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What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

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131–140 of 310 posts

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#131

Honest question: Is it not widely accepted that 1) Eventually, and probably pretty soon (within 100years), that there obviously won't be jobs for everyone. Automation, progress(efficiency gains) and increasing population makes it inevitable. 2) That a general "goal" of society is do away with jobs. In any traditional sense. To me we've been approaching that ever since agriculture provided ability to support specialis…

If 2 is true our politics (at least in the U.S.) haven't caught up. We have to be comfortable with the idea of simply giving money away to people who are not earning it, or giving them more than the market would otherwise bear. One of the ways we could do that is by making university tuition free, to say "well, if you can't get a job, you can always spend your time thinking instead." Instead we're restricting access…

I feel like the US by design is poised to fail in competing against other countries when workforce becomes automated.

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's like saying there's plenty of room for musicians if you're Mozart. The amount of investment required to develop yourself for a target field has grown astronomically, but that's been coupled with a push down in wages. I know lawyers who spent a fortune for their degree, passed the Bar, and make barely more than minimum wage. Regulation isn't causing this; automation is causing this.

There is no robot that can knock me out (safely so that I wake up when everything is done), snake a thing down my windpipe, poke through the exact right spot in my bronchial tube and into my mediastinum (a name for the bag that my heart), and retrieve a chunk of whatever surrounds my aorta. But here I wait, while people capable of doing this (or at least capable of learning how to do it - and that's a lot of people)…

My view is that the times when Capitalism has been a long leash it ends up being wildly destructive. I love fire for cooking, forest fires not so much. I certainly don't think that the reason we don't have more jobs in America is that businesses are so hard pressed with labor laws. I just don't see that.

What I have seen, over and over again, are that employers are realizing that they're now in the cat seat and become nothing less than abusive, deeply abusive, to their employees as a result. Once they see how many people apply for new openings and realize how unlikely it is that current employees will quit in this environment, they become mini-dictators. It's an interesting phenomenon.

All that aside, I do wish you good health and hope that you can get the treatment you need soon.

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#133
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Then the government should either directly employ people or else provide them with an income, or some combination of these. It is interesting to see that, in the early 21st century, communism is becoming palatable again. Could this be due to all of the old communist states either ceasing to exist or (for instance, the case of China) changing into something quite unlike their former sleves? In short, did we forget ab…

Unless the US went communist in the 1930s, government employment, even for the express purpose of creating jobs, wouldn't constitute communism. Besides that, if there is really not enough demand for workers, and there is never going to be, the alternative would seem to be a permanently unemployed underclass.

> Unless the US went communist in the 1930s, government employment, even for the express purpose of creating jobs, wouldn't constitute communism.

I came across this interview recently:

HG Wells:

> My visit to the United States excited my mind. The old financial world is collapsing; the economic life of the country is being reorganised on new lines.

> Lenin said: “We must learn to do business,” learn this from the capitalists. Today the capitalists have to learn from you, to grasp the spirit of Socialism. It seems to me that what is taking place in the United States is a profound reorganisation, the creation of planned, that is, Socialist, economy. You and Roosevelt begin from two different starting points. But is there not a relation in ideas, a kinship of ideas, between Moscow and Washington?

> In Washington I was struck by the same thing I see going on here; they are building offices, they are creating a number of state regulation bodies, they are organising a long-needed civil service. Their need, like yours, is directive ability.

Stalin:

> The United States is pursuing a different aim from that which we are pursuing in the USSR. The aim which the Americans are pursuing arose out of the economic troubles, out of the economic crisis. The Americans want to rid themselves of the crisis on the basis of private capitalist activity, without changing the economic basis. They are trying to reduce to a minimum the ruin, the losses caused by the existing economic system.

> Here, however, as you know, in place of the old, destroyed economic basis, an entirely different, a new economic basis has been created. Even if the Americans you mention partly achieve their aim, ie, reduce these losses to a minimum, they will not destroy the roots of the anarchy which is inherent in the existing capitalist system. They are preserving the economic system which must inevitably lead, and cannot but lead, to anarchy in production. Thus, at best, it will be a matter, not of the reorganisation of society, not of abolishing the old social system which gives rise to anarchy and crises, but of restricting certain of its excesses. Subjectively, perhaps, these Americans think they are reorganising society; objectively, however, they are preserving the present basis of society. That is why, objectively, there will be no reorganisation of society.

> Nor will there be planned economy. What is planned economy? What are some of its attributes? Planned economy tries to abolish unemployment. Let us suppose it is possible, while preserving the capitalist system, to reduce unemployment to a certain minimum. But surely, no capitalist would ever agree to the complete abolition of unemployment, to the abolition of the reserve army of unemployed, the purpose of which is to bring pressure on the labour market, to ensure a supply of cheap labour. You will never compel a capitalist to incur loss to himself and agree to a lower rate of profit for the sake of satisfying the needs of the people.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/04/h-g-wells-it-se...

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#134

For anyone who has a theory that involves making new jobs and retraining people, consider these cases: A) 50 something factory worker whos job along with the other 100 folks he works with, have been eliminated by automation or some other sort of efficiency. B) 30 something software engineer who's field (except for research) has been eliminated by AI. "A" is something most of us have the luxury of had waving away with…

Well if AI can replace software engineers then it can probably obviate many other jobs as well, meaning there would have to be greater societal restructuring than just some out of work engineers finding new careers. If you are 30 and you're worried your job will be automated away before you retire (but before universal income), perhaps you should get a head start by learning new skills that are harder to automate. I…

Which skills, for example, are harder to automate? You may have already seen this YouTube video as its a couple years old, but its premise is that we need to start thinking about what to do when large swaths of the population find themselves unemployable through no fault of their own (since over 45% of the workforce holds jobs that are easy targets for automation in the near future).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU&app=desktop

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#135

First, there are plenty of jobs, but not enough people that have decided to develop themselves enough to have the skills to do them. For example (a real life one, unfortunately for me): I need a biopsy of a mass near my heart, but the current waiting time for this procedure here in Seattle (at both major hospitals) is two months. What we do have is plenty of regulations that constrain the supply of physicians, servic…

> you don't have to convince a committee to give you permission to make a new app. You do if you want to get paid to make it...

But this is an equivocation. In medicine, the present state is that we have the equivalent of censorship in speech.

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#136
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We did a scenario planning project where you put together human trends and factors to try and predict several versions of the future 10 years from now. In one of our scenarios was a future where humans bounced from job to job (high turnover, low unemployment) and skills-based education was cheap and easily accessible. Some of the factors leading to this was the "established"-education bubble bursting, increased autom…

I'm not sure what you're trying to get at but a race to the bottom among municipalities and states to try and attract businesses is already happening and has been for some time. My point is that this won't actually solve the problem posed so much as redirect it somewhere else.

[deleted]

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#137

First, there are plenty of jobs, but not enough people that have decided to develop themselves enough to have the skills to do them. For example (a real life one, unfortunately for me): I need a biopsy of a mass near my heart, but the current waiting time for this procedure here in Seattle (at both major hospitals) is two months. What we do have is plenty of regulations that constrain the supply of physicians, servic…

I've had this suspicion that I've been meaning to look into to find out if the numbers match up. The biggest growing industries to me seem to be the service industry and entertainment. Both of these are really superfluous. If is true, I see this as a symptom that we have fewer useful jobs and are pushing people into these superfluous jobs--kind of a sign that soon we'll have more people than jobs.

More to your case, the more specialized jobs get, the more difficult it is to transition in and out of. Liquidity of skills comes up a lot in history. I've heard the U.S. specifically makes it really difficult for doctors trained in other countries able to practice here. Usually, if there's an under-supply of a skill someone steps in to remedy it.

So why if there's demand for certain jobs, why there aren't more programs to train more of them. It seems like many businesses aren't willing to take on people unless they have the exact skillset where years ago they'd be willing to train people at the business' expense (another feeling I haven't looked into if it's true).

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#138
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We did a scenario planning project where you put together human trends and factors to try and predict several versions of the future 10 years from now. In one of our scenarios was a future where humans bounced from job to job (high turnover, low unemployment) and skills-based education was cheap and easily accessible. Some of the factors leading to this was the "established"-education bubble bursting, increased autom…

I'm not sure what you're trying to get at but a race to the bottom among municipalities and states to try and attract businesses is already happening and has been for some time. My point is that this won't actually solve the problem posed so much as redirect it somewhere else.

#2 solution isn't about moving existing jobs, it's about lowering the barrier to entry for new jobs, since demand isn't fixed and variability will increase.

You will always have tug-of-wars between municipalities (e.g. Applebee's HQ between Missouri and Kansas) - but businesses in states or munis with a low barrier to entry for new jobs can fulfill and capitalize on variable demand faster.

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#139

First, there are plenty of jobs, but not enough people that have decided to develop themselves enough to have the skills to do them. For example (a real life one, unfortunately for me): I need a biopsy of a mass near my heart, but the current waiting time for this procedure here in Seattle (at both major hospitals) is two months. What we do have is plenty of regulations that constrain the supply of physicians, servic…

> What we do have is plenty of regulations that constrain the supply of physicians, services, medical supplies, insurance, and everything else needed to perform operations. It is one of the most un-free markets in America, with predictably disastrous results. Sure, those laws prevent a few people from being duped by charlatans, but they also prevent people like me - who are willing to sit on the phone for hours and days, and willing to do research for weeks on end - the possibility of a longer life.

Sounds like a pitch for medical tourism (traveling to another country for certain kinds of medical procedures at a fraction of the cost of the US)

Re: What If There Just Aren’t Enough Jobs to Go Around?

#140
post #4

Is the "infinite work hypothesis" finally ending?? The answer to "what happens to workers being replaced" has always been "they'll find jobs elsewhere, every time you make a job redundant you create other new jobs", what I've seen called the "infinite work hypothesis" where there will always be new work and the problem is agility, job training, not demand.

No, the problem is misallocation of labor. There's a huge to-do list of jobs that need to be done at almost every level, from design and build of significant infrastructure in most countries around the world, to community-level support work. It would be perfectly possible to retrain the long term unemployed for all but the most difficult design and management elements. They're not done because the metrics of Wall St…

> No, the problem is misallocation of labor.

Exactly. In the US, right now, paved roads are being downgraded to gravel* because interests aren't willing to allow the money be spent to keep up public infrastructure.

https://www.wired.com/2016/07/cash-strapped-towns-un-paving-...

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