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How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

nytimes.com

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Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#121

Post by RevHaze »

nnq wrote: post #38
wildmusings wrote: post #11

The wonders of socialism.

Sincere question: HOW? I mean, even if we assume a socialist economy is terribly inefficient, like operating at 50% of the efficiency a capitalist one, it still should be enough for sustaining a resource-rich country. WTF they are doing so wrong?! Are they under intense internal or external sabotage? Corruption is so bad? I mean, this is not some mid-African country with >50% of the population illiterate, bunch of ho…

From their perspective, the industries are there to support the people. The oil industry was making money while the government didn't have enough money to keep expanding social programs, so they nationalized the oil industry. They didn't know how to run the oil industry though, so yields fell through the floor and they couldn't produce or attract foreign investment back into the country due to concerns that as soon as the infrastructure got back up and running the government would just nationalize again.

Also see Zimbabwe's 2000 plan to redistribute farming wealth.

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#122

Post by SilasX »

mikeash wrote: post #73
metaphorm wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Venezuela is a case study in corruption, authoritarian dictatorship, rampant interference from outside states, and a multiple decades long brain-drain due to the aforementioned factors. this should not be held up as ANY KIND OF EXAMPLE whatever re: the efficacy of social safety net programs. it's simply a non-sequitur. the fact that you're even attempting to link them at all speaks poorly as to your own understanding…

I really don't get it. This sentiment always pops up on here when Venezuela is discussed. In the Chavez era, the ruling party pushed through rule by decree, suffered a military coup, purged the opposition, tried to set up their leader as dictator for life... and the lesson we should take away from the resulting chaos is that big spending on social programs doesn't produce long-lasting benefits?

And the economic policies were tremendously popular and would likely have persisted in a carefully designed democracy that did not specifically prohibit them. I don't see the authoritarian nature of the government as being a root cause. Democracy doesn't automatically make price controls (including currency controls) less disastrous.

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#123

Post by milcron »

Retric wrote: post #97
stale2002 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK then, which countries in the world are or have ever been socialist? The point isn't that the "textbook" definition of socialism is bad. The point is that every single real world attempt at getting to socialism has been bad, so why wouldnt future attempts run into the same problems?

I would call Norway socialist. Not because the government owns everything, but because society distributes a large fraction of all earnings. Note, defacto tax rates are what's important. Greece may have a high nominal tax rate, but nobody actually pays it. The US has a 15% tax rate on capital gains irregardless of what the nominal top tax rate is. Further, the US pretends Social Security is not an income tax. By comp…

Norway is more of a social democracy than a democratic socialism, but I take your meaning.

Agreed, China has not been communist for some time now.

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#124

Post by topspin »

justincormack wrote: post #75
ufo wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A big factor is that oil prices tanked in 2014.

no, it was in a very bad way before that.

This is 100% correct; the "oil prices" narrative is a very effective Media fig leaf deliberately used to obscure the clear consequences of command economics in Venezuela. The start of the nightmare in Venezuela began while Chavez was still alive.

The oil price collapse has just made a terrible situation into a genuine atrocity; an entire generation of young is being stunted physically and mentally by the leftist politics of Venezuela. Actual starvation is being inflicted in the name of economic `justice.'

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3794086

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#125

Post by milcron »

ars wrote: post #115
Analemma_ wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody, but the Resource Curse seems to be one of those iron laws that happens inexorably even if people are aware of it (cf. principal-agent problems pushing prices upward), unless very determined action is taken to avoid it (like Norway), and that kind of action wasn't going to happen under Chavez.

> unless very determined action is taken to avoid it (like Norway) Norway is not immune. It's the current popular thing to say, but Norway will fall victim to it just like everyone else does. Look at some charts on their exports: 60%+ is energy. Look at their industry: Basically non-existent, except energy. Look at where young people are making their living: Energy. If (when?) the oil runs out (or people stop buying…

Still, they're certainly doing better than many other oil-rich nations.

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#126

Post by SEJeff »

matt_wulfeck wrote: post #26

Venezuela is a failed state at this point. I'm more than happy to personally take them as an example of why spending big on social programs doesn't produce long-lasting social benefits. I understand many people will find a point of disagreement here. This is especially true when corruption is rife. In countries with high corruption, it seems the very best thing to do is to limit as much as possible how much money flo…

I suspect anyone from the Netherlands or Norway/Iceland might disagree with you there. The issue with Venezuela is almost certainly not socialism, but chronyism and good ol' fashioned corruption.

Chavez's "Bolivar Revolution" was a farce to get rid of his opponents and seize power as a strongman. In that, he succeeded. When the price of oil was high, it worked. Now, well... His legacy is a once great nation left in ruin, and many desperate people. It is sad stuff.

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#127

Post by mikeash »

SilasX wrote: post #122
mikeash wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really don't get it. This sentiment always pops up on here when Venezuela is discussed. In the Chavez era, the ruling party pushed through rule by decree, suffered a military coup, purged the opposition, tried to set up their leader as dictator for life... and the lesson we should take away from the resulting chaos is that big spending on social programs doesn't produce long-lasting benefits?

And the economic policies were tremendously popular and would likely have persisted in a carefully designed democracy that did not specifically prohibit them. I don't see the authoritarian nature of the government as being a root cause. Democracy doesn't automatically make price controls (including currency controls) less disastrous.

That just seems to lend weight to the idea that there was a lot more going on and blaming it all on social programs doesn't make sense. Unless you're lumping price and currency controls into the "social programs" category?

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#128

Post by alphydan »

abysmallyideal wrote: post #106
alphydan wrote: post #98

How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich USA? It’s Buying oil from all over the world! in 2015, the USA imported 9,400,000 barrels every day from 82 countries (Mostly from Canada, Saudi Arabia and ... surprise, surprise from Venezuela). Now the NYT thinks that Venezuela importing 50,000 barrels of light crude (to dilute their heavy crude) is news? They forgot to mention that last year the US imported 830,000 barrels from Venezuela (t…

The US is hot on the plan to burn all of the world's fossil fuels and natural gasses before anyone else does. Some old strategy from ww2. Edit: my android autocorrect is altering my posts

I'm afraid there is no such plan. US production has been declining since the 70s in spite of all attempts to keep it going. Only with the >$100/barrel prices from the last few years did fracking become viable and production recover (Tight oil's growth in the US is not expected to last very long though).

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#129

Post by currysoup_t »

stale2002 wrote: post #61
currysoup_t wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you'll find textbook socialism are very different to what you think socialism and communism are. Do the workers in Venezuela own the means of production?

OK then, which countries in the world are or have ever been socialist? The point isn't that the "textbook" definition of socialism is bad. The point is that every single real world attempt at getting to socialism has been bad, so why wouldnt future attempts run into the same problems?

It's a bit of a straw man to present failed socialist-in-name-only states when critiquing socialism. If someone were to bring up the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea as an attempt to critique democracy you'd rightly scoff.

I'll freely admit there have been numerous failed socialist states. Very few self-proclaimed socialist states have even attempted to implement socialism. Many who claimed to be socialist were destroyed by capitalist states[1]. Some attempts for free states have been crushed by other self-identified socialists[2] but it's of course impossible to know if these groups would be socialist in the long term. Socialism is inherently horizontalist, which means it doesn't fit into the model of centrally controlled countries, making it very hard to achieve for any extended period of time.

The only current socialist experiment I'm aware of is Syrian Kurdistan, Rojava, which is trying to promote a co-op based economy based, while reducing the damage private ownership can do.

Imagine you tried to have a capitalist revolution in feudal Europe. Can you imagine that would go very well? Probably not. It's easy to see why capitalism is an improvement over feudalism, but it's hard to comprehend how long it took to get there. Similarly socialism, if it is ever achieved, is probably going to fought against by the established order tooth and nail. This is certainly no excuse for the failures and crimes of vanguard communist parties[3]. All this humble fellow would ask is people take the time to educate themselves on what socialists actually want before presenting critique.

[1] This category is almost beyond enumeration, Reagan Doctrine, Guatemala, domino theory, Vietnam, etc. etc. etc.

[2] My history isn't great but I believe these count: Revolutionary Catalonia, the Black Army, Kronstadt rebellion, there are probably more, especially in relation to the Russian Civil War of 1917-1922

[3] As an aside, I don't believe vanguard parties are the way to go

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#130

Post by minimuffins »

matt_wulfeck wrote: post #26

Venezuela is a failed state at this point. I'm more than happy to personally take them as an example of why spending big on social programs doesn't produce long-lasting social benefits. I understand many people will find a point of disagreement here. This is especially true when corruption is rife. In countries with high corruption, it seems the very best thing to do is to limit as much as possible how much money flo…

It's really hard for me to imagine an austerity program making life better for Venezuelans.

There's also plenty of history of corrupt right-wing governments with market economies in South American that were just as miserable, so I'm hesitant to say social programs did this. There are plenty of social democratic governments around the world that aren't corrupt failed states.

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