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American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

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Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

#111

Post by SubiculumCode »

tuna-piano wrote: post #6

The other question you need to ask in order to understand this future scenerio:. Shipping costs will significantly decrease, what will consumers and shareholders spend the extra money on? Who knows what they will spend the extra money on, could be healthcare, boats, TVs, whatever. But new jobs will be created in these expanded industries. It really, really bothers me the constant "x technology will drive x people out…

Imagine the singularity and you can see that new jobs will not always pop up. absurdum

Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

#112

Post by tuna-piano »

pdkl95 wrote: post #56
tuna-piano wrote: post #6

The other question you need to ask in order to understand this future scenerio:. Shipping costs will significantly decrease, what will consumers and shareholders spend the extra money on? Who knows what they will spend the extra money on, could be healthcare, boats, TVs, whatever. But new jobs will be created in these expanded industries. It really, really bothers me the constant "x technology will drive x people out…

Farming and other types of automation that put people out of work in the past used technology to amplify and/or replace physical labor. Now we are learning how to use the general purpose computer to replace mental labor. These are different types of automation that will have fundamentally different effects on society. While we have many examples of new technology replacing physical labor, automation of mental labor i…

I watched the video, and I have to say it had pretty poor arguments. Too many to name, but I think the core is this:

If any conceivable software was free, required no human labor, and instantaneous: Would the world be a better or a worse place? (although I'd need to find something else to do)

If computers replace doctors, and I get better care for cheaper, aren't I better off?

...If every job was automated, and you can press a button to have robots make software or do medical tasks, that is the ultimate UBI for every person on earth. Everything is free, and then everyone can do whatever they want to fill their days.

P.S. - I want my own clothes-folding coffee-making robot.

P.P.S. - One tiny thing the video said, that is a piece of incorrect common wisdom: Auto insurance companies will not be helped by automated cars, they'll be hurt greatly. If accident rates decrease, premiums decrease, and so the insurance companies margins (and float) decrease, making less revenue and profits.

Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

#113

Post by femto »

Is the answer an "Uber for robots"? Rather than an organisation owning all the robots, individuals could own a robot and rent it out though an online marketplace. It would be a continuation of the "owner/driver" model, without the need to actually be a driver.

Maybe the problem is that if it's a lucrative opportunity the group running the marketplace will want to keep all the profits for themselves, by owning the robots and locking out small players?

Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

#114

Post by PedroBatista »

pmarreck wrote: post #44

What then? Progress, perhaps. ::eyeroll:: Disclaimer: In 1997 I was cut off by a semi (in the middle of trying to pass him), who did NOT signal, on a 2 lane road (I-5 in California, speed limit was 85 or so), and ended up entering the ditch and rolling over 8 times and shattered my hand (it's fine now, but it took a while). The driver never stopped. I was lucky to walk away from that one. Sorry, truckers, but your jo…

And they are cut off and break tested by 4 wheelers all the time. Lets crush all cars and make every person ride the bus?

Btw, cargo trains are very cute for big loads between huge industrial hubs. Which means according to your theory that most people and their job in every state can go fuck themselves. Also I suspect you'll be fine with your Amazon Prime taking 1-2 weeks to reach your door.

Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

#115

Post by tuna-piano »

brianwawok wrote: post #80
morgante wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Milton Friedman famously advocated a negative income tax. [0] [0] http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/08/why-aren...

We have a negative income tax through EIC. It's too small to matter though.

Also worth noting, Milton Friedman advocated that in lieu of other poverty programs, because it gets rid of bureaucracy, leaves an incentive to work, and is less parent-like than existing methods.

The EIC is on top of the programs Friedman wanted to replace.

Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

#116

Post by PedroBatista »

merpnderp wrote: post #66
jondubois wrote: post #19

The only people who really benefit from innovation are entrepreneurs, investors and shareholders. The majority of the population are actually worse off because of innovation (at least this is the case right now - The value is just not trickling down). The worst part of this will come when even highly educated people start losing their jobs to machines... We will have a situation where entrepreneurs, investors and com…

Everyone directly benefits from most innovations. Even this one will see the 318 million people directly benefit from drastically lower transportation costs to their goods, where ~2 million will need retraining, or likely transitioning into related jobs. I used to be a truck driver and before and even during, I worked the dock. The only difference between me and the guys on the dock was I could always pass a pee test…

That's why you'll see greenhorns drivers doing stupid mistakes and barely being able of backing off a truck.

The problem is the CDL, and the "schools" not the business.

Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

#117

Post by nxzero »

femto wrote: post #113

Is the answer an "Uber for robots"? Rather than an organisation owning all the robots, individuals could own a robot and rent it out though an online marketplace. It would be a continuation of the "owner/driver" model, without the need to actually be a driver. Maybe the problem is that if it's a lucrative opportunity the group running the marketplace will want to keep all the profits for themselves, by owning the rob…

At scale, the value truckers provide is being a driver, not offer there trucks. Yes, there will be companies that provide logistics as a service, but it's hard to imagine a business based on a single robot.

Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

#118

Post by ausvisaissues »

tuna-piano wrote: post #112
pdkl95 wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Farming and other types of automation that put people out of work in the past used technology to amplify and/or replace physical labor. Now we are learning how to use the general purpose computer to replace mental labor. These are different types of automation that will have fundamentally different effects on society. While we have many examples of new technology replacing physical labor, automation of mental labor i…

I watched the video, and I have to say it had pretty poor arguments. Too many to name, but I think the core is this: If any conceivable software was free, required no human labor, and instantaneous: Would the world be a better or a worse place? (although I'd need to find something else to do) If computers replace doctors, and I get better care for cheaper, aren't I better off? ...If every job was automated, and you c…

> If computers replace doctors, and I get better care for cheaper, aren't I better off?

Doctors have a state-guaranteed monopoly that is created via lobbying. That is why, in many countries, doctors are extremely expensive -- even though most of the miracle of healing is done by medicine.

In the future it will probably be a doctor owning and "supervising" the machine. Patients use the machine (paying $XXX). A doctor will take 30 seconds to one minute to look at the results, sign it and your prescription and then charge you exactly the same as before.

The only way the general public will benefit is from more accurate prescriptions. But I sincerely doubt that the cost of a doctor's visit will be reduced significantly. But don't worry, the laws will the there for your own good.

PS: MYCIN was already developed in the 70ies, and showed higher accuracy than doctors. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mycin

Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

#119

Post by AJ007 »

tuna-piano wrote: post #112
pdkl95 wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Farming and other types of automation that put people out of work in the past used technology to amplify and/or replace physical labor. Now we are learning how to use the general purpose computer to replace mental labor. These are different types of automation that will have fundamentally different effects on society. While we have many examples of new technology replacing physical labor, automation of mental labor i…

I watched the video, and I have to say it had pretty poor arguments. Too many to name, but I think the core is this: If any conceivable software was free, required no human labor, and instantaneous: Would the world be a better or a worse place? (although I'd need to find something else to do) If computers replace doctors, and I get better care for cheaper, aren't I better off? ...If every job was automated, and you c…

I thought the reaction on hn to a population aging story a few days ago was interesting. No one mentioned AI or robots. ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12225518 )

Some aging countries will face a severe loss in standard of living if they fail to automate huge parts of the economy. Presumably the worlds population will not continue to grow infinitely and at some point labor shortages will be a big problem.

One of the most destructive outcomes could come from poor government policy during an economic transition. Socialist or capitalist is one thing, but policies which are in direct opposition to another is another ( e.g. Venezuela, Zimbabwe.)

There are also big AI existential risk issues, but I think that is separate from the labor impact.

Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

#120

Post by sandworm101 »

drcross wrote: post #17
sandworm101 wrote: post #7

It isn't that simple. The robots will never be a drop-in replacement for all the various tasks that a "driver" actually does. Driving, negotiating the vehicle down the road, isn't the entire job. (1) People will still be needed for inspections and maintenance, however that will be done. Much of that is now covered by drivers (the little things) and cannot be automated. (2) Insurance companies may demand that a human,…

Each are edge cases and nothing which can't be fixed by further work. >The concept that every driver can/will be replaced by an autodrive bot is naive. The premise is that the driver aspect will be removed, the things you mentioned are not strictly what a driver does.

> the things you mentioned are not strictly what a driver does.

They are according to the drivers I know. Long haul truckers are not like pilots. They are much more involved with their rigs. They are actually responsible for maintenance. They are the ones talking to the cops when/if they hit an inspection station.

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