage is part of the cost of doing business.

Who wants to hijack a truck and find its full of breakfast cereal?

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#49

Post by gaius » Sun, Sep 25, 2016, 5:23 PM UTC

fjjrxcbdhx wrote: post #14

GarrisonPrime wrote: post #7

>“If you can get rid of the drivers, those people are out of jobs, but the cost of moving all those goods goes down significantly,” Kaplan said. This is a major point of automation. Yes, many jobs will be lost. But the prices of many goods will decrease. The problem is that the current transition threatens to be so rapid as to seriously disrupt society. Perhaps new jobs will eventually be created to make up for those…

This assumption that everything will be cheaper seems a bit disingenuous, because why would these companies want to automate themselves so badly if they weren't going to keep most of the savings as profit? Even if prices were lowered by a few percent for some goods thanks to cheaper shipping, that's little help when you have no source of income. This will only exacerbate the demand-limited economic slump we're curren…

Right, the price of anything is what people are willing to pay, there is minimal correlation with production costs. If the inputs get cheaper profits will go up but the consumer will pay the same.

Do we see massive price drops whenever any company outsources their call centre to India? Nope, the price stays the same and the execs pocket the difference in bonuses.

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#50

Post by harryh » Sun, Sep 25, 2016, 5:25 PM UTC

FussyZeus wrote: post #46

stale2002 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They why wouldn't companies just do that right now? If companies can make more money, they would already be doing that by raising prices!

If the cost of manufacture and shipping goes down, and the price stays the same, the company makes more money and it isn't immediately obvious to the consumer that anything changed.

Historically prices of goods to consumers have dropped dramatically as automation and globalization have reduced the costs of production. Your hypothesis that most of the gains would be captured by producers in the form of increased profits is wrong for almost all consumer goods.