Along the same vein, Daniel Kahneman's Thinking Fast and Slow does a comprehensive job of explaining why humans are really bad intuitive statisticians and how the systems in our brain make decisions. He's the authority on the subject and the book is revered by many in the psychology field and outside.
The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]
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Re: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]
#22In section 17, Stress-Influence Tendency (p21-22), he mentions some final work by Pavlov, but doesn't provide a citation. I spent some time trying to find it when I first read this years ago, but was unable to. I'm wondering whether it's even reliable: I'd think that work by Pavlov could be found with him as an author, rather than in a "popular paperback" written by an un-named psychiatrist. If anyone knows what book…
""...popular paperback, written by some Rockefeller-financed psychiatrist, when I was trying to figure out..""
https://www.amazon.com/Battle-Mind-Brainwashing-Evangelists-...
"In 1938 Sargant was awarded a Rockefeller Fellowship" says author's wiki. I think this book fits the bill.
Re: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]
#23Re: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]
#24Although this scan is quite readable, I did a cursory search for a cleaner PDF. Failed, but the first hit was a nice transcript of the original talk: http://www.rbcpa.com/mungerspeech_june_95.pdf
It's interesting that the material was heavily rearranged for 2005 version (submitted PDF scan), which is acknowledged at the end to be a combination and enhancement of three talks.
Re: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]
#25This is by Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's less-public partner. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Munger There are two great books collecting his thoughts: https://sivers.org/book/SeekingWisdom https://www.poorcharliesalmanack.com/pca.php His main quip is, "All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I'll never go there." It's meant metaphorically, in that his approach to success is mainly to just avoid mis…
Interesting. I've read quite a few of Buffett's year-end reports, I wonder how much of these are written by Munger? Their writing style seems to overlap a little.
Charlie influences Warren's style for sure. He edits the rough drafts and gives feedback to Warren.
Re: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]
#26This is by Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's less-public partner. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Munger There are two great books collecting his thoughts: https://sivers.org/book/SeekingWisdom https://www.poorcharliesalmanack.com/pca.php His main quip is, "All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I'll never go there." It's meant metaphorically, in that his approach to success is mainly to just avoid mis…
Interesting. I've read quite a few of Buffett's year-end reports, I wonder how much of these are written by Munger? Their writing style seems to overlap a little.
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Re: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]
#27I realize this is going to make me sound rather dull-minded, but despite the pdf sounding very interesting, I don't have much inclination to read 27 pages of it without knowing more. Can someone summarize the author's main thesis, and whether he's able to robustly justify that thesis with supporting evidence?
Main thesis is that people's behavior is not rational in specific ways, and can be better understood through a list of various "Tendencies" that people are subject to. There's a list of them on the bottom of page 4. Supporting anecdotes are provided, but they don't prove anything. Best case, this paper will help you organize, crystallize and clarify things you yourself have always known or noticed, but never had a na…
The anecdotes leave me feeling that a person simply needs to ask, "is my behavior going to become a good or bad anecdote?"
Re: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]
#28Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sure, they totally did! (And because you didn't read it, you'll never know if I'm bullshitting you or not. Don't outsource your thinking.)
That's like not reading reviews before going to a restaurant.
And there are good reasons to not read them, either.
I happen to like many ethnic foods and like exploring restaurants that I believe might be authentic. Those restaurants often have poor reviews because of customers who were there more for the dining experience than the food quality. Or they are expecting something that doesn't jive with the cuisine (eg. "that Filet Mignon was totally undercooked, and when they brought it back well done, it was so tough I couldn't eat it.").
So in many cases, restaurant reviews are useless to me.
Papers are similar in that I may be evaluating them under different criteria than those giving me the summary.
Re: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]
#29In section 17, Stress-Influence Tendency (p21-22), he mentions some final work by Pavlov, but doesn't provide a citation. I spent some time trying to find it when I first read this years ago, but was unable to. I'm wondering whether it's even reliable: I'd think that work by Pavlov could be found with him as an author, rather than in a "popular paperback" written by an un-named psychiatrist. If anyone knows what book…
""...popular paperback, written by some Rockefeller-financed psychiatrist, when I was trying to figure out.."" https://www.amazon.com/Battle-Mind-Brainwashing-Evangelists-... "In 1938 Sargant was awarded a Rockefeller Fellowship" says author's wiki. I think this book fits the bill.
It does indeed seem to be the book. Thanks.
The author seems to be controversial. The Wikipedia entry on him [1] says things like "his reliance on dogma rather than clinical evidence have confirmed his reputation as a controversial figure whose work is seldom cited in modern psychiatric texts.", and others "described him as 'autocratic, a danger, a disaster' and spoke about 'the damage he did'".
Re: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment (2005) [pdf]
#30Earlier quoted context omitted.
Interesting. I've read quite a few of Buffett's year-end reports, I wonder how much of these are written by Munger? Their writing style seems to overlap a little.
Charlie influences Warren's style for sure. He edits the rough drafts and gives feedback to Warren.
And the amusing thing is during the meetings, while Warren is going to town on the podium, he just sits back and eats candy with this wry smile on his face...