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What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

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181–190 of 310 posts

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#181

First, there are plenty of jobs, but not enough people that have decided to develop themselves enough to have the skills to do them. For example (a real life one, unfortunately for me): I need a biopsy of a mass near my heart, but the current waiting time for this procedure here in Seattle (at both major hospitals) is two months. What we do have is plenty of regulations that constrain the supply of physicians, servic…

That's like saying there's plenty of room for musicians if you're Mozart. The amount of investment required to develop yourself for a target field has grown astronomically, but that's been coupled with a push down in wages. I know lawyers who spent a fortune for their degree, passed the Bar, and make barely more than minimum wage. Regulation isn't causing this; automation is causing this.

>Regulation isn't causing this; automation is causing this.

Neither regulation nor automation is causing this. Political-economic suppression of labor and productive enterprise in favor of rent-seeking is causing this.

Let's imagine an alternate universe in which different political choices were made. For instance, in the alternate universe, Elon Musk started a techno-progressive political party and swept into power in 2008, with a program calling for:

* Massive housing construction in urban areas

* Full repair of our famously-crumbling infrastructure

* Intercity Hyperloops for America's coastal corridors

* Light-rail and subway construction in the major cities

* Rural broadband everywhere

* Single-payer healthcare

* Reducing the underlying costs of health-care through better disease prevention

* Reducing the underlying costs of health-care through regenerative medicine designed to fight (and someday stop) aging-driven disease and death

Now, the major economic impact here is going to be massive, truly humongous amounts of growth in the state sector, most of it spent directly on employing people to reduce the carrying costs of the economy, increase productivity, and serve immediate human needs. Most of the specific projects to do so are things that we, in this universe, recognize and understand; the more radical projects that we don't already understand how to accomplish promise radical returns.

Putting aside how Elon Musk pays for it all, it would absorb a lot of what is, in our universe, excess labor in the construction and STEM R&D sectors. It would raise wages in the most direct way possible: by buying up labor and paying it to do stuff. It would also increase demand for manufactured goods, leading to either more manufacturing employment or more automation R&D.

That alternate universe is the economically normal universe -- this is what we've been fooled into forgetting. In that universe, unemployment, low growth rates, and low returns on investments in physical production indicate that useful inputs to production are lying fallow, useful stuff that could get done is not getting done.

Our universe is the weird one, in which relatively high unemployment and low growth are considered the normal state of affairs, with corrective intervention to use the idle resources sounding weird or impossible. The simplest reason someone would actually prefer our universe to Elon Musk's high-tech, job-filled, high-wage alternate universe is because they want labor to be cheap because they make their money from rents on monopolies, land, natural resources, and access to capital, and expensive labor is a threat to rents in general.

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#182

It seems like there are 2 things that can be done: 1) Make it easier for new firms of all kinds to open and create job. (Less occupational licensing requirements, etc) 2) Reduce the cost/burden of employment. (If someone has the choice to hire an employee in SF and Texas, they'll choose Texas since the laws are more business-friendly)

For #2, if by "business friendly", you mean anti-employee. Despite all this hoopla about California being "business unfriendly", it still leads in startups and innovation. Mainly because a lot of the talent wants to be in a place where they have freedoms, and don't have to worry about business taking their work done on off hours.

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#183
At Emblem 21, we analyze not just the time, material, and energy costs for economic activity, but also the complexity components as well. Every economic activity consumes and yields complexity. This complexity is difficult to measure given its contextual nature, but it is encoded into the pricing of the transaction itself.

Currently working on very advanced neural networks to detect the edges of this contextual complexity.

Autonomous labor doesn't destroy jobs because the autonomous labor is also a consumer of complexity, energy, and time.

https://s32.postimg.org/pjzgj39wz/Labor.png

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Japanese government is doing exactly literally what the parent comment describes - paying people to dig up and break apart rocks: http://www.japantimes.co.jp/life/2013/05/19/environment/the-... This has been extremely destructive to the environment and has not done anything for the Japanese economy for the last 20 years. It has been effective as a way of transferring taxpayer money to construction company preside…

> The Japanese government is doing exactly literally what the parent comment describes - paying people to dig up and break apart rocks That's actually not the same thing. The parent comment's "have them go break large rocks into smaller rocks" carried the connotation of useless make-work. Your link describes a facet of concrete production, which is hardly useless.

> Your link describes a facet of concrete production, which is hardly useless.

Here is the key part of the article: "critics claim this is merely a reversion to the LDP’s traditional policy of pork-barrel spending on concrete structures"

Concrete itself has no inherent value. In Japan concrete is being used to ruin the natural environment as part of government make-work schemes, with very little discernible material benefit:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg15320645-500-forum-la...

https://welovecarbondioxide.wordpress.com/2015/10/15/japans-...

http://joshnjaxnjapan.blogspot.com/2010/03/concrete-rivers-o...

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#185
post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What "welfare" are you talking about? I don't know of any social assistance in my state that goes to individuals who can work but aren't working. Medicare would be close, but in practice that's very difficult to qualify for, and covering health care is a far cry from "pay[ing] them to play video games."

If they aren't supported by the state, they are supported by their families.

I don't see how that's a relevant response to my comment, as it doesn't answer my question. It's not really a matter of public policy, unless you're suggesting we some how legally prevent people from supporting family members who aren't working.

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#186

In the mid-west we have programmers 2 years out of school making $100k in places where the CPI is 90. What if we just have a massive misallocation of resources and people should be learning how to program, nurse, become doctors, plumbers, HVAC, or all the other jobs that pay incredibly well?

Training for those jobs takes time and resources. Not everyone who has lost their existing job will be able to invest those things at possibly getting another one.

Also, if you send a bunch of people into those fields, the cost of labor will drop, and they won't pay incredibly well for long.

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#187
post #24

Side note: If college education was "free," it might encourage faster re-skilling and more "profitable" to society.

Except while I'm getting that education, I still have bills to pay. I still have a mortgage, and I still have a family to feed.

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's like saying there's plenty of room for musicians if you're Mozart. The amount of investment required to develop yourself for a target field has grown astronomically, but that's been coupled with a push down in wages. I know lawyers who spent a fortune for their degree, passed the Bar, and make barely more than minimum wage. Regulation isn't causing this; automation is causing this.

There is no robot that can knock me out (safely so that I wake up when everything is done), snake a thing down my windpipe, poke through the exact right spot in my bronchial tube and into my mediastinum (a name for the bag that my heart), and retrieve a chunk of whatever surrounds my aorta. But here I wait, while people capable of doing this (or at least capable of learning how to do it - and that's a lot of people)…

One can visualize a future in which disposable robots are very small and remotely controlled, capable of liquefying specific organic substances or dispensing drug doses.

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or, you know, we can admit there is enough food and shelter to go around for everyone and stop pretending everyone needs to work.

I'm happy to admit it, and wish others were. But it seems there's a lot of convincing to do first.

Certainly. Didn't mean it would be easy but that's the trick with all social and cultural change. You just keep at it until everyone thinks you were right all along.

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#190

People forget History. The two times where labor was more valuable than capital. 1 | After the black death in Europe 2 | After the second world war Most of history's default was the gilded age, the roman empire survived for 600[1] years with having worse inequality than in the modern times. Usually the only way to reverse the trend is by a large scale elimination of significant portion of young people. [1] EDIT : cor…

Or, you know, we can admit there is enough food and shelter to go around for everyone and stop pretending everyone needs to work.

Yes... We should promise them free food and shelter, in exchange for votes.
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