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Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

latimes.com

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Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#31

Post by ChemicalWarfare »

GarrisonPrime wrote: post #7

>“If you can get rid of the drivers, those people are out of jobs, but the cost of moving all those goods goes down significantly,” Kaplan said. This is a major point of automation. Yes, many jobs will be lost. But the prices of many goods will decrease. The problem is that the current transition threatens to be so rapid as to seriously disrupt society. Perhaps new jobs will eventually be created to make up for those…

>>> Yes, many jobs will be lost. But the prices of many goods will decrease.

This remains to be seen. When corporations find ways to cut costs this typically results in higher profits (which there's nothing wrong with that per se) with consumers maybe seeing some cost reduction but not necessarily. Outsourcing of manufacturing jobs is a prime example of that.

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#32

Post by enraged_camel »

pcrh wrote: post #20

We don't have self-driving trains yet, except in very tightly controlled environments. So I think it's going to take more than a few test runs to show that self-driving trucks will displace drivers anytime soon.

Make no mistake: technologies like this -- which bring massive cost-savings to companies -- tend to arrive sooner than most people think. The incentives are just too big to ignore.

Mining companies in Australia are already using self-driving trucks to transport ore.

http://www.businessinsider.com/rio-tinto-using-self-driving-...

And self-driving cars are just around the corner in the USA. Trucks will follow maybe half a decade after that, at most.

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#33

Post by Ressuder »

sverige wrote: post #18
criley2 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"If you're talking about what I first thought of, which is things like groceries, housewares, the "every day things" that we all buy and consume without really thinking, I'm not sure that A: The prices on these items could go much lower than they already are and remain profitable" This is the wrong analysis. Price of goods is say, (Supplier Cost)+(Transit to Store)+(Profit Margin)=MSRP You're saying that MSRP can't…

But there's no guarantee that MSRP will go down. More likely that PM will increase.

It seems wildly unlikely that no one would try to undercut their competitors, since it's obviously a viable business at current profit margins.

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#34

Post by fjjrxcbdhx »

harryh wrote: post #28
fjjrxcbdhx wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regardless, that's not going to help an economy whose primary problem is a consumer base who can no longer afford to purchase goods in sufficient numbers.

I'm skeptical that you've identified the primary problem in the US economy. I would definitely rank two things higher: 1) Challenges that come about due to an aging population 2) An overall slow down in innovation (Cowen's "Great Stagnation" hypothesis)

An unbalanced young-old demographic ratio is indicative of worsening economic conditions for average people. Looking at Japan, they have a population crisis because there's no time to start a family when you have lots of mandatory unpaid overtime. Thankfully we're not quite that far gone yet, but we're headed in that direction and are starting to face similar demographic problems.

Innovation is slowing down because companies are preoccupied with irrationally slashing labor expenses, and R&D tends to be quite expensive so it gets cut significantly. The result is less income for consumers, who in turn buy fewer goods, which ultimately leads to even more cuts for labor.

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#35

Post by gthtjtkt »

GarrisonPrime wrote: post #7

>“If you can get rid of the drivers, those people are out of jobs, but the cost of moving all those goods goes down significantly,” Kaplan said. This is a major point of automation. Yes, many jobs will be lost. But the prices of many goods will decrease. The problem is that the current transition threatens to be so rapid as to seriously disrupt society. Perhaps new jobs will eventually be created to make up for those…

> But the prices of many goods will decrease.

Yes, and if our billionaire overlords are feeling generous, perhaps some of those savings will "trickle down" to us peasants.

But probably not...

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#36

Post by alpineidyll3 »

okket wrote: post #30

I guess it will more likely pan out like flying: You still need humans to steer the colossus through cities and other complicated terrains, to keep them running, for emergency situations, for the insurance company and, maybe, for the unions. But most of the time the truck will drive on autopilot. Slowly humans will fade completely from the picture, but it will not be a hard cut. Also, we are far away from auto-fixing…

It will be a slow-motion economic calamity, similar to how internet sourcing of materials and sales has gutted the lower middle class. The generation in the out-automated job never retrains or productively re-enters the workforce. Instead they turn around and vote for people who want to flip over the economic card table.

Democratic capitalism has to get this isht figured out, or the next century is going to be unpleasant.

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#37

Post by FussyZeus »

seunosewa wrote: post #29
sverige wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But there's no guarantee that MSRP will go down. More likely that PM will increase.

Competition all but guarantees it, if there's competition.

That's what I'm getting at. How many people price shop for household items and food? The majority I know have a brand that they buy all the time because of any number of reasons, and if the price doesn't go up but just stays where it is, how likely are they to change?

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#38

Post by Ressuder »

pcrh wrote: post #20

We don't have self-driving trains yet, except in very tightly controlled environments. So I think it's going to take more than a few test runs to show that self-driving trucks will displace drivers anytime soon.

I don't see what the two have to do with each other. Technical reasons aren't why we don't have self-driving trains, it's just that the economy of things becomes very different when your vehicle is about a kilometre or two long compared to maybe 25 metres.

(Yeah, yeah, I know about the kilometre long Australian semi-trailer trucks, but those aren't really practical in most situations...)

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#39

Post by jfoster »

pcrh wrote: post #20

We don't have self-driving trains yet, except in very tightly controlled environments. So I think it's going to take more than a few test runs to show that self-driving trucks will displace drivers anytime soon.

I think we could easily have self-driving trains if they were considered important. The cost savings (and safety improvement) of self-driving trains probably just isn't high enough for it to be treated with the same urgency as self-driving cars.

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#40

Post by monkmartinez »

SIGALARM wrote: post #19

sounds like the self-driving trucks would need to be protected by security teams, otherwise they may be susceptible to out of work pirates.

This really needs more attention/consideration. Self-driving anything seems like a ripe target, as the perceived "harm" is to a corporation not a human driver/operator. That is, theives will not have to hurt anyone to get the goods.
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