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Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

latimes.com

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Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#21

Post by harryh »

fjjrxcbdhx wrote: post #14
GarrisonPrime wrote: post #7

>“If you can get rid of the drivers, those people are out of jobs, but the cost of moving all those goods goes down significantly,” Kaplan said. This is a major point of automation. Yes, many jobs will be lost. But the prices of many goods will decrease. The problem is that the current transition threatens to be so rapid as to seriously disrupt society. Perhaps new jobs will eventually be created to make up for those…

This assumption that everything will be cheaper seems a bit disingenuous, because why would these companies want to automate themselves so badly if they weren't going to keep most of the savings as profit? Even if prices were lowered by a few percent for some goods thanks to cheaper shipping, that's little help when you have no source of income. This will only exacerbate the demand-limited economic slump we're curren…

Companies will want to automate because if they don't they will go out of business because their competitors will.

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#22

Post by shams93 »

The basic premise going back to Jamestown is that if you don't work you don't eat this goes deep into the collective psyche of this country DC is entirely unprepared for these changes they still think unemployment is largely an issue of people having bad morality.

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#23

Post by kalleboo »

harryh wrote: post #21
fjjrxcbdhx wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This assumption that everything will be cheaper seems a bit disingenuous, because why would these companies want to automate themselves so badly if they weren't going to keep most of the savings as profit? Even if prices were lowered by a few percent for some goods thanks to cheaper shipping, that's little help when you have no source of income. This will only exacerbate the demand-limited economic slump we're curren…

Companies will want to automate because if they don't they will go out of business because their competitors will.

For the prime example of this - look at the global shipping market right now. It's going at a loss right now due to the largest shippers building massive ships to bring down the cost/kg/km down bringing overcapacity to an unsustainable level.

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#24

Post by xorgar831 »

GarrisonPrime wrote: post #7

>“If you can get rid of the drivers, those people are out of jobs, but the cost of moving all those goods goes down significantly,” Kaplan said. This is a major point of automation. Yes, many jobs will be lost. But the prices of many goods will decrease. The problem is that the current transition threatens to be so rapid as to seriously disrupt society. Perhaps new jobs will eventually be created to make up for those…

It might not be that sudden of a change, you may still need someone watching the truck remotely, so one truck driver could be responsible for multiple trucks. So you could have larger fleets with the same workforce too.

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#25

Post by nsgi »

mishchea wrote: post #5

I'm surprised at how _few_ posts/articles like this there have been, so far: self-driving cars are taking off and are a big looming imminent threat to Uber/taxi/truck drivers. Every time I take an Uber now, I wonder if the driver realizes that his job will most likely be automated away in a couple of years.

More like a couple of decades.

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#26

Post by fjjrxcbdhx »

harryh wrote: post #21
fjjrxcbdhx wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This assumption that everything will be cheaper seems a bit disingenuous, because why would these companies want to automate themselves so badly if they weren't going to keep most of the savings as profit? Even if prices were lowered by a few percent for some goods thanks to cheaper shipping, that's little help when you have no source of income. This will only exacerbate the demand-limited economic slump we're curren…

Companies will want to automate because if they don't they will go out of business because their competitors will.

Regardless, that's not going to help an economy whose primary problem is a consumer base who can no longer afford to purchase goods in sufficient numbers.

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#27

Post by afarrell »

fjjrxcbdhx wrote: post #14
GarrisonPrime wrote: post #7

>“If you can get rid of the drivers, those people are out of jobs, but the cost of moving all those goods goes down significantly,” Kaplan said. This is a major point of automation. Yes, many jobs will be lost. But the prices of many goods will decrease. The problem is that the current transition threatens to be so rapid as to seriously disrupt society. Perhaps new jobs will eventually be created to make up for those…

This assumption that everything will be cheaper seems a bit disingenuous, because why would these companies want to automate themselves so badly if they weren't going to keep most of the savings as profit? Even if prices were lowered by a few percent for some goods thanks to cheaper shipping, that's little help when you have no source of income. This will only exacerbate the demand-limited economic slump we're curren…

This depends on what the barriers to entry for starting a company. If the barriers to entry are low because you can buy self-driving software off-the-shelf for $20,000 then profits will be low. If the barriers to entry are high because the shipping is done by Uber, Google, etc then the profits will be high.

But you are right that it would increase economic inequality.

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#28

Post by harryh »

fjjrxcbdhx wrote: post #26
harryh wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Companies will want to automate because if they don't they will go out of business because their competitors will.

Regardless, that's not going to help an economy whose primary problem is a consumer base who can no longer afford to purchase goods in sufficient numbers.

I'm skeptical that you've identified the primary problem in the US economy. I would definitely rank two things higher:

1) Challenges that come about due to an aging population

2) An overall slow down in innovation (Cowen's "Great Stagnation" hypothesis)

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#29

Post by seunosewa »

sverige wrote: post #18
criley2 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"If you're talking about what I first thought of, which is things like groceries, housewares, the "every day things" that we all buy and consume without really thinking, I'm not sure that A: The prices on these items could go much lower than they already are and remain profitable" This is the wrong analysis. Price of goods is say, (Supplier Cost)+(Transit to Store)+(Profit Margin)=MSRP You're saying that MSRP can't…

But there's no guarantee that MSRP will go down. More likely that PM will increase.

Competition all but guarantees it, if there's competition.

Re: Self-driving trucks threaten one of America's top blue-collar jobs

#30

Post by okket »

I guess it will more likely pan out like flying: You still need humans to steer the colossus through cities and other complicated terrains, to keep them running, for emergency situations, for the insurance company and, maybe, for the unions. But most of the time the truck will drive on autopilot.

Slowly humans will fade completely from the picture, but it will not be a hard cut. Also, we are far away from auto-fixing trucks. So at least the repair crews will stay for long while.

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