What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around? • Hacker News Board

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#151

Post by squeaky-clean » Thu, Jul 21, 2016, 10:06 PM UTC

jdminhbg wrote: post #144

johnwheeler wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To see why that is true, imagine we lived in a sports-based economy. In such a marketplace, I would be a flop. You could supply me with the world’s best instruction, and I could endlessly strive to improve my skills. But, alas, on the gridiron or basketball court I would never command even a minimum wage. The brutal truth is that an advanced economic system, whether it be geared to physical or mental skills, will lea…

> To see why that is true, imagine we lived in a sports-based economy. Sports are zero-sum, the real-world economy is not.

Are sports economics zero-sum? Both teams get paid for playing. If one team loses, they don't give money to the other team.

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#152

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Jul 21, 2016, 10:07 PM UTC

emodendroket wrote: post #119

wildmusings wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, let's use the coercive power of the state to direct the bulk of people's daily lives. What could possibly go wrong?

Yes, let's use the coercive power of private capital to direct the bulk of people's lives. What could possibly go wrong? More substantially, what is your solution?

[deleted]

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#153

Post by dsylexicus » Thu, Jul 21, 2016, 10:08 PM UTC

jobs are the cost of satisfying human economic desires. we want to minimise costs, not increase them.since nobody knows what sort of jobs will exist even 5 years from today, there is no point in speculating and wringing hands. who saw the rise of zumba dance teachers? theres atleast a million of them today and they dont need high education or be employed in silicon valley. did president clinton with all the information available at his disposal have the foresight to plan for an app economy for his citizens or imagine how internet search would be something different than what lycos offered?

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#154

Post by fineIllregister » Thu, Jul 21, 2016, 10:08 PM UTC

yummyfajitas wrote: post #58

welanes wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think anybody pays them "to remain unemployed". But in most countries they receive social welfare while out of work. You could have them go break large rocks into smaller rocks if you have an ideological bent against people being unemployed but unless those rocks can be sold to somebody for more than what unemployment benefit is there's no incentive. Edit: Agree with the comments below. Rather than being idle…

But not the money to pay for these jobs....But in most countries they receive social welfare while out of work. See the contradiction here? We could put these people to work engaging in labor that is valuable, but not as valuable as the cost of their welfare. I.e. pay them $7.25/hour to do $5/hour worth of labor (net cost to society = $2.25/hour). Yet we don't. Instead we pay them to play video games (net cost to soc…

What "welfare" are you talking about? I don't know of any social assistance in my state that goes to individuals who can work but aren't working. Medicare would be close, but in practice that's very difficult to qualify for, and covering health care is a far cry from "pay[ing] them to play video games."

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#155

Post by gnaritas » Thu, Jul 21, 2016, 10:08 PM UTC

jdminhbg wrote: post #144

johnwheeler wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To see why that is true, imagine we lived in a sports-based economy. In such a marketplace, I would be a flop. You could supply me with the world’s best instruction, and I could endlessly strive to improve my skills. But, alas, on the gridiron or basketball court I would never command even a minimum wage. The brutal truth is that an advanced economic system, whether it be geared to physical or mental skills, will lea…

> To see why that is true, imagine we lived in a sports-based economy. Sports are zero-sum, the real-world economy is not.

True, but not relevant.

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#156

Post by logfromblammo » Thu, Jul 21, 2016, 10:08 PM UTC

yummyfajitas wrote: post #58

welanes wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think anybody pays them "to remain unemployed". But in most countries they receive social welfare while out of work. You could have them go break large rocks into smaller rocks if you have an ideological bent against people being unemployed but unless those rocks can be sold to somebody for more than what unemployment benefit is there's no incentive. Edit: Agree with the comments below. Rather than being idle…

But not the money to pay for these jobs....But in most countries they receive social welfare while out of work. See the contradiction here? We could put these people to work engaging in labor that is valuable, but not as valuable as the cost of their welfare. I.e. pay them $7.25/hour to do $5/hour worth of labor (net cost to society = $2.25/hour). Yet we don't. Instead we pay them to play video games (net cost to soc…

There is a tiny flaw in your reasoning. I will give you a hint as to what it is. Prison inmate workers may earn about $4.73/day in the US.

If you pay someone $7.25/h to do nothing, that might be considered an incentive payment to not do work that does net harm to society.

While it would always be better to pay the $7.25 for something that might benefit the economy less in absolute terms, there is no "zero" that can be used to calculate a "net" cost of social welfare. Playing video games is not plowing a large vehicle through a crowd of people, or mixing fertilizer with #2 fuel, or strapping tiny backpacks filled with thermite and moisture-sensitive primers to bats, or cooking meth, or cooking krokodil desomorphine, or turning tricks in the park bathroom, or pooping in the neighborhood swimming pool.

One person can be very destructive, or at least thousands of dollars worth of annoying, before anyone would bother stepping in to check them.

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#157

Post by amelius » Thu, Jul 21, 2016, 10:10 PM UTC

jdminhbg wrote: post #144

johnwheeler wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To see why that is true, imagine we lived in a sports-based economy. In such a marketplace, I would be a flop. You could supply me with the world’s best instruction, and I could endlessly strive to improve my skills. But, alas, on the gridiron or basketball court I would never command even a minimum wage. The brutal truth is that an advanced economic system, whether it be geared to physical or mental skills, will lea…

> To see why that is true, imagine we lived in a sports-based economy. Sports are zero-sum, the real-world economy is not.

But it is still a winner-takes-all economy.

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#158

Post by dsylexicus » Thu, Jul 21, 2016, 10:16 PM UTC

karllager wrote: post #80

forgotpwtomain wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Allocating labor on the basis of whether or not traders and stock owners can profit in the short to medium term turns out to be an unintelligent way to strategise an economy. And yet, this turns out to be the most succesful strategy civilization has used so far.

I always wonder, how people can associate effectiveness, success and other positive things with the current developments. The price of the progress, as we experience it today, is enormous. Exhaustion of natural resources, severe climate change, not to mention societal costs. We see a rapid rise in violence across continents and this seems to be just the beginning. I can easily see the western world turning into total…

exhaustion of natural resources? hmm. natural resources are INFINITE by definition since the universe is infinite. what is limited are "reserves". panicking about reserves dwindling is what Tim Worstall calls the 'No breakfast fallacy' we dont look at our refrigerator which is running out of milk and worry that the world is running out of milk. we know that there is an entire ecosystem of farmers , truckers and supermarkets producing milk for us. the confusion between reserves an resources is common

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#159

Post by mac01021 » Thu, Jul 21, 2016, 10:17 PM UTC

david927 wrote: post #96

maxharris wrote: post #78

First, there are plenty of jobs, but not enough people that have decided to develop themselves enough to have the skills to do them. For example (a real life one, unfortunately for me): I need a biopsy of a mass near my heart, but the current waiting time for this procedure here in Seattle (at both major hospitals) is two months. What we do have is plenty of regulations that constrain the supply of physicians, servic…

That's like saying there's plenty of room for musicians if you're Mozart. The amount of investment required to develop yourself for a target field has grown astronomically, but that's been coupled with a push down in wages. I know lawyers who spent a fortune for their degree, passed the Bar, and make barely more than minimum wage. Regulation isn't causing this; automation is causing this.

Many jobs have been automated away. Jobs for medical doctors, as far as I can tell, are not among those.

Nor must you be a genius to be an MD.

It is a huge investment, though, at least in the USA.

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#160

Post by bduerst » Thu, Jul 21, 2016, 10:23 PM UTC

adamnemecek wrote: post #121

bduerst wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The trend here is that humans will become ubiquitous learning machines, valued for their ability to fulfill variable demand. Automation works well through economies of scale to fulfill large, steady amounts of demand. A.I. works well when there is a lot of existing data or logged activity to train on. For new, variable, or niche demand markets, Humans will be unique in that they can fill the demand faster than A.I. o…

Yeah, and your argument is a lot more concise. Have you read anything on the topic?

No. I've worked some people to try and come up with product ideas to fit this type of future, but it's at least 5-10 years off, and dependent on factors like the current title-based education system being replaced by something more skills-based.