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How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

nytimes.com

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Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#151

Post by jimmywanger »

cvwright wrote: post #149
jimmywanger wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Funny thing is that socialism tends to reject religion, but price controls originated in Christian thought. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Just_price What a lot of people don't realize is that prices aren't inherently good or bad in and of themselves, they just are . If somebody else is willing to pay 20k for a diamond, that's the price of a diamond. No amount of legislation or argument will drive down the price of a…

> What a lot of people don't realize is that prices aren't inherently good or bad in and of themselves, they just are. If somebody else is willing to pay 20k for a diamond, that's the price of a diamond. Arguably, even the early Christian thinkers like Acquinas agree with you on this. http://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2015/08/15435/

In theory, yes. But look at this following quote from the article:

> but was simply the current market price, with this important reservation: in cases of collusion or emergency, the public authorities retained the right to interfere and to impose a fair price.

In socialist governments, they see the free market as always "colluding" to cheat the working man. That's why they set unrealistically low prices for basic goods, like bread, and rail against producers for "colluding" because hey, most price costs about the same amount, so it has to be a coordinated effort while people are going hungry.

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#152

Post by mdemare »

matt_wulfeck wrote: post #26

Venezuela is a failed state at this point. I'm more than happy to personally take them as an example of why spending big on social programs doesn't produce long-lasting social benefits. I understand many people will find a point of disagreement here. This is especially true when corruption is rife. In countries with high corruption, it seems the very best thing to do is to limit as much as possible how much money flo…

Plenty of nations with high federal government spending do fine, plenty of nations with low federal spending do badly. On the whole, high spending is correlated to better outcomes.

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#153

Post by metaphorm »

matt_wulfeck wrote: post #145
tloble wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's not pretend you tried to make a well-researched and honest argument. The whole point of your comment was bullshit propaganda.

At what point did my comment switch from being my personal opinion to propaganda?

at the point you said this

> an example of why spending big on social programs doesn't produce long-lasting social benefits.

which is not a statement of opinion, but rather, is an unjustified assertion that conforms with your ideological agenda.

an opinion would have been something like "I prefer to vote for politicians that are fiscally conservative because I don't think the government has a good track record of implementing positive social change with spending programs"

but that's now what you said or how you said it. instead, you implied that social programs ANYWHERE AND EVERYWHERE are comparable in some meaningful way with a failed state that collapsed under the weight of corruption and authoritarian dictatorship.

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#154

Post by ars »

milcron wrote: post #125
ars wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> unless very determined action is taken to avoid it (like Norway) Norway is not immune. It's the current popular thing to say, but Norway will fall victim to it just like everyone else does. Look at some charts on their exports: 60%+ is energy. Look at their industry: Basically non-existent, except energy. Look at where young people are making their living: Energy. If (when?) the oil runs out (or people stop buying…

Still, they're certainly doing better than many other oil-rich nations.

That's true, but it's not exactly a high bar.

They gets lots of credit for being aware of the problem, but less credit for thinking they are doing better than they actually are.

It's too bad oil will be worth less eventually - otherwise they could just force themself to leave it in the ground, but the way things are going they had best convert it to cash as soon as possible.

It makes me wonder if it's economically long-term better for them to pretend not to have oil and develop their economy, vs. selling the oil.

Long term, which will give them more total cash?

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#156

Post by toddchambery »

jfoutz wrote: post #81
matt_wulfeck wrote: post #26

Venezuela is a failed state at this point. I'm more than happy to personally take them as an example of why spending big on social programs doesn't produce long-lasting social benefits. I understand many people will find a point of disagreement here. This is especially true when corruption is rife. In countries with high corruption, it seems the very best thing to do is to limit as much as possible how much money flo…

> I'm more than happy to personally take them as an example of why spending big on social programs doesn't produce long-lasting social benefits. Different markets have different needs. I disagree with socialism for all things. There are some things, where i think it's the best system we have. Air quality is a good example. Everybody needs air and it's hard to separate mine from yours. So, collective ownership with co…

This the ultimate policy question: What is a public good?

http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2010/12/10/131784161/what-...

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#157

Post by sgnelson »

matt_wulfeck wrote: post #100
cseelus wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sweden, Norway and to some degree Germany could be mentioned as successful examples.

Germany (as one example) has a social expenditure of 25% versus USA at 19%[0]. Switzerland is 19.4%. [0] https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=SOCX_AGG

It's not just how much, it's also what, who, how, where, and why.

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#158

Post by pascalxus »

jimmywanger wrote: post #83

Currency controls and price controls and government nationalization have destroyed Venezuela. Currency controls: there's a 1:10 exchange rate, dollars to bolivars, for essential imports, like food, medicine, etc. The black market exchange rate is about 1:1010. To get the good rate, you need connections. But hey, it's a pain in the ass to actually contact suppliers and get goods through customs, and you're capped at w…

Yes. Would someone please explain this all to residents of SF. We definitely need more economic education in this country - the voting public needs to understand these things. As thing get increasingly dire, I'm afraid, something like this will someday occur in the US.

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#159

Post by jimmywanger »

pascalxus wrote: post #158
jimmywanger wrote: post #83

Currency controls and price controls and government nationalization have destroyed Venezuela. Currency controls: there's a 1:10 exchange rate, dollars to bolivars, for essential imports, like food, medicine, etc. The black market exchange rate is about 1:1010. To get the good rate, you need connections. But hey, it's a pain in the ass to actually contact suppliers and get goods through customs, and you're capped at w…

Yes. Would someone please explain this all to residents of SF. We definitely need more economic education in this country - the voting public needs to understand these things. As thing get increasingly dire, I'm afraid, something like this will someday occur in the US.

It's not just economics. It's politics as well as a dash of military theory.

For instance, it's cheaper to produce steel and aluminum abroad than in the states. But we erect protective tariffs on steel and aluminum to keep those industries in the states so that in case war breaks out, our aggressors can't cut our supply lines, and we can keep churning out jet and tank parts.

But agreed, it's a fascinating field. Why do you restrict the explanation to residents of SF, rather than all citizens of the US?

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#160

Post by segmondy »

jimmywanger wrote: post #83

Currency controls and price controls and government nationalization have destroyed Venezuela. Currency controls: there's a 1:10 exchange rate, dollars to bolivars, for essential imports, like food, medicine, etc. The black market exchange rate is about 1:1010. To get the good rate, you need connections. But hey, it's a pain in the ass to actually contact suppliers and get goods through customs, and you're capped at w…

What you quoted for swapping dollars for bolivars doesn't make any sense, especially the back and forth to game the standard and black market rate.

This is the reality, when foreign government's peg their currency. It's usually when they are doing bad. So say you live in such a country and want to buy a good from the US or another country because you want to resell or do manufacturing. You need dollars. But all you have is your local currency in this case the bolivar. There is such a short supply of the dollar, because most of it is going out due to imports and less is coming in (little exports). You go to the govt to get some and most likely will be told there's none.

There usually is none too! the govt is spending all their little dollar buying more things they need and paying debt. At the end of the day, they have none, they find themselves in the negative. So trying to sell your bolivar for the USD? Good luck.

Desperate to keep your business afloat, you go to the black market, and you are willing to pay a lot for dollar. There is more demand for dollar than supply, so the dollar climbs and that's why people are willing to buy a dollar for their 1010 bolivar. Why would anyone do that? If you need to buy raw materials to produce, or maybe you need medicine. Since your country is in the shitters, no one wants your currency but dollars, euros, etc. The only way to survive is buy dollar,euro, pounds.

The reality is that to play that arbitrage between the dollar and bolivar is difficult. The politicians/govt/bankers are very corrupt and hoard all the cash that is suppose to be sold in the market. That 1:10 peg is if you are selling dollar for bolivar. If you are buying dollar, they will never sell it to you at 10, they will sell it for much higher or never. So who in the world will sell their dollar for 10 bolivar? Tourists. Not even foreign businesses.

If you are a foreign entity, you bring in $1, get 10 Bolivar, you do some sort of business, turn it into 100 bolivar. very nice, time to get out, you exchange it for USD. you get 10cents before cost of business and taxes. At this point, most foreign companies have closed up shop and are long gone.

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