Large Multinationals like Unilever, even for incremental decisions - like changing the type of light bulb, takes years to execute. This is why a large change in their business is so difficult and you need a very good CEO ( ask Marissa Mayer ) The decision UK made to leave the EU is akin for Unilever to switch from selling shampoos to selling software - and we are not talking about a multinational with 100,000 employe…
I talked to a senior diplomat recently. He said that when talking to diplomats from China, Russia, the US in the beginning of his career some 30 years ago, nobody asked about the EU opinion on issues. In the last 10 years, however, he never heard "what does Britain or France or Germany think about XYZ" but only "What does the EU think". What some leavers don't realise is that the entire world had gotten used to deali…
UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears
271–280 of 339 posts
Re: UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears
#272Earlier quoted context omitted.
So politicians will stop asking "What does the EU think" and go back to asking "What do Germany, France, and the UK think, and are they in agreement"? The distinction is less important than you think, because the second question gets at the heart of the issue and naturally follows the first. Unlike the US, The EU does not have a strong executive/legislative/judicial (and perhaps more-importantly, a shared language/na…
I think it's terribly naive to think they'll stop to ask what the EU thinks. They'll keep asking that, and if the UK gets mentioned it will be as an afterthought. > Also, the UK is still the 5th largest economy in the world by GDP ($2.8T). But relatively speaking, it's position is weakening year by year, as it's seeing anaemic growth compared to a large number of other economies. More importantly, we're seeing the ri…
You misunderstand my point. Even if, on the surface, they continue to ask what the "EU" thinks, they'll actually be asking (as they always have) what Merkel, Hollande, and (now) Theresa May think. Greece, Italy, Portugal, etc. don't have a say because they need to keep their heads down and continue to service their debt to the big 3 EU leaders, who clearly don't agree on much, even at the global level (war, trade agreements, etc).
Have you been to Africa? Have you seen the level of infrastructure (education, access to electricity and clean water) relative to violence (civil wars), corruption, and pillaging of resources (western countries, China) that continues to take place across even the most developed African nations?
The UK may not even exit the EU at the end of the day [1]. It's much too early to make such dire predictions for the future of UK growth. I prefer the simple or "naive" view that things will not change much.
[1] A referendum in the UK is not binding on the government of the day; it is advisory. The UK has a government with a slender majority (implying it will be tricky to ram things through parliament), it is looking for a new prime minister (and, possibly, a new leader of the opposition), the referendum result was close (the country is split) and no one seems certain who has the power to get the ball rolling by triggering the “infamous” Article 50.
Re: UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears
#273Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why would anyone in the EU want to negotiate or do anything other than stall until the UK is under WTO rules? Wouldn't they want the UK in as weak a position as possible?
No. This is the zero-sum mentality that has been causing the EU such serious economic problems. Trade creates wealth and wealth is not zero sum. Trade deals get signed because all parties involved believe it will be to their mutual benefit. Why would you want to sign a trade deal with a weak country? It is self-defeating: you would get little out of it. Parts of the EU establishment seem locked in a mindset that they…
But the rest of your comment seems to say "Yes."
> Trade deals get signed because all parties involved believe it will be to their mutual benefit.
I think that's optimistic. Deals get signed fundamentally because each side individually benefits. A better deal will see the weaker partner able to grow as a result, but that's not necessary for it to be worthwhile to the stronger partner.
> Why would you want to sign a trade deal with a weak country? It is self-defeating: you would get little out of it.
There's always a stronger and a weaker player at the table. It might take some fiddling to work out which is which, and it's certainly not limited to a single axis, but deals still happen.
> abuse regulatory passporting
I don't see that as abuse, that's just playing the game with the pieces that are on the board. From France's point of view, given the choice between a quick zero-sum win where they gain the limited number of banks available and a long-term mutual win where everyone grows, why not do both?
Re: UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears
#274This sounds more like political retaliatory BS than actual financial concerns. End the project when you lose funding, not in anticipation of losing funding at some point in the future.
European research projects I know about get their expenses reimbursed after the fact. For example, you buy some (potentially very) expensive equipment, claim the expenses in the yearly financial report and (if the Commission accepts your claims after review) receive money to your institution's account. That can be a year and a half after you had to pay for your equipment and in the mean time your research institute,…
Re: UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears
#275Earlier quoted context omitted.
If they do give a deal to the UK wouldn't that trigger more exits? If countries see they can leave the EU and still get a trade deal they'd be more likely to leave than if they saw the UK get shafted (so to speak).
Yes, that's why the EU is doomed and will be gone within a decade no matter what they do now. It is a fundamentally unattractive entity. The people who run it have never even tried to combat rising anti-EU feeling across the continent, as they believe the EU is inevitable and unstoppable, so why bother trying to make it more popular. Now it's probably too late: they've become so gripped by groupthink they can't refor…
I thought discussion here was under the assumption that the UK wants to participate in exactly those research projects...
> In the UK it was migration policy.
It was the UK governments migration policy.
Re: UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears
#276Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think the only "next steps" for the EU is a frantic attempt to not crumble. The National Front and Alternative for Germany are gaining fast.
The latest polls have shown dramatic drops in anti-EU sentiments after the Brexit poll. If those numbers hold up, on the contrary Brexit may lead to a gear-shift towards more rapid integration of the rest of the EU.
So, I for one see the Brexit (the process, not the outcome) as positive to European democracy. The process will (and should) be long and hard to reach a fair outcome to both Britain and EU and voters will learn from this.
The EU is messy by design, despite its obvious democratic-deficits which needs to be tackled by those who believe in european integration. I'd rather have neighbours settle their issues and common goals in a messy, frustrating forum then in the good-old battle-field (military or economic).
Re: UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears
#277Earlier quoted context omitted.
If they do give a deal to the UK wouldn't that trigger more exits? If countries see they can leave the EU and still get a trade deal they'd be more likely to leave than if they saw the UK get shafted (so to speak).
Yes, that's why the EU is doomed and will be gone within a decade no matter what they do now. It is a fundamentally unattractive entity. The people who run it have never even tried to combat rising anti-EU feeling across the continent, as they believe the EU is inevitable and unstoppable, so why bother trying to make it more popular. Now it's probably too late: they've become so gripped by groupthink they can't refor…
Serious question: would that make you happy? Would you maybe prefer a replacement for the EU?
Re: UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears
#278Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Leave said they would continue to fund science, farms, Wales and Cornwall and match the EU funding. How can they fund all that stuff when they said they would spend all that money on the NHS? http://imgur.com/indvx6a "Let's give our NHS the £350 million the EU takes every week" - that's not "some of" or "part of", that's "all of".
The leave campaign was made up of a lot of random people who all had different ideas. You pick one who has an idea that you agree with and vote for that person. Not everyone in the leave campaign agreed with "Let's give our NHS the £350 million the EU takes every week" .... the people who DID don't want to fund science with that money. I assume that have another idea for where that money will come from.
Re: UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears
#279Earlier quoted context omitted.
EU research funding is also a huge incentive for collaborative research between research groups in various European countries, pooling talents from all over Europe. Research needs international collaboration, and UK funding only would make it more difficult.
In my experience, EU funding is often used to force research groups across Europe to 'collaborate'. Well at least on paper, since it's so much easier or even required to get funding if you propose 'pooling talent' and other buzz terms. Just as a sanity check: there is no reason (other than your funding agency stopping you) for researches with their own funding to collaborate across borders where and when they see fit…
Here in Germany we have locally funded research, research on the state level, research on the Bundesrepublik level, international research cooperations and EU research. All at the same time. No one forces scientists to 'collaborate'.
> there is no reason (other than your funding agency stopping you) for researches with their own funding to collaborate across borders where and when they see fit.
Countries in Europe want to see it coordinated and research pooled. Every government does that on a local level for its research budgets. The EU does that on a larger scale. Switzerland is a tiny country. CERN would not exist without outside money and collaborative research.
Re: UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears
#280Earlier quoted context omitted.
Since the UK and France are permanent U.N. security council members, that sounds rather hyperbolic.
The next steps will actually be France will give up its seat and the EU will take it up. The UK was also going to give it up (alongside its WTO seat) which was what drove Cameron's 'ever closer union' clause.