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Tesla confirms “Autopilot” crash in Montana

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Re: Tesla confirms “Autopilot” crash in Montana

#211

With three accidents on "autopilot" in a short period, the defects in Tesla's design are becoming clear. 1. Tesla's "hands on wheel" enforcement is much weaker than their competitors. BMW, Volvo, and Mercedes have similar systems, but after a few seconds of hands-off-wheel, the vehicle will start to slow. Tesla allows minutes of hands-off time; one customer reports driving 50 miles without touching the wheel. Tesla i…

> In comparison, when a Google self-driving car bumped a bus at 2mph, Google admitted fault, took the blame, and Urmson gave a talk at SXSW showing the data from the sensors and discussing how the self-driving car misjudged the likely behavior of the bus. This is what we should be trumpeting. Responsibility, honesty, and transparency. Google's self driving car project reports [1] should be the standard. They're publi…

[deleted]

Re: Tesla confirms “Autopilot” crash in Montana

#212
post #86

I don't understand why Tesla is allowed to release a safety critical system on to the roads when it requires buyers to acknowledge its not-finishedness. They're putting beta systems into an uncontrolled environment. No driver in the nearby lanes has been given that choice.

"No driver in the nearby lanes has been given that choice."

Exactly!

Re: Tesla confirms “Autopilot” crash in Montana

#213
post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Drivers who have a license that indicates that they will take responsibility The fact that customers are licensed does not mean the seller is free from any and all regulation. Gun owners are licensed, and guns are required to have safety switches. Cars have a long history of being regulated [1] Basically, anything that can contribute to deaths is going to monitored closely by consumer protection bureaus, and will p…

I didn't mean to imply otherwise. Tesla probably could do a much better job informing it's customers what they are getting into, because they certainly aren't in a position to figure it out themselves. And they definitely can make their software better. What I'm saying is, if your car injures someone while you sit in the driver seat, and you could have easily taken an easily foreseeable action to prevent it, then you…

> What I'm saying is, if your car injures someone while you sit in the driver seat, and you could have easily taken an easily foreseeable action to prevent it, then you are at least partially responsible.

Oh absolutely. No question there for me at this time.

There may yet be some class action or something that reveals some unjust action by the driver-assist companies. I agree that right now, all other things being perfect, if a driver of one of these cars is in an accident, then some person is responsible.

Re: Tesla confirms “Autopilot” crash in Montana

#214
post #194
post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Such a value system would be a nightmarish thing so I hope that it doesn't exist yet. Just imagine your car calculating that it should let you die in order to save a group of school children... except that the school children were in fact a bunch of sheep that the system mis-identified. The danger of AI isn't in paperclip optimizers (at least for now), it's in humans over-relying on machine learning systems.

I think such a value system is fine in as much as it preserves the safety of the driver. I'd like my car to make value judgements about what's safer - braking and colliding with an object or swerving to avoid it. I'd rather it brakes and collides with a child than swerve into oncoming traffic, but I'd rather it swerved into oncoming traffic to avoid a truck that would otherwise T-bone me. As long as the system only a…

http://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/self-driving-car-ethics

Re: Tesla confirms “Autopilot” crash in Montana

#215

Tesla needs (or is going to be forced) to issue a recall soon. Putting "beta" technology in a car isn't OK when it puts drivers and others on the road in danger. This is especially problematic because people have a preconceived notion of what "auto pilot" means and just because Tesla says it's not ready for prime time so therefore you should "keep your hands on the wheel" doesn't make it OK to put into production.

I thought the entire autopilot could be replaced with an over-the-air software update?

See the comments above, if the sensor suite is insufficient, over-the-air software updates won't help.

Re: Tesla confirms “Autopilot” crash in Montana

#216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In comparison, when a Google self-driving car bumped a bus at 2mph, Google admitted fault, took the blame, and Urmson gave a talk at SXSW showing the data from the sensors and discussing how the self-driving car misjudged the likely behavior of the bus. This is what we should be trumpeting. Responsibility, honesty, and transparency. Google's self driving car project reports [1] should be the standard. They're publi…

Musk used to be calmer and more open before. Now he seems bratty. Maybe stress or overconfidence.

I don't envy his position, or any other CEO or leader of a large group. It's a huge responsibility. You can face jail time for not sharing information. Usually only the most egregious violators see a cell, but it's still a scary prospect if you somehow got caught up in some other executive's scheme. At the end of the day, the CEO signs everything.

Edit: I see the downvote. Am I wrong? Is being a CEO all rainbows and sunshine? Maybe I got some detail wrong. Feel free to correct me.

Re: Tesla confirms “Autopilot” crash in Montana

#217

With three accidents on "autopilot" in a short period, the defects in Tesla's design are becoming clear. 1. Tesla's "hands on wheel" enforcement is much weaker than their competitors. BMW, Volvo, and Mercedes have similar systems, but after a few seconds of hands-off-wheel, the vehicle will start to slow. Tesla allows minutes of hands-off time; one customer reports driving 50 miles without touching the wheel. Tesla i…

"Tesla's sensor suite is inadequate." To me this seems to limit what is possible by software updates. Does that mean that existing Tesla owners will never get 'real' autopilot capabilities by software upgrades, although I assume most expect to get them?

I think Tesla should start some upgrade program for self driving features. One thing that holds me back from buying one of the current cars is that they could get obsolete quickly if the next version has better self driving sensors.

Re: Tesla confirms “Autopilot” crash in Montana

#218
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's 90 million miles among all cars. I'd wager that if you compare it with cars at Tesla price point -- mostly luxury cars -- Tesla would look pretty bad.

Why do you think the accident rate is lower among luxury cars as compared to more common vehicles? I would suspect the opposite. My hypothesis is that the people who seek out and buy cars that go 0 to 60 in 3.2 seconds probably drive faster and more aggressively than average. They therefore are more likely to have an accident.

Most of them have a lot of safety features, like automatically braking if needed.

Re: Tesla confirms “Autopilot” crash in Montana

#219
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's 90 million miles among all cars. I'd wager that if you compare it with cars at Tesla price point -- mostly luxury cars -- Tesla would look pretty bad.

Why do you think the accident rate is lower among luxury cars as compared to more common vehicles? I would suspect the opposite. My hypothesis is that the people who seek out and buy cars that go 0 to 60 in 3.2 seconds probably drive faster and more aggressively than average. They therefore are more likely to have an accident.

Several reasons, but again, it is just guessing that cannot replace actual data. That doesn't mean we should take the only data point available (90 million miles) and declare it settled.

Your point about people seeking to drive faster is a valid one.

The counterpoint is there are people who cannot afford luxury cars but also want to drive faster -- they'll end up buying cheaper cars that can drive fast within their price range. Those are likely to be more fatal than the average luxury car.

1) Hypothesis on car age. An accident on a 2002 non-luxury car model is supposedly more likely to be fatal than an accident with your average new car.

This matters because Teslas with autopilot are relatively new compared to overall car population.

2) Hypothesis that low cost cars are more fatal than an average luxury cars.

3) Demographic hypothesis. Because of price point, the buyer demographic of newer luxury cars will be different than the overall demographic. Age group (e.g. teenagers vs. young adults vs. older adults), education level, profession.

Re: Tesla confirms “Autopilot” crash in Montana

#220

With three accidents on "autopilot" in a short period, the defects in Tesla's design are becoming clear. 1. Tesla's "hands on wheel" enforcement is much weaker than their competitors. BMW, Volvo, and Mercedes have similar systems, but after a few seconds of hands-off-wheel, the vehicle will start to slow. Tesla allows minutes of hands-off time; one customer reports driving 50 miles without touching the wheel. Tesla i…

"Tesla's sensor suite is inadequate." To me this seems to limit what is possible by software updates. Does that mean that existing Tesla owners will never get 'real' autopilot capabilities by software upgrades, although I assume most expect to get them?

I think that was pretty clear before that the sensors do not cover that.

Maybe autonomous highway driving in good conditions will be possible with these sensors. (With the last days information, even that seems unlikely.)

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