Well, none of those listed technologies is practical. Ternary logic is really cool, but it only gets you about a 10% efficiency improvement. I think it would be awesome to go in this direction, but retooling our entire tech stack for that isn't going to happen. I mean, look at x86. The only thing that will really make progress is molecular nanotechnology. I had always believed that reaching the end of silicon process…
Moore’s Law Is About to Get Weird (2015)
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Re: Moore’s Law Is About to Get Weird (2015)
#32Well, none of those listed technologies is practical. Ternary logic is really cool, but it only gets you about a 10% efficiency improvement. I think it would be awesome to go in this direction, but retooling our entire tech stack for that isn't going to happen. I mean, look at x86. The only thing that will really make progress is molecular nanotechnology. I had always believed that reaching the end of silicon process…
In the end, the party decided that code compatibility with the west was more important than independent innovation, and the soviet computer industry slowly lost it's charm and died in the late 80s.
Never heard of a ternary computer since then.
Re: Moore’s Law Is About to Get Weird (2015)
#33One thought that isn't on here: Once the process is "mature" and isn't changing every few years, the error rate could be squeezed way down. That would make it practical and economical to make larger chips. There are cooling and power issues too but I'm sure those are solvable. Make way for the 64-bit 128-core 1024gb RAM 12cm^2 SoC? Call it More's Law? Or a BFC? (for Big F'ing Chip?)
>Make way for the 64-bit 128-core 1024gb RAM 8cm^2 SoC This is already happening? Intel Xeon Knights Landing already has an enormous 6.83cm^2 die size. It has 72 "cores," each of which has a 512-bit vector processor. In some sense, you could say that this chip has 9,216 "single precision cores." It also supports up to 384GB DDR4 RAM, which is not far from your 1024GB. The term "core" is becoming vague, as NVIDIA refe…
Re: Moore’s Law Is About to Get Weird (2015)
#34Well, none of those listed technologies is practical. Ternary logic is really cool, but it only gets you about a 10% efficiency improvement. I think it would be awesome to go in this direction, but retooling our entire tech stack for that isn't going to happen. I mean, look at x86. The only thing that will really make progress is molecular nanotechnology. I had always believed that reaching the end of silicon process…
If anything this necessitates advances in parallel computing. We can keep up with Moores law for a bit longer if we add more cores too.
Re: Moore’s Law Is About to Get Weird (2015)
#35Earlier quoted context omitted.
Or... continuing with the BFC concept... make chips with monster caches or even with all SRAM running at core speed. That's not been done in a while.
Caches effectively are SRAM. It's inherently much less dense than DRAM; I had a quick look on Intel and the largest I could see was 37Mb of cache.
Re: Moore’s Law Is About to Get Weird (2015)
#36If we're going to see any developments in alternative architectures and hardware, it's going to happen in the cloud computing space. From my perspective, this is the only sector that is in the unique position to sell specialized computing services to customers on a mass scale and make great margins in the process.
There are many interesting and useful things you can do outside of Von Neumann architectures and Turing Complete systems that were never practical on PCs. Simple services like Reddis could probably be implemented with alternative memory architectures like content-addressable memory. Many useful algorithms in the data analytic and machine learning space can be compiled down the specialized hardware using using a combination of transistors and memristors.
For companies like Amazon, Microsoft + Google, there's actually a financial incentive to harmonize hardware and software much in the same way Seymour Cray harmonized the software and hardware of Cray's supercomputers. These cloud companies don't want to be constrained to selling commodity virtual machines. They want to sell you the next generation PaaS solution like DynamoDB, SQL Azure or Firebase so they can lock you into their cloud platform.
If there's a future where developers are writing code in special DSLs that's compiled to gates on an FPGA, the cloud computing guys will be exploring it because they have a huge incentive to get their customer's into the walled garden that yields better margins. If you can create one platform service that developers love and runs on cheaper specialized hardware, you'll be able to destroy your competitors and signal an alternative hardware arms race.
Re: Moore’s Law Is About to Get Weird (2015)
#37Moore's Law is a limit that ultimately arises from economics. The costs to keep Moore's Law going are exponential (just like the gain), and fewer and fewer companies are willing to pay the increasingly high price.
I was always primed to believe the exponential gains were essentially "free" and came with a fixed amount of investment into the industry. Understanding that this isn't true explains why Moore's Law will end unless demand is exponentially increasing.
Re: Moore’s Law Is About to Get Weird (2015)
#38From the article: > "...Moore’s Law, which states that the number of transistors that can be squeezed onto a semiconductor chip of a given size doubles roughly every two years, has held true since the mid 1960s..." I thought it was the case that Moore's "Law" hasn't held up since ~2012. I believe Intel and others have stated that as of 2012 or so, with 22nm processes, transistor density now doubles every ~2.5 years a…
I thought it was before that, like 1999. I pretty sure I had an Intel Pentium III 2 GHz processor in 99. The computer I am using to type this comment is 2.5 GHz. More's law is long dead, we aren't going to see 12 GHz machines in the next 6 years.
Re: Moore’s Law Is About to Get Weird (2015)
#39Intel's 3DXPoint has already brought memristor memory units to market. The beauty of memristor architectures is that they can be used for logic and storage, so you can create some radical new architectures with them.
I'm too lazy to link the talk by Stan Williams of HP, but if you google it it's the ~45min one.
This is the next architecture because it's already here. All that other stuff is vaporware.
Re: Moore’s Law Is About to Get Weird (2015)
#40From the article: > "...Moore’s Law, which states that the number of transistors that can be squeezed onto a semiconductor chip of a given size doubles roughly every two years, has held true since the mid 1960s..." I thought it was the case that Moore's "Law" hasn't held up since ~2012. I believe Intel and others have stated that as of 2012 or so, with 22nm processes, transistor density now doubles every ~2.5 years a…
>I thought it was the case that Moore's "Law" hasn't held up since ~2012. I thought it was before that, like 1999. I pretty sure I had an Intel Pentium III 2 GHz processor in 99. The computer I am using to type this comment is 2.5 GHz. More's law is long dead, we aren't going to see 12 GHz machines in the next 6 years.