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Millennials 'set to earn less than Generation X'

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Re: Millennials 'set to earn less than Generation X'

#151
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not an argument. You're just asserting that it's not possible.

The rise in government's share of the economy correlates with the rise in the economic ills. What is the basis for thinking there is an inflection point where the correlation reverses?

Germany seems to be doing better than most of Europe, despite having higher taxes than most of the countries.

Re: Millennials 'set to earn less than Generation X'

#152
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And I'm still not clear on how taxing the shit out of everyday working citizens somehow redistributes the wealth which is already hoarded by the 0.1%.

Terms to investigate: Multiplier Effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiplier_(economics) Velocity of Money https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocity_of_money

I'll add...

Sectoral Balance Identity https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sectoral_balances

Endogenous Money Creation https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endogenous_money http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521915...

Re: Millennials 'set to earn less than Generation X'

#154
post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Home ownership is a great asset if you're using the home yourself. On the other hand a car is a actually a liability that depreciates over time requiring inspections in regular intervals, compulsory car insurance and a parking lot at both the departure location and the destination.

A home is no different from a car in that it also depreciates, things break, needs to be maintained, repaired, etc. The only real difference is that in major populated areas, the land it sits on tends to be rare and valuable, which allows its value to keep up with or even exceed the rate of inflation.

Also that in most places, mortgage payments + taxes are cheaper than rent for the same property, plus you are building equity. The only real difficulty is scraping up enough cash in hand to pay the down payment - which is where the massive increases in house prices really hose you. 20% of 100k is not unreasonable to save up over a few years on a median salary. 20% of 500k or 1M is completely out of the reach of people outside the top income brackets.

Re: Millennials 'set to earn less than Generation X'

#155
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems hard enough to establish credibility for an in-office job these days. I can't even imagine trying to get a remote gig. Perhaps that says more about me though? Granted, I've deliberately eschewed larger cities, and as a consequence I've had a harder time convincing people that just because my degree was in math I can still be a competent developer.

This is a problem definitely. Freelancing may be required. Save up 5k and that should keep you fed and accommodated in say Laos for a year ... plenty of time to get the freelancing going. Charge as if you are in the US and invest most of it!

Yep, I did this (after going the traditional college route and languishing for a few years after) but more like 15k over three years. I'm a pretty good web developer now but it's still very tough establishing that initial credibility. Plus, I wanted to have many experiences outside of just programming, like learning the language for instance.

Re: Millennials 'set to earn less than Generation X'

#156
post #4

I think for many millennials, the conclusion of this article doesn't come as a surprise. As a member between the Gen X and the millennial crowd, I've certainly seen how much harder people just a few years younger than me have it as well as how much easier for those slightly older. Older generations don't realize that their wealth is primarily built up in what is really an elaborate ponzi scheme of sorts, money which…

Stagnating wages, rapidly increasing house prices, bad terms for renters, increasing university costs. If I were 20 I'd consider working remote and just go live in a much cheaper country. You could get a boomer lifestyle yet!

I know a couple of people who've done that, they all regret it to some extent. Not necessarily doing it, but ignoring other factors of their lives and not being able to easily quit when it wasn't fun anymore. Not saying people shouldn't do it, but it's just not comparable. Once you've realize you don't have to be part of the rat race there are a lot of opportunities, but at the same time societies rules unfortunately doesn't go away. Having some sort of degree and experience to show helps a lot whether it's being involved in a project or getting a visa.

Re: Millennials 'set to earn less than Generation X'

#157
The Stagnation Hypothesis basically explains all of this.

I would like to remind you that earnings, prices in general are phenomenon which relate back to the real world in some way. That is to say they must be side affects of something else.

The cartoon series The Venture Bros symbolizes the Stagnation Hypothesis. If you don't want to watch the entire series to understand the point, just take a look at the episode: Season 3 Episode 2: The Doctor Is Sin (the intro even features Dr T. Venture offering jobs to migrant laborers for which they are absurdly under qualified and very low wages. This, in light of the frequent complaints of worker scarcity in the midst of stagnant wages is quite poignant).

In the series the grandfather (deceased) was able to do all kinds of amazing innovations, space stations, underwater laboratories, biospheres, rolling walkways, new fabrics, all kinds of new machines. The next generation symbolized by Dr T. Venture was unable to compete with all this amazing success and began to act as a hanger-on, a me-too, acting as if he knew what was going on but in actuality understanding nearly none of it and therefore became reliant on sexing up what is really ancient technology to make himself look good to investors and his own self image. His sons, the next iteration of Ventures are permanent children, living in a technology wonderland they effectively treat as magical surroundings. Not only do they not understand the technology of their grandfather, but they don't understand there is anything to understand, despite the fact that as clones they are actually technological artifacts themselves.

Unfortunately this supposed comedy show is a reasonable interpretation of the last few generations.

If you exclude computation (electronics/robots/AI/internet) then there just aren't very many parts of the economy that are genuinely growing. This has been going on since the early 70s.

This has been obfuscated by the accounting of the economy.

The government and central banks have an incentive to produce numbers that sound rosy because they noticed long ago that if the people in the economy felt like things were going well, that they were more likely to spend, invest and work. There is a self fulfilling prophesy nature to it all.

The source of wealth or 'more stuff' is the ability to produce more stuff for less cost. Lower the inputs, up the outputs. Technology is a key element in making that happen.

The problem is that (ex-computation) new innovations are far less likely to affect the average person. Name a single invention outside computers of the last several decades. I do not mean a hypothetical abstraction in a laboratory somewhere.

When people find themselves coming up with close to nothing they resort to saying: well, maybe new innovation is bound up inside classical things we have but cannot see inside of (we are at the Dr T. Venture stage here).

It is certainly true that minor improvements accumulate into a quality of their own over time. That is Toyota's business model. The insides of the cars experience consistent iterative improvement. There are similar analogs in other industries.

But. And this is the key point. That utterly fails to explain why new innovations aren't reaching the common person. If we really were experiencing a boom in innovation and invention we would expect to see thousands of new fields and sub-fields opening up. What new materials technology do you have inside your home that did not exist in 1970? What forms of transport? There are literally dozens of major areas that have not seen any major innovation and they have stopped being labeled 'technology' as a result.

With any technology there exists diminishing returns. Even in computation as Moore's Law attests to.

The real mark of true innovation and invention is the new thing associated with the typical household. For example; suppose the manufacture of aerogel could be brought down by 2 orders of magnitude.

This would be a leap that would revolutionize everything insulation related. Household energy bills could probably be 1/10 of what they are today. And due to the thinness of the fabric and the money it would save, it would get rolled out very quickly indeed.

Re: Millennials 'set to earn less than Generation X'

#158
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've realized it's pretty much pointless, and here's why. There's a bunch of people who don't really pay taxes and don't understand how wealth and taxes work. But they have to file a 1040 every year, so when you talk about taxes they think "income taxes". If you mention "capital gains", mostly their eyes just rollover because they can't conceptualize even what you are talking about. They just don't understand they ar…

Hardly man. I'm a small business owner. I pay a hell of alot in income taxes. I have invested money. The thing is - we all use our resources in this country. We all use the roads, the land, the water, the minerals, and every other item out there. My company probably uses more than the average person. It should be taxed at least equally - if not more as a result. I have a bunch of people that drive all over the place.…

Roads roads roads. It's always roads that people bring up when defending socialism. Look up how much our roads cost to maintain and compare it to our entitlements spending and you'll get a better understanding of what socialism looks like. There's not a capitalist alive who isn't comfortable paying taxes for roads.

Re: Millennials 'set to earn less than Generation X'

#159
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As an X-er watching the millenials and the boomers lobbing grenades at each other, it amuses me that the millenial argument sounds like this: "Those greedy boomers have fucked up the world for everyone else with their overly lavish and unsustainable lifestyles... and they won't let us into their cushy club!" Point of fact is that if you were to give the choice between today's 20-year-old lifestyle and the same in 197…

The factual errors in your argument are extreme. Working class wages were proportionately higher in 1970. Drawing a dividing line is hard, but somewhere between 1970 and 1980, wage gains became decoupled from productivity increases. Medicine quite simply hasn't advanced significantly since 1970. Access to medicine by the underserved has, and accounts for much of increases in outcomes, as well as reduced environmental…

Yeah, my 'factual errors' are 'extreme', and then you rebut pretending that books don't exist anymore. You're painting an overly rosy picture of the past, and you are wrong about medicine not improving in the past 45 years (mental health in particular). Not to mention that you seem to think that the civil rights movement was done and dusted by 1970. Union participation is not a measure in and of itself of life quality, and you conveniently ignore that jobs back then tended to be much more menial and boring - in the modern day we have the relative luxury of saying 'no' to those jobs (hence immigrants doing them).

And, frankly, saying the internet and mass interpersonal communication was 'played out' as of 2005 is utter horseshit. Besides, how seriously should we take a source which damns radio, television, the film cinema, the telephone, and the internet, over 150 years when humanity had none of these beforehand? Should we go back to pre-1870 times, when being illiterate was commonplace instead of being notably unusual? I'm not sure how info/comms was somehow better then. Picking out 1995-2005 as being 'the only good decade for comms' is ludicrous.

It's also possible for inequality to increase, yet have the lower bound also increase. Yes, income disparity has increased, but life quality is not measured only in dollars. Try being gay in the '70s for a clear example. And it's not like homeless people are a new thing this century - they were around back then as well.

Re: Millennials 'set to earn less than Generation X'

#160
post #67

When boomers wanted cars, we subsidized cars. When they wanted education, we subsidized education. When they wanted gas, we subsidized gas. When they wanted suburbs, we subsidized suburbs. When they wanted to take a loan out of their retirement, we paid for it out of ours. When they wanted to eat themselves into oblivion, we paid for their health care. Now that they are sated, millenials want the same...but the boome…

That broad generalization doesn't fly with my observations. There are plenty of wealthy (or at least high income) millenials and plenty of poorer baby boomers.

Boomers have done quite well considering.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/mar/15/babyboomers...

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