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How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

nytimes.com

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Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#111

Post by metaphorm »

matt_wulfeck wrote: post #94
metaphorm wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you sure you don't get it? This stuff pops up because some of the community here are ideologues trying to score "points" off of this, regardless of whether or not it is appropriate of the situation being discussed. Any excuse to push for more tax cuts.

Yes points. And perhaps there's a larger discussion about what the role of the federal government should be is now discussed in our daily lives, not just hacker news, with such topics as student aid debt forgiveness, basic income, mandatory health care, etc. And also maybe it's an example how power can be purchased with social programs. Also points. Gotta get those points. I hear someday I'll be able to cash them in…

valid things to discuss. while doing so you might want to start form the point of having an actually relevant example to draw from? why would you attempt to use Venezuela for that discussion? Are you honestly trying to assert that Venezuela's social safety net programs are _really_ what went wrong there?

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#112

Post by rm_-rf_slash »

rdiddly wrote: post #103
cobbzilla wrote: post #72

Curious American asking any Venezuelans out there: how does this situation get any better? What do you look to for hope? I'm not familiar with the Venezuelan media perspective (any non-state-affiliated stations left?), but from here, it seems like there is no serious effort to change course; on the contrary Maduro seems to be driving ahead with the notion that, somehow, more of the poison will cure the patient. When…

Yes, living in the USA does make one sympathetic to other nations living under state-controlled media, with an incompetent government obdurately dragging everyone down a self-destructive and delusional path.

Yes, here in the US we get corporate-controlled media with their own delusional and destructive agendas.

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#113

Post by binarray2000 »

civilian wrote: post #35
binarray2000 wrote: post #29

Why can't they just ask other more friendly countries (Russia, Norway, maybe China) for the expertise in exchange for oil? Should be an easy solution, or am I missing something in my oversimplification? (And, please, don't blame it on communism/socialism; people have interests and I believe so do people in Venezuela - including those working in the government.)

I'm gonna blame it on communism. It's not that they don't know how to produce oil. It's that the oil company has been so heavily mismanaged and used for political purposes that it has become extremely inefficient. http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21607824-venezuelas-l... > IN 2003 Venezuela’s then president, Hugo Chávez, fired more than 18,000 employees, almost half the workforce, of the state-run oil corporati…

What you (plus the quote from The Economist) describe is like shooting yourself in the foot. Still, ideology aside, why would Chavez do such a thing? Was he an intellectual moron? No. He knew that without oil exports his people would be hungry, and hungry people mean bloody revolution.

Also, quoting from The Economist is one sided considering their position regarding Venezuela during and after Chavez.

You see, media is biased and I don't want to trust them, no matter how "respectable" they are. (eg. NYT in the eve of 2003 Iraq invasion)

I'd like to hear from people who live there (or from less biased reporters) about causes for this situation in which an oil rich country must import oil from its major adversary, in which the whole society dissolves.

EDIT: User nnq asks the same questions as I do.

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#114

Post by metaphorm »

civilian wrote: post #110
metaphorm wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

your answer is on target but you're wrong to "blame it on communism." that has nothing to do with communism or any other abstract theory of political economy. that is an explicit example of incompetent authoritarian rule by an unhinged despot with no checks on his power.

Communism is tied to state-run monopolies of companies. Yes, the main fault was an incompetent authoritarian rule, but it wouldn't have been possible if the oil company hadn't be nationalized. If Venezuela has an incompetent authoritarian rule, but had a free market for oil companies and didn't harass the employees of oil companies? Then they'd still be drilling with a state-of-the-art technology & workforce today.

ok sure, but I still don't see what that has to do with Communism. suppose their incompetent authoritarian system had been nominally capitalist? or a theocracy? or a monarchy? what difference does it make.

my point is its the incompetence and authoritarianism that caused the problems.

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#115

Post by ars »

Analemma_ wrote: post #5
k_sh wrote: post #2

> Oil accounts for half of the Venezuelan government’s revenues ...Who thought that was a good idea?

Nobody, but the Resource Curse seems to be one of those iron laws that happens inexorably even if people are aware of it (cf. principal-agent problems pushing prices upward), unless very determined action is taken to avoid it (like Norway), and that kind of action wasn't going to happen under Chavez.

> unless very determined action is taken to avoid it (like Norway)

Norway is not immune. It's the current popular thing to say, but Norway will fall victim to it just like everyone else does.

Look at some charts on their exports: 60%+ is energy. Look at their industry: Basically non-existent, except energy. Look at where young people are making their living: Energy.

If (when?) the oil runs out (or people stop buying it) their economy will implode - the fund they setup will not last long enough (they have enough for about 10-20 years). No one is developing skills in any other fields, it will take a generation or more to transition, and in the meantime everyone depends on charity (i.e. the fund) - and that's toxic to any economy because people become used to it.

So what you wrote about "Iron Law" is correct without the qualifier you added for Norway.

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#116

Post by tptacek »

drzaiusapelord wrote: post #66
tptacek wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone sees their own ideological nemeses in the HN user base, which is both a sign that things are working well, and a reason for us all to avoid ideologically-charged political discussions as much as we can. I promise, the "anti-US left" sees HN as stuffed to the gills full of US apologists as well.

My comment is tagged with 'flagged' and set to the lowest score. Obviously these forums lean young and college students which subscribe generally to College identity politics which is very far left. Meanwhile, extremely low effort posts of "Shut up, Socialism works, there's nothing to see here," are voted up uncritically. Tell me again how these forums aren't biased?

I'm no socialist, and I'm one of the people who flagged it. Partisan ideological posts are toxic to HN, no matter who's ideology they represent.

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#117

Post by kilroy123 »

What I don't understand is, how the hell are the leaders still in power? Why aren't people taking drastic action against this failed government?

If people are literally not eating food, that's typically when there's a revolution. If I couldn't eat everyday and feed my family, I'd be out in the streets. Why not? You have nothing to lose at that point.

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#118

Post by alphydan »

SilasX wrote: post #62
rayiner wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's probably reading too much into it. The #1 problem is the resource curse, which happens also in capitalist economies that are singularly dependent on resource extraction. Imagine West Virginia without federal subsidy amounting to 25% of its GSP. The second problem is nationalizing companies. The government sucks at operations--that's been proven time and time again. But Venezuela's example really tells us nothi…

Wait, what? There are numerous countries with the resource curse; the typical result is, "wow, they're not growing as fast as they could"; it's not "so devastated that people have to hunt for rats in the street". Even Saudi Arabia -- which does redistribute oil wealth like Venezuela and is far from the enlightened Norweigian policy -- is smart enough not to draw down the seed corn. And are you seriously claiming the…

> The second problem is nationalizing companies. The government sucks at operations--that's been proven time and time again.

You mean like Saudi Aramco? That little company with $380bn of revenue (about 4 times larger than google but with the same number of employees?). /s

edit: meant to reply to parent

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#119

Post by [deleted] »

alphydan wrote: post #118
SilasX wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wait, what? There are numerous countries with the resource curse; the typical result is, "wow, they're not growing as fast as they could"; it's not "so devastated that people have to hunt for rats in the street". Even Saudi Arabia -- which does redistribute oil wealth like Venezuela and is far from the enlightened Norweigian policy -- is smart enough not to draw down the seed corn. And are you seriously claiming the…

> The second problem is nationalizing companies. The government sucks at operations--that's been proven time and time again. You mean like Saudi Aramco? That little company with $380bn of revenue (about 4 times larger than google but with the same number of employees?). /s edit: meant to reply to parent

[deleted]

Re: How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil

#120

Post by erikpukinskis »

stale2002 wrote: post #61
currysoup_t wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you'll find textbook socialism are very different to what you think socialism and communism are. Do the workers in Venezuela own the means of production?

OK then, which countries in the world are or have ever been socialist? The point isn't that the "textbook" definition of socialism is bad. The point is that every single real world attempt at getting to socialism has been bad, so why wouldnt future attempts run into the same problems?

Invention looks like this: failure, failure, failure, failure, success, failure, success, success, failure, success, success, success, success, success

"It has only failed before so it probably won't succeed" is just a straight up logical fallacy.

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