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Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

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111–120 of 209 posts

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#111
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please correct me if I am wrong - as I understand, the referendum for the BREXIT is not binding. As such, there is a lot of fuss and hot air about things that will possibly not materialize. Not to mention all those speculative business affairs..

No, it's happening. As in like the most likely thing to happen next is that it will happen. It's not binding as in they could theoretically put it to an MP vote and reject it, but it would be utter political suicide for any party that did. So it's only not binding only if you're completely and utterly delusional. There would be riots, a major swing to UKIP, lots of 'safe' MPs would lose their seats, etc., etc.

[deleted]

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#112
post #8

It's really incredible that three months after the vote, we still haven't the slightest idea what post-Brexit UK will look like. Will they go for the EEA (the least destructive option), or will they - as Theresa May threatens - sacrifice everything just to limit immigration? Three months after the biggest decision in decades, and the subject is barely even being talked about seriously in the UK. I don't understand it…

Maybe the best option is to have a big party and declare Brexit a huge success, without actually doing anything.

[deleted]

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#113
post #8

It's really incredible that three months after the vote, we still haven't the slightest idea what post-Brexit UK will look like. Will they go for the EEA (the least destructive option), or will they - as Theresa May threatens - sacrifice everything just to limit immigration? Three months after the biggest decision in decades, and the subject is barely even being talked about seriously in the UK. I don't understand it…

GBP stopped falling though. Dunno if it's because brexit stalled or because the market thinks brexit will be fine.

Falling GBP mean UK exports become increasingly competitive, it's not a great measure of "this is bad news for Brexit!" in the first place.

In fact, if it remains at the levels it's at, it will cancel out the additional tariffs UK exports into Europe would see as non-members of the EU.

The whole thing is really quite overblown.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#114
post #8

It's really incredible that three months after the vote, we still haven't the slightest idea what post-Brexit UK will look like. Will they go for the EEA (the least destructive option), or will they - as Theresa May threatens - sacrifice everything just to limit immigration? Three months after the biggest decision in decades, and the subject is barely even being talked about seriously in the UK. I don't understand it…

You'd think all those politicians campaigning for it would have worked out these details in advance. Too bad politicians actually doing their jobs doesn't seem to be in fashion these days.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As far as I was aware it was the areas that the least amount of immigrants that wanted to vote for leave, but at this point it's moot. And I wouldn't say that fears over immigration are xenophobic, I think that the referendum came at a terrible time when Europe as a whole is facing a big refugee (economic or not) problem that they still can't decide how to solve.

>areas that [have] the least amount of immigrants that wanted to vote for leave Ironic, isn't it? But absolutely typical. In Germany as well, the areas with highest anti-immigrant sentiments (and voting etc.) are the ones with the least amount of actual immigrants. Which kind of makes sense when you think about it...

I don't see why it is ironic, really: areas of low immigration can see what happens to areas of high immigration, so will vote against it, whereas for areas with high immigration it is too late

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#116

The knuckle-draggers who voted to leave the EU won't care about threats like this - they'll just use hate speech to dismiss it. Downvote me by all means :)

I voted remain, but completely agree. The Brexit politicians and the nasty Brexit-supporting right wing press in the UK will completely spin the situation as proof of how vindictive and mean everyone is for not giving into the UK's demands. It's embarrassing. By the way, Sunderland (in the North East of England), home to Nissan who employ over 6000 people, voted 61% in favour of Brexit. A key reason Nissan expanded o…

> A key reason Nissan expanded operations in the UK was for access to the European market. One has to wonder what people in Sunderland were thinking when they voted.

I can't read their minds any more than you can, but maybe they prioritize sovereignty or their idea of the UK over money. It sometimes disturbs me how everything has to be reduced to an economic decision. You need money to live, sure, but there's more to life than money.

And besides that, what I'm reading from Krugman and other economists is that the economic consequences being published in the press are dramatically overblown.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#117
post #7

Indeed the most likely scenario appears to be the 'Norwegian model', where the UK in essence remains in the single market and thus will have to follow European regulations but will have a much smaller say when it comes to the future direction of the EU. They will, however, have officially left the EU so the leave camp can pat their shoulders over their Pyrrhic victory.

But "the single market" implies the free movement of goods and people. If the electorate voted Leave because of immigration, doesn't that mean what they wanted was to leave the single market?

I can't see how you can limit migration and allow free movement of people?

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#118
post #8

It's really incredible that three months after the vote, we still haven't the slightest idea what post-Brexit UK will look like. Will they go for the EEA (the least destructive option), or will they - as Theresa May threatens - sacrifice everything just to limit immigration? Three months after the biggest decision in decades, and the subject is barely even being talked about seriously in the UK. I don't understand it…

There is some early data When Economic Doomsayers Stumble: Cautionary Tales From Brexit, Grexit and U.S. Budget Battles http://www.wsj.com/articles/forecasts-of-brexit-gloom-may-be...

I made the prediction on June 27 (the first trading day after Brexit) that all of this is overblown.

Proof: https://twitter.com/stucchio/status/747493530277294082

I'm up 14% (67% annualized) on EWU (UK index) and VGK (Europe Index) since then - it's a nice chunk of money in my pocket.

There are so many doomsayers here. When are you guys going to go short?

It's a lot easier to criticize the outgroup than it is to put your money where your mouth is.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#119
post #86
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It isn't legally binding, and although the Prime Minister said she doesn't intend to consult parliament about it, parliament will still need to repeal the European Communities Act which took us into the EU in the first place. So they could say "no", but I think it unlikely in the current political climate. It is binding in the sense that it's "the will of the people", albeit by a slender margin, and it's kind of tric…

I understand, thanks for elaborating on that matter. In a way, a clean way to do it would to be a call for elections, and a proper mandate - either to stay in, or stay out. But that might not happen, considering the nature of the political game. I agree about the reasons to worry, and to have a proper discussion. Things tend to get out of hand sometimes when it comes to media.

I thought the vote for stay in or stay out was already had. Are you proposing to do it over and over until you get the result you want, then declare that this is the mandate?

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#120
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, but if you are old enough, you might remember that long before 1973 the UK spanned the world: India, Pakistan, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Canada. You even had 13 colonies south of Canada. And if you are that old, you might remember that they didn't like the UK way of trading. I hope the UK will never get back that glory. The EU never prevented UK from trading with the rest of the world. If anything, it…

> The EU never prevented UK from trading with the rest of the world Upon joining the EU, the free trade arrangements that the UK had with Commonwealth countries were dissolved.

Well, the EU either has or is negotiating trade deals with 30+ Commonwealth countries...

http://eulawanalysis.blogspot.de/2015/11/the-eu-or-commonwea...

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