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American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

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Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

#61

Post by NurAzhar »

jordwest wrote: post #57
tuna-piano wrote: post #6

The other question you need to ask in order to understand this future scenerio:. Shipping costs will significantly decrease, what will consumers and shareholders spend the extra money on? Who knows what they will spend the extra money on, could be healthcare, boats, TVs, whatever. But new jobs will be created in these expanded industries. It really, really bothers me the constant "x technology will drive x people out…

> If we had established UBI then, and people could get paid to sit around, imagine the state we'd be in today. Perhaps we'd be in a better place today. We can't know for sure, without first experimenting. Wealth inequality is a real and growing problem, and I believe is a much bigger impediment to human progress than a basic income would be. What about the millions of incredibly intelligent minds who could be earning…

those who never been there (low income background) will never get it.

it's not just income,it's the network the ghetto,the mindset,the culture...

it's just so hard to move up...of those stories? probably less then 10%

Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

#62

Post by sverige »

pdkl95 wrote: post #56
tuna-piano wrote: post #6

The other question you need to ask in order to understand this future scenerio:. Shipping costs will significantly decrease, what will consumers and shareholders spend the extra money on? Who knows what they will spend the extra money on, could be healthcare, boats, TVs, whatever. But new jobs will be created in these expanded industries. It really, really bothers me the constant "x technology will drive x people out…

Farming and other types of automation that put people out of work in the past used technology to amplify and/or replace physical labor. Now we are learning how to use the general purpose computer to replace mental labor. These are different types of automation that will have fundamentally different effects on society. While we have many examples of new technology replacing physical labor, automation of mental labor i…

>Assuming this was even possible and assuming there will be jobs for all of these new programmers/etc, is this retraining cheaper than UBI or other plans?

That's assuming that programming won't be one of the first categories of jobs to be automated away by AI. Think of the cost savings! But thankfully we don't have to worry about what all those poor programmers are going to do since it's progress for humanity.

Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

#63

Post by morgante »

tuna-piano wrote: post #6

The other question you need to ask in order to understand this future scenerio:. Shipping costs will significantly decrease, what will consumers and shareholders spend the extra money on? Who knows what they will spend the extra money on, could be healthcare, boats, TVs, whatever. But new jobs will be created in these expanded industries. It really, really bothers me the constant "x technology will drive x people out…

> If we had established UBI then, and people could get paid to sit around, imagine the state we'd be in today.

We might even be in a better place than we are today. There would be even more entrepreneurship and labor would have more bargaining power when entering new industries.

Nothing about UBI prevents there from being new opportunities created. If anything, it provides for more potential for those opportunities by encouraging people to leave shitty low-productivity jobs to start their own thing or to search for a higher productivity job.

Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

#64

Post by sosborn »

morgante wrote: post #63
tuna-piano wrote: post #6

The other question you need to ask in order to understand this future scenerio:. Shipping costs will significantly decrease, what will consumers and shareholders spend the extra money on? Who knows what they will spend the extra money on, could be healthcare, boats, TVs, whatever. But new jobs will be created in these expanded industries. It really, really bothers me the constant "x technology will drive x people out…

> If we had established UBI then, and people could get paid to sit around, imagine the state we'd be in today. We might even be in a better place than we are today. There would be even more entrepreneurship and labor would have more bargaining power when entering new industries. Nothing about UBI prevents there from being new opportunities created. If anything, it provides for more potential for those opportunities b…

> There would be even more entrepreneurship

That seems like a highly debatable statement.

Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

#65

Post by morgante »

Pinckney wrote: post #51
merpnderp wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shockingly enough, a UBI has been a libertarian concept for nearly half a century. If UBI had some reasonable limitations, like say 10% of the GDP divided evenly amoungst those who apply, it would provide a hard bottom to poverty while leaving huge incentives to find gainful employment. I'm not saying it wouldn't quickly turn into 51% of the people voting themselves 100% of the money (which would quickly become worth…

>Shockingly enough, a UBI has been a libertarian concept for nearly half a century. Can you recommend any reading on this?

Milton Friedman famously advocated a negative income tax. [0]

[0] http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/08/why-aren...

Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

#66

Post by merpnderp »

jondubois wrote: post #19

The only people who really benefit from innovation are entrepreneurs, investors and shareholders. The majority of the population are actually worse off because of innovation (at least this is the case right now - The value is just not trickling down). The worst part of this will come when even highly educated people start losing their jobs to machines... We will have a situation where entrepreneurs, investors and com…

Everyone directly benefits from most innovations. Even this one will see the 318 million people directly benefit from drastically lower transportation costs to their goods, where ~2 million will need retraining, or likely transitioning into related jobs.

I used to be a truck driver and before and even during, I worked the dock. The only difference between me and the guys on the dock was I could always pass a pee test, I'd spent 5 minutes studying the CDL test manual, and I spent an hour passing both parts of the CDL test which was about as difficult as 6th grade spelling tests. And cheaper truck transport will increase the demand for dock workers.

Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

#67

Post by internaut »

beyondcompute wrote: post #27
kbenson wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In what way is this different than the industrial revolution? Are we, as a world, wallowing in relatively more people starving and in poverty than ever before? Why is this different?

Well, I still believe that world became better than it was: https://www.ted.com/talks/larry_brilliant_makes_the_case_for... And, of course, it all is just a food for thought, doesn't necessarily mean we need to prohibit sales of self-driving vehicles (except for special technical applications). But still we have to understand that it's our conscious effort, not just the "natural force of Progress". As a society we sh…

> But still we have to understand that it's our conscious effort, not just the "natural force of Progress".

Thank you, yes.

That so many people in the 'intelligentsia' seem to think it all happens automatically is a really dangerous meme. It is a big part of why so many TED talks are kind of fraudulent.

Society has to fix complex problems, but first the people in it have to recognize problems are actually real instead of pretending everything's great. The risk of being 'glamoured' (like the bewitching of the Lords and Ladies in Terry Pratchett's books) is real. You have to either acclimate in places that that live outside of the narrative (the flyover states, the continent of Africa), or use your imagination. Otherwise you risk being in an optimism bubble with your contemporaries, much as people bemoaning the world tend to wind up in bars together. It is super important to understand that reversals in fortune occur starting at the peripheral of an economic system rather than at the heartland, at the city. That is why whole countries are going into disrepair while almost nobody in the West notices. They just think it is shit because it was always (relatively) shit in the 3rd world or in the 'stix', but it is at the peripheral that things start to break down, that models start to not correspond to reality!

Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

#68

Post by morgante »

sosborn wrote: post #64
morgante wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If we had established UBI then, and people could get paid to sit around, imagine the state we'd be in today. We might even be in a better place than we are today. There would be even more entrepreneurship and labor would have more bargaining power when entering new industries. Nothing about UBI prevents there from being new opportunities created. If anything, it provides for more potential for those opportunities b…

> There would be even more entrepreneurship That seems like a highly debatable statement.

I agree that it's debatable, mostly because we don't have good empirical evidence about UBI.

However, it can be reasoned about. I have two arguments:

1. It is hard to start a company while working for someone else, particularly if you're working in a low-wage job. There is definitely evidence for this phenomenon, as unemployment leads to more entrepreneurship. [0]

2. It is hard to start a company while starving. Starting a company requires a longer time horizon than finding a job. Hence, if there isn't a adequate social support in place, I think a lot of people will prioritize finding a job over starting a company. This is born out in some empirical studies. [1]

[0] https://www.sba.gov/sites/default/files/rs394tot.pdf

[1] http://www.kauffman.org/~/media/kauffman_org/resources/2016/...

Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

#69

Post by awad »

jmadsen wrote: post #60
tuna-piano wrote: post #6

The other question you need to ask in order to understand this future scenerio:. Shipping costs will significantly decrease, what will consumers and shareholders spend the extra money on? Who knows what they will spend the extra money on, could be healthcare, boats, TVs, whatever. But new jobs will be created in these expanded industries. It really, really bothers me the constant "x technology will drive x people out…

or... decreased shipping costs will go into the pockets of the business owners as additional profits. Since I'm already used to paying $X for that, why would you necessarily cut that out when you can keep it? Just another possibility.

Because a competitor will come along and do so

Re: American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

#70

Post by merpnderp »

pmarreck wrote: post #44

What then? Progress, perhaps. ::eyeroll:: Disclaimer: In 1997 I was cut off by a semi (in the middle of trying to pass him), who did NOT signal, on a 2 lane road (I-5 in California, speed limit was 85 or so), and ended up entering the ditch and rolling over 8 times and shattered my hand (it's fine now, but it took a while). The driver never stopped. I was lucky to walk away from that one. Sorry, truckers, but your jo…

Trucking is so big because it is far more efficient than trains. Lol trying to just in time your inventory using trains.
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