>“If you can get rid of the drivers, those people are out of jobs, but the cost of moving all those goods goes down significantly,” Kaplan said. This is a major point of automation. Yes, many jobs will be lost. But the prices of many goods will decrease. The problem is that the current transition threatens to be so rapid as to seriously disrupt society. Perhaps new jobs will eventually be created to make up for those…
Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs
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Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs
#12I'm surprised at how _few_ posts/articles like this there have been, so far: self-driving cars are taking off and are a big looming imminent threat to Uber/taxi/truck drivers. Every time I take an Uber now, I wonder if the driver realizes that his job will most likely be automated away in a couple of years.
There's way more posts/articles than warranted. Human drivers are going nowhere anytime soon. There's a lot of marketing about self-driving cars but nowhere enough actual technology to back it.
Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs
#13Truck drivers need to work with their union(s) to lobby for a law that says that only union members can own an autonomous driving agent. Problem solved - we have self-driving trucks but trucking companies must "hire" an agent via a union member. To become a union member, you'll still have to a rigorous apprenticeship and training program - and of course pay your union dues.
Sounds like featherbedding. Putting pointless people in the middle just to skim money from the process. Who benefits? Nobody but them. Reminds me of how the railroads had to pay into the pension fund for Firemen, long after steam engines were dead and gone. Just because.
The same way that the unions in NYC have forced the MTA to keep the hugely expensive, 100 year old backup control & signaling systems on the fully-automated lines even though it's 100% not necessary.
Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs
#14>“If you can get rid of the drivers, those people are out of jobs, but the cost of moving all those goods goes down significantly,” Kaplan said. This is a major point of automation. Yes, many jobs will be lost. But the prices of many goods will decrease. The problem is that the current transition threatens to be so rapid as to seriously disrupt society. Perhaps new jobs will eventually be created to make up for those…
This assumption that everything will be cheaper seems a bit disingenuous, because why would these companies want to automate themselves so badly if they weren't going to keep most of the savings as profit?
Even if prices were lowered by a few percent for some goods thanks to cheaper shipping, that's little help when you have no source of income. This will only exacerbate the demand-limited economic slump we're currently experiencing.
Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs
#15the turnover in that career is pretty damn high. having met many truckers, especially newly set on the road from school and such, like 9 out of 10 don't stick with it.
Wait for the shit storm when they attempt to fully automate ports
Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs
#16>“If you can get rid of the drivers, those people are out of jobs, but the cost of moving all those goods goes down significantly,” Kaplan said. This is a major point of automation. Yes, many jobs will be lost. But the prices of many goods will decrease. The problem is that the current transition threatens to be so rapid as to seriously disrupt society. Perhaps new jobs will eventually be created to make up for those…
I agree with most everything you've said, the one point that I would contest is: > Yes, many jobs will be lost. But the prices of many goods will decrease. If you're talking about what I first thought of, which is things like groceries, housewares, the "every day things" that we all buy and consume without really thinking, I'm not sure that A: The prices on these items could go much lower than they already are and re…
>"If you're talking about what I first thought of, which is things like groceries, housewares, the "every day things" that we all buy and consume without really thinking, I'm not sure that A: The prices on these items could go much lower than they already are and remain profitable"
This is the wrong analysis. Price of goods is say, (Supplier Cost)+(Transit to Store)+(Profit Margin)=MSRP
You're saying that MSRP can't go down without hurting Profit Margin.
He's saying, Transit to Store will decrease, allowing MSRP to decrease without affecting Supplier Cost or Profit Margin. (Or Profit Margin can increase while MSRP remains the same)
Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs
#17Truck drivers need to work with their union(s) to lobby for a law that says that only union members can own an autonomous driving agent. Problem solved - we have self-driving trucks but trucking companies must "hire" an agent via a union member. To become a union member, you'll still have to a rigorous apprenticeship and training program - and of course pay your union dues.
Only a small percentage of drivers are union members, mostly those in the LTL segment of the industry.
Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs
#18Earlier quoted context omitted.
I agree with most everything you've said, the one point that I would contest is: > Yes, many jobs will be lost. But the prices of many goods will decrease. If you're talking about what I first thought of, which is things like groceries, housewares, the "every day things" that we all buy and consume without really thinking, I'm not sure that A: The prices on these items could go much lower than they already are and re…
>"If you're talking about what I first thought of, which is things like groceries, housewares, the "every day things" that we all buy and consume without really thinking, I'm not sure that A: The prices on these items could go much lower than they already are and remain profitable" This is the wrong analysis. Price of goods is say, (Supplier Cost)+(Transit to Store)+(Profit Margin)=MSRP You're saying that MSRP can't…
But there's no guarantee that MSRP will go down. More likely that PM will increase.
Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs
#19sounds like the self-driving trucks would need to be protected by security teams, otherwise they may be susceptible to out of work pirates.
Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs
#20We don't have self-driving trains yet, except in very tightly controlled environments. So I think it's going to take more than a few test runs to show that self-driving trucks will displace drivers anytime soon.