I have known many clearly intelligent people who held irrational opinions quite strongly. For example, huge believers in specific, concrete stock market predictions based on some fibonacci sequence nonsense, to the point of actively loosing six figures through multiple failed predictions over a decade+ and still believing. So clearly, they're distinct. But the question about the bank teller doesn't seem like the stro…
>For example, huge believers in specific, concrete stock market predictions based on some fibonacci sequence nonsense, to the point of actively loosing six figures through multiple failed predictions over a decade+ and still believing. And there's the problem. We don't know what rationality or intelligence really are, but there's an assumption that they have something to do with modelling our current and future envir…
It makes it sound a lot like the Hollow-Face Illusion (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollow-Face_illusion), which we are subject to precisely because our expectations accurately reflect normal life.
We need more experiments on rationality in which the "irrational" behavior is guaranteed not to be Bayes-optimal when given a previous human life.