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Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

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Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#181

Post by helthanatos »

monk_e_boy wrote: post #150
hackuser wrote: post #136

People supporting bad policies like to say there are no bad consequences. You hear this about Brexit, climate change, bankrupting the government, violence and war, etc. It's the same rhetorical tool used for a lot of propaganda: You can lie in a moment; it takes hours or days for people to gather the evidence to disprove it. (To disarm this propaganda: It's easy to construct nonsense that sounds plausible - even to y…

Most people I talked to were well informed. I think a lot of people were happy to stick it to big business, most of who pay less tax than a local chippy. We felt Brexit was about control, we wanted more of it. When the USA told us off for wanting more freedom it felt a little weird... but, but, you're the land of the free. We just want to be able to control immigration. We want control from Brussels.

I am extremely uninformed about Brexit (because I live in the US and don't have any connection to the UK or EU and don't care to read possibly false information regarding it.) So, in my simplistic and limited view on Brexit, I support it as it looks to be more freeing than being a part of the EU. ((Also, I tend to find that those currently in control of the US want to limit personal freedoms and grow government.))

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#182

Post by sverige »

wuschel wrote: post #178
sverige wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought the vote for stay in or stay out was already had. Are you proposing to do it over and over until you get the result you want, then declare that this is the mandate?

As mentioned above, the vote has been made - but is not legally binding. I completely agree that one should respect the vote of the voters - after all, isn't that one of the basis of our western political systems? On the other hand, what if the electorate did not vote out of protest, was misinformed by the politicians or media, or simply not educated enough to make the proper choice? Apart from the shocking failure o…

> On the other hand, what if the electorate did not vote out of protest, was misinformed by the politicians or media, or simply not educated enough to make the proper choice? Apart from the shocking failure of an established western democracy to make a good economical and political choice, what are the consequences at stake here?

Well, that has always been the risk with democracy. People disagree, one side of a vote wins, the other side loses.

But you can't simply accuse the winning side of being misinformed or uneducated or irrational unless you are willing to accept that they view you in the same light. And making that argument publicly, as the Remain side has very vocally since losing, only hardens the position of those on the other side that you know nothing and are not worth listening to since you obviously don't see the good that will come from their victory.

So all the rest (economic devastation, EU disintegration, counterproductive attitudes) might be exactly what they desire. And they're in the majority, in a democracy. If you dislike that, perhaps democracy isn't really your preferred form of government.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#183

Post by yummyfajitas »

davidf18 wrote: post #179
yummyfajitas wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you certain that this applies to Americans that don't have a college education? No, I am not certain that Americans with American parents in the bottom 20% didn't get an education. Some of them probably did (about half the population has at least some college) and had their place at the bottom of the ladder filled by an immigrant. Don't look at averages, look at distributions. It helps if you actually follow the…

One of the documents is 38 pages and the other is 20 pages. Were there are emotions such as immigration and especially illegal immigration, it is important to provide the data and answer the exact question which I could not see the proper distribution. “The facts support the application of Ricardo’s theory to immigration. Skilled immigrants lower the wages of skilled natives, and unskilled immigrants lower the wages…

You may be right that the particular slice of people you single out has also had a decrease in wage growth. Do you have any evidence of this? Or are you simply assuming that all unknown facts support your position?

In any case, the specific stats Harford cites are cross sectional. This means the averages include immigrants and fall victim to the exact same Simpson's Paradox issue that I discuss above. To show that immigrants have reduced anyone's wages, you need longitudinal data.

And your question is also malformed, because you don't specify whether you are discussing the children (who may be educated) of uneducated American parents, or the uneducated children of American parents (who may or may not have been uneducated).

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#184

Post by wuschel »

sverige wrote: post #182
wuschel wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As mentioned above, the vote has been made - but is not legally binding. I completely agree that one should respect the vote of the voters - after all, isn't that one of the basis of our western political systems? On the other hand, what if the electorate did not vote out of protest, was misinformed by the politicians or media, or simply not educated enough to make the proper choice? Apart from the shocking failure o…

> On the other hand, what if the electorate did not vote out of protest, was misinformed by the politicians or media, or simply not educated enough to make the proper choice? Apart from the shocking failure of an established western democracy to make a good economical and political choice, what are the consequences at stake here? Well, that has always been the risk with democracy. People disagree, one side of a vote…

Generally, I do agree with you. Voting power, even if it is just one vote, comes with responsibility. And one should respect a vote, and also demand from a voter to behave in a mature, educated and responsible way.

> So all the rest (economic devastation, EU disintegration, counterproductive attitudes) might be exactly [...]

I doubt that one can draw a straight line from the outcome of the referendum to a fatalistic, self destructive attitude of the population of the UK. There are many factors at play here - protest votes against the political establishment, general abstinence, phobia against EU bureaucracy, nationalistic tendencies et cetera. I am not in the picture here, since I have never lived long enough in the UK to understand the tendencies at hand.

> perhaps democracy isn't really your preferred form of government.

I will not comment on that apart from the remark that every form of human government has its suboptimal characteristics. Democracy is not such a bad solution - apart from the fact when it fails.

All in all, again, the EU will survive the BREXIT, albeit it will take damage. The UK might not.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#185

Post by davidf18 »

yummyfajitas wrote: post #183
davidf18 wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the documents is 38 pages and the other is 20 pages. Were there are emotions such as immigration and especially illegal immigration, it is important to provide the data and answer the exact question which I could not see the proper distribution. “The facts support the application of Ricardo’s theory to immigration. Skilled immigrants lower the wages of skilled natives, and unskilled immigrants lower the wages…

You may be right that the particular slice of people you single out has also had a decrease in wage growth. Do you have any evidence of this? Or are you simply assuming that all unknown facts support your position? In any case, the specific stats Harford cites are cross sectional . This means the averages include immigrants and fall victim to the exact same Simpson's Paradox issue that I discuss above. To show that i…

My intent to is to ask about the children of people born in America. The parents lacked a high school or college education and the children lacked a high school or college education. Average wages don't work unless it also takes into account people in this category who are want jobs but are unable to get them.

In order to successfully complete college, one needs an IQ of 110 which is of course above average of 100. Others are being left out not because they don't work hard, but because of biology/opportunity.

If one reads Harford's book, which I found out from the Freakonomics people, they'll get a better idea that the intent is that low educated immigrants compete with low educated American citizens for jobs and drive down wages and that highly educated immigrants (think H1-B visas) compete with highly educated American citizens.

The problem is not immigration, but the percentage of the population should have remained at 5% of the population and not at nearly 14% (which does not include 11 million immigrants here illegally).

By comparison, in 1990 about 1 million of 60 million Brits (1.5%) and now it is 3.3 million or about 5%. The legal immigrant levels in the US today are 3 times that of the level the Brits voted for BrExit.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#186

Post by sverige »

wuschel wrote: post #184
sverige wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> On the other hand, what if the electorate did not vote out of protest, was misinformed by the politicians or media, or simply not educated enough to make the proper choice? Apart from the shocking failure of an established western democracy to make a good economical and political choice, what are the consequences at stake here? Well, that has always been the risk with democracy. People disagree, one side of a vote…

Generally, I do agree with you. Voting power, even if it is just one vote, comes with responsibility. And one should respect a vote, and also demand from a voter to behave in a mature, educated and responsible way. > So all the rest (economic devastation, EU disintegration, counterproductive attitudes) might be exactly [...] I doubt that one can draw a straight line from the outcome of the referendum to a fatalistic,…

> demand from a voter to behave in a mature, educated and responsible way.

What does that mean? Votes voted either "Leave" or "Remain." That's it. It's a binary choice.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#187

Post by tajen »

aaronbrethorst wrote: post #180
tajen wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'd argue that enough were to give Leave the win. In your document I read "48% people think that immigration is one of the most important issues facing Britain, just ahead of the EU referendum". The Remain camp proposed to increase immigration. 48% voters for the Leave camp as a start, that's pretty pretty high! Plus whatever % they convince about leaving Europe for other reasons. Total 52%, I'm surprised the resul…

What's to say that Leave is going to be able to keep to their promises on immigration either?

Credibility is another question entirely - Look, that's how democracy works. People vote, some are gullible in both parties, some have received fewer education, some newspapers will be biased until we mandate them to only publish information of the leading party, and, yes, politicians lie. It may not be the best system we have. But that's the best system at the exception of every other we know today. No-one gets to discard the results of a vote based on how they think things should go.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#188

Post by Tycho »

aaronbrethorst wrote: post #151
tajen wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> ...without paying the dues, which is what the Brexit camp promised This assumes the voters are gullible. But what if they are grown-ups who didn't literally believe Johnson, and made a decision based on rational arguments, would you accept it? Examples: - What if, for example, voters wanted fewer immigration at all costs, and what if their elites refused to give them a referendum on this topic? Then they may decent…

They were gullible. They were told that NHS would be better funded after brexit than before, among other lies.

Do you have any actual examples of people complaining that they were misled and would have voted differently if this particular issue (NHS) had been clarified for them?

Personally I have not seen any examples. I've just seen sore losers on the Remain side latching onto this one vague campaign poster and declaring that the people (other people, obviously) were fooled and the result is therefore, in some way, illegitimate.

It's quite possible that the entire referendum campaign period was basically irrelevant. People have been discussing and forming opinions about EU membership for years. It's not like evaluating a new electoral candidate.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#189

Post by aaronbrethorst »

Tycho wrote: post #188
aaronbrethorst wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They were gullible. They were told that NHS would be better funded after brexit than before, among other lies.

Do you have any actual examples of people complaining that they were misled and would have voted differently if this particular issue (NHS) had been clarified for them? Personally I have not seen any examples. I've just seen sore losers on the Remain side latching onto this one vague campaign poster and declaring that the people (other people, obviously) were fooled and the result is therefore, in some way, illegitim…

Yes. A Google search for

    brexit misled
Quickly turns up articles like this: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/27...

    The unemployed father of two who is married to an
    Irish wife watched the crash of the country's
    currency, the pound, with increasing worries on
    Friday. But one development in particular made
    him change his mind [about his 'leave' vote]:
    “My son has mental health issues and I feared
    a privatization of our health care system,
    which is currently for free,” Kerin said.
    ...On Friday morning, UKIP leader Nigel Farage
    went on national television to say it had been
    a “mistake” that some campaigners promised the
    money currently being transferred to Brussels
    would be spent on health care. "Nigel Farage
    betrayed us," said Kerin.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#190

Post by abeevor »

Amezarak wrote: post #116
open-source-ux wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I voted remain, but completely agree. The Brexit politicians and the nasty Brexit-supporting right wing press in the UK will completely spin the situation as proof of how vindictive and mean everyone is for not giving into the UK's demands. It's embarrassing. By the way, Sunderland (in the North East of England), home to Nissan who employ over 6000 people, voted 61% in favour of Brexit. A key reason Nissan expanded o…

> A key reason Nissan expanded operations in the UK was for access to the European market. One has to wonder what people in Sunderland were thinking when they voted. I can't read their minds any more than you can, but maybe they prioritize sovereignty or their idea of the UK over money. It sometimes disturbs me how everything has to be reduced to an economic decision. You need money to live, sure, but there's more to…

When Nissan's workforce are all at the jobcentre, I'm sure they'll agree with you there - I prioritize paying the mortgage
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