Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit • Hacker News Board

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#21

Post by eps » Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 1:56 PM UTC

jerven wrote: post #14

TillE wrote: post #8

It's really incredible that three months after the vote, we still haven't the slightest idea what post-Brexit UK will look like. Will they go for the EEA (the least destructive option), or will they - as Theresa May threatens - sacrifice everything just to limit immigration? Three months after the biggest decision in decades, and the subject is barely even being talked about seriously in the UK. I don't understand it…

Problem is the EEA option depends on 31 veto possibilities !!! what will the UK have to give up to avoid those vetos? Not every country in the EU does a lot of trade with the UK and those will want their pound of flesh, now that the UK has foolishly put it on the table.

Vetoes are pretty much guaranteed, and not because of little trade with the UK, but as a warning to other EU members considering the UK route. You can't have the cake and eat it.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#22

Post by madeofpalk » Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 1:56 PM UTC

no1youknowz wrote: post #18

TillE wrote: post #8

It's really incredible that three months after the vote, we still haven't the slightest idea what post-Brexit UK will look like. Will they go for the EEA (the least destructive option), or will they - as Theresa May threatens - sacrifice everything just to limit immigration? Three months after the biggest decision in decades, and the subject is barely even being talked about seriously in the UK. I don't understand it…

There has been a flurry of activity behind the scenes. Philip Hammond was recently in China [1] and discussed the possibility of trade agreements with them and other representatives of other countries who were also there. Australia has already mentioned opening up trade agreements [2] with the UK as well. There is even talk of trading with the common-wealth [3]. The point is this, things are moving forward. Just beca…

Was the UK not trading with the entire world when it was in the EU?

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#23

Post by open-source-ux » Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 1:57 PM UTC

vermooten wrote: post #4

The knuckle-draggers who voted to leave the EU won't care about threats like this - they'll just use hate speech to dismiss it. Downvote me by all means :)

I voted remain, but completely agree. The Brexit politicians and the nasty Brexit-supporting right wing press in the UK will completely spin the situation as proof of how vindictive and mean everyone is for not giving into the UK's demands. It's embarrassing.

By the way, Sunderland (in the North East of England), home to Nissan who employ over 6000 people, voted 61% in favour of Brexit. A key reason Nissan expanded operations in the UK was for access to the European market. One has to wonder what people in Sunderland were thinking when they voted.

"UK officials reacted with astonishment that Japan had chosen to publish this list of concerns and demands."

The fact that UK officials reacted with astonishment shows how so many Brexiters live in a fantasy land where they think Brexit is simply a matter of picking-and-choosing all the rules and regulations that suit them.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#24

Post by barrkel » Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 1:58 PM UTC

polotics wrote: post #15

jerven wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that the EU will. The UK economy is a significant part of the EU economy but the interests of continental governments are now aligned against the UK. They are basically all thinking what can we get out of the UK, their horsetrading has started and the UK has a lot less horses to trade. There are just to many people the UK has to please at once to make the exit smooth for the UK. But for the next 2.5 years you…

could you clarify what you mean about the swiss?

The Swiss have a more direct democracy than most, and recently voted to limit free travel - trouble is, free travel is a condition of free market access, and with this vote, they're going to lose that.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/03/eu-swiss-singl...

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#25

Post by TheOtherHobbes » Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 1:58 PM UTC

martinko wrote: post #13

TillE wrote: post #8

It's really incredible that three months after the vote, we still haven't the slightest idea what post-Brexit UK will look like. Will they go for the EEA (the least destructive option), or will they - as Theresa May threatens - sacrifice everything just to limit immigration? Three months after the biggest decision in decades, and the subject is barely even being talked about seriously in the UK. I don't understand it…

I think everyone in any position of power understands that they must remain in the single market - now the only question is how to position / sell this to the electorate.

I don't think May and the Cabinet do. All the noises seem to suggest the real priority is xenophobia - i.e. immigration.

...Which is a purely political strategy to capture the continued support of leave voters - exactly the people whose lives will be destroyed when trade dries up.

The problem is that the typical leave voter understands immigration because they have direct personal experience of immigrants.

But leave voters don't understand the intricacies of trade deals, or the incredible damage poor trading conditions can do to an economy.

May does, which is why she has been warning of "tough times ahead."

If she was interested in continuing trade on realistic terms she wouldn't be saying that.

My suspicion at this point is that the Tory party is willing to sacrifice the economic future of the UK in order to remain in power.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#26

Post by vesinisa » Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 1:58 PM UTC

chvid wrote: post #2

No way that the EU is going to remove the UK from its single market; the rest of EU is far too dependent on demand from the UK economy.

That's more like UK's own decision. Both EU and UK benefit from UK in the single market, and I am sure if UK so desires they can leave the EU but stay part of the single market (Norwegian model). That just makes the whole point of the referendum completely moot, since almost all the rules that were so berated by the Leave Campaign will continue to apply - greatest difference being that UK loses its say to affect the future direction of the single market regulation.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#27

Post by michaelbuddy » Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 1:59 PM UTC

martinko wrote: post #19

michaelbuddy wrote: post #9

this "warning" was totally unnecessary and those kinds of acts go without saying anyway. Whoever wrote it up doesn't realize that this attempt at posturing makes them looks weak rather than strong.

I wouldn't say that this was a move to make them look strong. Its a plain reminder to British decision makers as well as people that there will be economic consequences if they decide to leave the single market. This is not a threat - pure and simple, companies that operate from the UK now will have a harder time post-exit.

Didn't say it was a threat. The headline said it was a warning.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#28

Post by lispm » Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 2:00 PM UTC

no1youknowz wrote: post #18

TillE wrote: post #8

It's really incredible that three months after the vote, we still haven't the slightest idea what post-Brexit UK will look like. Will they go for the EEA (the least destructive option), or will they - as Theresa May threatens - sacrifice everything just to limit immigration? Three months after the biggest decision in decades, and the subject is barely even being talked about seriously in the UK. I don't understand it…

There has been a flurry of activity behind the scenes. Philip Hammond was recently in China [1] and discussed the possibility of trade agreements with them and other representatives of other countries who were also there. Australia has already mentioned opening up trade agreements [2] with the UK as well. There is even talk of trading with the common-wealth [3]. The point is this, things are moving forward. Just beca…

> Now, it has the possibility of accessing the EU market AND trading with the world.

Wonderful. Something which clearly is not possible while in the EU. I never understood why the EU did not allow that. The UK never had a chance to successfully trade within the EU and trade with other countries was strictly forbidden.

Brexit will change all that. Congratulations!

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#29

Post by Numberwang » Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 2:00 PM UTC

martinko wrote: post #7

Indeed the most likely scenario appears to be the 'Norwegian model', where the UK in essence remains in the single market and thus will have to follow European regulations but will have a much smaller say when it comes to the future direction of the EU. They will, however, have officially left the EU so the leave camp can pat their shoulders over their Pyrrhic victory.

UK Will never be allowed to have 'The Norwegian Model' set up by EU. That would have lot's of other countries asking for the same. UK is in for a long winter on GoT type scale.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#30

Post by microtonal » Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 2:00 PM UTC

martinko wrote: post #13

TillE wrote: post #8

It's really incredible that three months after the vote, we still haven't the slightest idea what post-Brexit UK will look like. Will they go for the EEA (the least destructive option), or will they - as Theresa May threatens - sacrifice everything just to limit immigration? Three months after the biggest decision in decades, and the subject is barely even being talked about seriously in the UK. I don't understand it…

I think everyone in any position of power understands that they must remain in the single market - now the only question is how to position / sell this to the electorate.

The problem is that it is not in the EU's best interest to give the UK the best possible deal, especially with many populist parties ready to request an exit if the UK deal works out well.

The whole process will be immensely complicated: the deal should be bad enough for the UK to instil fear for an exit, but good enough to avoid an economic collapse.