Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit • Hacker News Board

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#41

Post by dogma1138 » Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 2:03 PM UTC

agumonkey wrote: post #31

TillE wrote: post #8

It's really incredible that three months after the vote, we still haven't the slightest idea what post-Brexit UK will look like. Will they go for the EEA (the least destructive option), or will they - as Theresa May threatens - sacrifice everything just to limit immigration? Three months after the biggest decision in decades, and the subject is barely even being talked about seriously in the UK. I don't understand it…

GBP stopped falling though. Dunno if it's because brexit stalled or because the market thinks brexit will be fine.

The GBP stopped falling because the UK government spend about 250bln GBP to stop it from falling further.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#42

Post by Scarblac » Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 2:05 PM UTC

TillE wrote: post #8

It's really incredible that three months after the vote, we still haven't the slightest idea what post-Brexit UK will look like. Will they go for the EEA (the least destructive option), or will they - as Theresa May threatens - sacrifice everything just to limit immigration? Three months after the biggest decision in decades, and the subject is barely even being talked about seriously in the UK. I don't understand it…

Maybe the best option is to have a big party and declare Brexit a huge success, without actually doing anything.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#43

Post by T-A » Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 2:06 PM UTC

martinko wrote: post #13

TillE wrote: post #8

It's really incredible that three months after the vote, we still haven't the slightest idea what post-Brexit UK will look like. Will they go for the EEA (the least destructive option), or will they - as Theresa May threatens - sacrifice everything just to limit immigration? Three months after the biggest decision in decades, and the subject is barely even being talked about seriously in the UK. I don't understand it…

I think everyone in any position of power understands that they must remain in the single market - now the only question is how to position / sell this to the electorate.

Doesn't look that way, unless it's a really reckless negotiating tactic: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-03/may-s-brex...

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#44

Post by barrkel » Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 2:06 PM UTC

open-source-ux wrote: post #23

vermooten wrote: post #4

The knuckle-draggers who voted to leave the EU won't care about threats like this - they'll just use hate speech to dismiss it. Downvote me by all means :)

I voted remain, but completely agree. The Brexit politicians and the nasty Brexit-supporting right wing press in the UK will completely spin the situation as proof of how vindictive and mean everyone is for not giving into the UK's demands. It's embarrassing. By the way, Sunderland (in the North East of England), home to Nissan who employ over 6000 people, voted 61% in favour of Brexit. A key reason Nissan expanded o…

Brexit was a coalition between two completely different groups of people: anti-globalization (whether they know it or not) working class getting marginalized by global shifts in the world economy, the service-orientation of the UK economy, technological change that's reshaping everything everywhere; and pro-globalization free traders who want to be able to undercut EU rules to compete.

The interests of these two groups are not aligned. Remain didn't point this out. The reason they weren't able to point it out was because Brexit was sold as a change to the status quo: thus anyone unhappy with the current situation could project whatever they liked as the alternative.

Cameron will be tough to beat as the worst PM in the 21st century.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#45

Post by flexie » Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 2:07 PM UTC

no1youknowz wrote: post #18

TillE wrote: post #8

It's really incredible that three months after the vote, we still haven't the slightest idea what post-Brexit UK will look like. Will they go for the EEA (the least destructive option), or will they - as Theresa May threatens - sacrifice everything just to limit immigration? Three months after the biggest decision in decades, and the subject is barely even being talked about seriously in the UK. I don't understand it…

There has been a flurry of activity behind the scenes. Philip Hammond was recently in China [1] and discussed the possibility of trade agreements with them and other representatives of other countries who were also there. Australia has already mentioned opening up trade agreements [2] with the UK as well. There is even talk of trading with the common-wealth [3]. The point is this, things are moving forward. Just beca…

Ah, but if you are old enough, you might remember that long before 1973 the UK spanned the world: India, Pakistan, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Canada. You even had 13 colonies south of Canada. And if you are that old, you might remember that they didn't like the UK way of trading.

I hope the UK will never get back that glory.

The EU never prevented UK from trading with the rest of the world. If anything, it enabled the UK to keep some commerce that would otherwise have bypassed the UK for France or Germany, as the Japanese memo also suggests.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#46

Post by rayiner » Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 2:07 PM UTC

joshvm wrote: post #39

michaelbuddy wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just to 'limit immigration'. It was also to no remove the decidedly unneeded layer of unchecked lawmakers who at any time can run wild and criminalize UK citizens, who then have no recourse. Given that the UK economy is doing well, what is there to talk about? Most people are relieved to have that monkey off their back.

Those unchecked lawmakers were also responsible for a level of governmental oversight which is unprecedented anywhere else in the world. That's not a bad thing at all, but you can't sell Remain to an electorate by saying "The EU stops us doing stupid stuff to you". That monkey was responsible for a huge number of regulations which benefit EU citizens, again, because it forces the government to take action that they w…

The U.K. already had plenty of government oversight. Why on earth does it need even more from bureaucrats in other countries?

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#47

Post by dogma1138 » Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 2:08 PM UTC

jerven wrote: post #14

TillE wrote: post #8

It's really incredible that three months after the vote, we still haven't the slightest idea what post-Brexit UK will look like. Will they go for the EEA (the least destructive option), or will they - as Theresa May threatens - sacrifice everything just to limit immigration? Three months after the biggest decision in decades, and the subject is barely even being talked about seriously in the UK. I don't understand it…

Problem is the EEA option depends on 31 veto possibilities !!! what will the UK have to give up to avoid those vetos? Not every country in the EU does a lot of trade with the UK and those will want their pound of flesh, now that the UK has foolishly put it on the table.

I don't think there will be vetos renegotiations are comming up with Switzerland and later Norway, Denmark is also up for grabs so is Poland once the Euroblock exemption will expire.

If the EU is über harsh on the UK, especially if it will come from either the Eurocrats like Juncker or from one of the smaller states it will not fly well with both EU and EEA members up for renegotiations.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#48

Post by lispm » Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 2:08 PM UTC

chvid wrote: post #2

No way that the EU is going to remove the UK from its single market; the rest of EU is far too dependent on demand from the UK economy.

Everybody can trade with the EU. One does not need to be in the single market. China trades with the EU, a lot, without being a member.

It's just that the single market makes it a lot easier to offer services, set up business, have reliability, move around ... in a region of 500 million people.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#49

Post by tim333 » Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 2:08 PM UTC

TillE wrote: post #8

It's really incredible that three months after the vote, we still haven't the slightest idea what post-Brexit UK will look like. Will they go for the EEA (the least destructive option), or will they - as Theresa May threatens - sacrifice everything just to limit immigration? Three months after the biggest decision in decades, and the subject is barely even being talked about seriously in the UK. I don't understand it…

There was a very good article on the practical difficulties of leaving the EU successfully - "Everything you need to know about Theresa May’s Brexit nightmare in five minutes." Basically either you restrict immigration, lose free trade and screw the economy by mucking up decades of prior investments such as that by the Japanese or you go the Norway model where you still have EU immigration and budget payments but less say in what happens so a worse position than we now have.

May promised "We're going to make a success of Brexit" but basically does not have the means to do that. What she can do is delay, do studies and so on hence the lack of progress.

Re: Japan's Unprecedented Warning to UK Over Brexit

#50

Post by Scarblac » Sun, Sep 04, 2016, 2:10 PM UTC

no1youknowz wrote: post #18

TillE wrote: post #8

It's really incredible that three months after the vote, we still haven't the slightest idea what post-Brexit UK will look like. Will they go for the EEA (the least destructive option), or will they - as Theresa May threatens - sacrifice everything just to limit immigration? Three months after the biggest decision in decades, and the subject is barely even being talked about seriously in the UK. I don't understand it…

There has been a flurry of activity behind the scenes. Philip Hammond was recently in China [1] and discussed the possibility of trade agreements with them and other representatives of other countries who were also there. Australia has already mentioned opening up trade agreements [2] with the UK as well. There is even talk of trading with the common-wealth [3]. The point is this, things are moving forward. Just beca…

Given that the UK is smaller than the EU as a whole, they have less negotiating power. The deals will necessarily be worse than what the EU can negotiate.