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Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

ycombinator.com

221–230 of 542 posts

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#221
post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only one has been done, building rockets. It's not safe to say he paved the way for the electric car revolution since there hasn't been one.

I dunno. There are more Teslas than Fords around here. Perhaps the revolution is not evenly distributed.

The income is not evenly distributed.

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#222
post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would characterize most CEOs I've met(and not only) as decorative. And that's why they do get replaced in an instant.

Part of the problem is that a CEO plays a very different role in a three person company, a 300 person company, a 3000 person company, and a 30k person company. I have a very difficult time imagining swapping out the CEO of an early round startup without having a major existential crisis.

To that I agree. I wasn't talking so much about startups. Admittedly a CEO(quite often a founder) there plays a much more instrumental role.

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#223

It always saddens me when I see a slew of Debbie Downer comments from the HN crowd. "Yes, he ushered in the electric car revolution, but the production carbon footprint is still huge!" "Yes, he's building rockets, but he took a bunch of government money!" "Yes, he's paving the way to Mars, but what has he done for world hunger?" And it not just with Musk, but really with anyone who has been successful. I would have t…

There are rational, non-envy-based reasons to object to all the hero-worship. For example, all the things "he" did above were actually done by big teams of people working together, but Elon gets all the credit. He deserves credit, but not all of it. And let's not forget the millions of people who worked to generate wealth that could be transferred via, and taxed by, PayPal, accruing the fortune with which to start al…

> Heck I'm a "visionary" too, just add one billion dollars and tons of free time and see what I come up with!

Thread winner. There is little difference between a billionaire and anyone else except a billion dollars.

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess Kurzweil and Elon spend some time on WhatsApp. But since Elon thinks in terms of first principles. He probably has this reasoning: 1. Are the any laws of physics that stop us from creating AI ? Answer is No. Nature already built it so its possible. 2. Is it possible to improve AI significantly ? Yes, because if we can build AI, AI can build better AI. 3. How soon can it happen? Since the trend is exponential.…

Not to mention recent advancements in deep learning / machine learning with neural nets. It seems like that field has really proliferated over the past 5ish years. (I'm not sure what breakthrough specifically has led to all this, but we have TensorFlow, Torch, etc.)

If you've checked out recent papers in machine translation with deep learning, they're about as good as current products with supposedly just a week of unsupervised training. So it's really going places.

Of course, the demos (http://104.131.78.120) fail all the time because they haven't done the work to feed in the whole internet and handle proper names and stuff.

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#225
post #161

What amazes me about Elon is the level of self control, discipline, perseverance, resilience, willpower etc. He's not the only one playing the game so effectively at that level but to me, he exemplifies rational behavior. I wish more entrepreneurs like Page or Bezos were in the public eye as much as Musk. I believe those traits are common to achieve your goals.

Plus he is a pretty mediocre public speaker...yet puts himself out there & makes an impact

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#226
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Certainly very interesting, in fact I wrote this down when I heard it. And if you look at the projects he's working on (Renewable energy, cars able to powered by renewable energy, and preserving life outside of Earth), they all affect a great portion of humanity, and have a very large affect.

Affect like how? As of today they're useless, except for Tesla who's motivating car automakers to go towards autonomous cars - but they had the tech before.

He is quite correct that societies can go backwards. There are many scenarios in which we would have 'the tech' and then end up abandoning and losing it. One simple example would be if one corporation profited more by wrecking 'the tech' of another and blocking its adoption, than the other could profit by furthering it. When it all comes down to money you get those suboptimal outcomes, and in the end somebody cashed in epically, but things were not made.

I'm pleased Elon gets this, but it's a chilling thought. We don't have to have MORE stuff, internets, communications etc. just because of Moore's Law, just because it's possible. We can also have progressively less because it's in someone's interest for it to be less.

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#227

It always saddens me when I see a slew of Debbie Downer comments from the HN crowd. "Yes, he ushered in the electric car revolution, but the production carbon footprint is still huge!" "Yes, he's building rockets, but he took a bunch of government money!" "Yes, he's paving the way to Mars, but what has he done for world hunger?" And it not just with Musk, but really with anyone who has been successful. I would have t…

There are rational, non-envy-based reasons to object to all the hero-worship. For example, all the things "he" did above were actually done by big teams of people working together, but Elon gets all the credit. He deserves credit, but not all of it. And let's not forget the millions of people who worked to generate wealth that could be transferred via, and taxed by, PayPal, accruing the fortune with which to start al…

He didn't "do" those things, but he did put practically all his money where his mouth was to make them happen, with extremely uncertain payoff.

He could have invested his money, maybe funded some low-cost web startups, but instead he did what he thought was needed, financial risk being secondary. I think that's what makes him stand out.

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#228
I have all the respect in the world for what Mr. Musk has accomplished, but it has come at an amazing cost to the people around him.

He is worshiped from afar but reviled by many the closer you get to his inner circle. Go read "Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future."

The question I always ask myself with the people who move mountains is what cost did that progress come at? What would someone's spouse, kids, friends, etc. say about the person?

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#229

Umm so there's no way to read the full transcript?

I was able to scroll through the full transcript (7 pages) within the scribd frame, below the youtube and soundcloud frames.

It seemed to insist I install an app to go past the third page.

Re: Elon Musk on How to Build the Future

#230

It always saddens me when I see a slew of Debbie Downer comments from the HN crowd. "Yes, he ushered in the electric car revolution, but the production carbon footprint is still huge!" "Yes, he's building rockets, but he took a bunch of government money!" "Yes, he's paving the way to Mars, but what has he done for world hunger?" And it not just with Musk, but really with anyone who has been successful. I would have t…

There are rational, non-envy-based reasons to object to all the hero-worship. For example, all the things "he" did above were actually done by big teams of people working together, but Elon gets all the credit. He deserves credit, but not all of it. And let's not forget the millions of people who worked to generate wealth that could be transferred via, and taxed by, PayPal, accruing the fortune with which to start al…

But that's the nature of network effects. Jaron Lanier's spoken eloquently about that, and Elon Musk exemplifies it. Whether he likes it or not, he is the figurehead and the focal point. Because he's willing to be that, it builds on itself. Because he's in a valuation-driven growth-only economy on which his businesses depend, it's in his interest to serve as this focal point, and because 'visionary' is an appealing story, the feedback loop gets set up and whirls into motion.

I think he is so much of a nerd that it doesn't change him all that much. I like him better for that, but it's true he doesn't deserve the amount of credit he's given, simply because that's unrealistic.

But, if he CEASES to be 'that guy' and 'the visionary sole leader and innovator', it's less of an appealing story, and his businesses would suffer. He is surfing on a wave of attention which sustains the valuations of his companies, and using the valuation to invest in gigantic projects that may do a lot of good. Surf on, say I.

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