Elon Musk on How to Build the Future • Hacker News Board

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#231

Post by tscizzle » Thu, Sep 15, 2016, 9:15 PM UTC

fchollet wrote: post #212

iMuzz wrote: post #2

Question/Answer I found interesting: Sama> How should someone figure out how they should be useful? Elon> Whatever this thing is you are trying to create.. What would be the utility delta compared to the current state of the art times how many people it would affect?

The equation should have per-subject weights to modulate the "how many people" part. For instance, if my app helps Mr. Musk be 10% more productive, that's more impactful than helping Mr. Smith be 10% more productive.

I assume the equation he's talking about already propagates the value to the "leaves", where if the app is boosting a person's productivity, and that person's productivity increases value for a group of people, then it's that final group of people's increased value that is counted toward the original total. And there could be more than 2 layers before you quantify the value without recursing any deeper, of course.

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#232

Post by iamcreasy » Thu, Sep 15, 2016, 9:17 PM UTC

Already__Taken wrote: post #220

iamcreasy wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have one. He has always said the chances of SpaceX succeeding was very slim - but at what point(after any particular technical achievement) he realized the this might work out.

I'm fairly sure i've heard this answer and it would be after that falcon 1 launch that would have bankrupted the company if it blew up.

Wasn't Falcon 1 a test bed for Falcon 9? I remember one when Tom Mueller called Elon Musk to say the a full length Merlin burn was completed without melting the engine. That was a big milestone.

I am pretty sure there have multiple of this yahoo moments successively - that made him believe that SpaceX will be able to succeed.

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#233

Post by varjag » Thu, Sep 15, 2016, 9:18 PM UTC

astazangasta wrote: post #221

varjag wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dunno. There are more Teslas than Fords around here. Perhaps the revolution is not evenly distributed.

The income is not evenly distributed.

That can't be the reason on the national level. People used to buy plenty of Fords.

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#234

Post by _RPM » Thu, Sep 15, 2016, 9:18 PM UTC

djcooley wrote: post #228

I have all the respect in the world for what Mr. Musk has accomplished, but it has come at an amazing cost to the people around him. He is worshiped from afar but reviled by many the closer you get to his inner circle. Go read "Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future." The question I always ask myself with the people who move mountains is what cost did that progress come at? What would someone'…

People that worship another person generally aren't well informed. For example, people look at Elon Musk like he's a pop culture icon -- I see people talking about him on my news feed all the time, yet these people aren't even technical. It's just a way for someone to identify to some type of group. Oh look what Elon's doing, he's so great. My reaction is, why are you sharing press articles about this person? Does it make you feel better about yourself?

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#235

Post by lutorm » Thu, Sep 15, 2016, 9:20 PM UTC

thomaskcr wrote: post #218

chc wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you sure you're thinking of HN? The top comment on any article about Tesla here is usually someone saying "Whatever this article is about is old news and also a bad idea and also doesn't work, and BTW Tesla is losing money hand-over-fist."

Any company can build an electric car and lose money while doing it. The question isn't whether he can build a cool electric car, he clearly can. I really question the position he has put himself in financially. - He used Tesla stock to secure loans he used to purchase his stake in Solar City, the decision to purchase Solar City is at least in part driven by the fact that Elon Musk IS Tesla, without him at the helm i…

Here are a few of those engineers:

http://aviationweek.com/blog/dragons-radiation-tolerant-desi...

http://events.technologyreview.com/video/watch/innovators-un...

https://youtu.be/VOagay_opLQ

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#236

Post by andrewclunn » Thu, Sep 15, 2016, 9:20 PM UTC

djcooley wrote: post #228

I have all the respect in the world for what Mr. Musk has accomplished, but it has come at an amazing cost to the people around him. He is worshiped from afar but reviled by many the closer you get to his inner circle. Go read "Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future." The question I always ask myself with the people who move mountains is what cost did that progress come at? What would someone'…

That's for their spouse, kids, friends, etc to say. I'll judge business people by their businesses, musicians by their music, and so on and so forth. If I meet them personally, then I might make personal judgments, but I've no interest in the tabloid side of tech news.

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#237

Post by grecy » Thu, Sep 15, 2016, 9:22 PM UTC

djcooley wrote: post #228

I have all the respect in the world for what Mr. Musk has accomplished, but it has come at an amazing cost to the people around him. He is worshiped from afar but reviled by many the closer you get to his inner circle. Go read "Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future." The question I always ask myself with the people who move mountains is what cost did that progress come at? What would someone'…

While I understand and agree with the point you're making, I think it's also important to acknowledge we're all different, we're all good at different things and we all eventually fulfill some purpose.

Some of us are great at spending time with our wives and taking the kids to soccer practice. We fill our lives with family and friends, and get immense joy from that. We're so busy, likely, we'll never do anything "noteworthy" or wind up in the Guinness Book of Records. (Note: I'm not in any way implying that's a bad thing, I'm simply stating it as likely true)

Others in this world maybe are not so good socially, or maybe do spend "too much" time at work, and do burn out those around them. They do, however, achieve greatness that genuinely moves the entire human race forward.

It just so happens that second kind of person is around one in a few hundred million, so there really aren't so many around.

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#238

Post by emmett » Thu, Sep 15, 2016, 9:23 PM UTC

idlewords wrote: post #81

emmett wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Historically, expensive treatments for the rich have become universal treatments for everyone over time. What makes you believe that life extension will be any different? Or, if you disagree that expensive treatments generally stay expensive, what are your examples? I agree we could have a temporary awkward period in the middle, say 20 years, where it's not cheap yet. But on the scale of history that's a short period…

My counterexample is a facelift.

I'm not super familiar with facelift costs over time, but a quick google gives me this link: http://www.drhodgkinson.com.au/news-resource/different-types...

Quoth the article: "Facelifts have come a long way in the last 20 years, not only in terms of technique, but also in terms of accessibility to both women and men. In the 1970s and even into the 1980s, the facelift was a luxury reserved for the rich and famous."

This leads me to believe facelifts have greatly declined in cost over the past 30 years. The number of such surgeries has greatly increased as well ("Since 2000, overall procedures have risen 115 percent, but the types of procedures patients are choosing are changing." -- http://www.plasticsurgery.org/news/2016/new-statistics-refle... )

Do you have any other examples? Because the one you gave doesn't appear to support the argument that prices will remain high for long periods of time. Especially given that facelifts are a cosmetic surgery and thus there's relatively little drive to give them to everyone.

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#239

Post by TeMPOraL » Thu, Sep 15, 2016, 9:23 PM UTC

astazangasta wrote: post #217

TeMPOraL wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Focus. Some people want to focus on the tech side. If you want to focus on politics side, go ahead and do it. I understand the technology focus though, policy is probably the worst possible use of your time if you want to help, and it carries a great risk of turning you into an evil person.

There is no "tech side" or "politics side", it's all the same fucking side. You can't create the Internet without vast political consequence. You can't indefinitely extend life without the same. Every human action is steeped in political and social consequence.

You can't create tech without political consequence, no. But there are "sides" in a sense that tech can be driving changes in policy. So you can use tech to make political changes without getting directly involved in all the mess the politics is.

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#240

Post by kiddico » Thu, Sep 15, 2016, 9:24 PM UTC

Havoc wrote: post #225

hbt wrote: post #161

What amazes me about Elon is the level of self control, discipline, perseverance, resilience, willpower etc. He's not the only one playing the game so effectively at that level but to me, he exemplifies rational behavior. I wish more entrepreneurs like Page or Bezos were in the public eye as much as Musk. I believe those traits are common to achieve your goals.

Plus he is a pretty mediocre public speaker...yet puts himself out there & makes an impact

That's one of the reasons I love watching his public speaking events (like the tesla model reveals).

Yeah, there's a good bit of production involved, but it usually feels like when a buddy is showing you something really cool that he made.