UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears • Hacker News Board

Re: UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears

#251

Post by _delirium » Tue, Jul 12, 2016, 4:36 PM UTC

dekhn wrote: post #250

_delirium wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As far as I understand it, nobody is immediately removing UK investigators from existing, already awarded projects. Those are going on as planned (I'm part of one myself). I'm not sure it would even be possible to do so under the research programme's rules. What's happening is that people who are just now putting together new groups of investigators in order to send an application into the next funding call are think…

I am still having trouble seeing, for certain and without ambiguity, that Brext itself implies that UK researchers can't be listed on future projects. is that a straight-line, 100% implication? Everything I've read about Brexit suggests that nobody can predict the specifics about what will happen, when it will happen, or how much will actually happen.

You're correct, basically nobody knows what will happen. That's why many people don't want a UK partner in current applications (or at least prefer a different partner if a suitable one can be found), because they don't want this risk that, in 2 or 3 years, the UK partner might have to withdraw, if the UK leaves the EU research programmes. They might not have to withdraw, too, but nobody knows for sure, so it's a risk. Hopefully by next funding round the UK's intentions/timeline will be clearer, so people will either unambiguously know that the UK will stay in the EU research programme long-term, or that it won't.

Re: UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears

#252

Post by wildmusings » Tue, Jul 12, 2016, 4:37 PM UTC

SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #246

wildmusings wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The massive fear mongering campaign by pro-EU forces will blow up in their face when the UK continues to do phenomenally well past the New Year. The people don't like being manipulated.

> when the UK continues to do phenomenally well So, in your view, the UK is doing " phenomenally well" right now? I mean I have read other opinions, including "deep political, social, democratic and economic crisis" and "value of the pound plunges". If the EU is trying to convince the remaining member states that "leaving is terrible, you should remain", then it's absolutely working: http://www.politico.eu/article/su…

They're in better shape than almost all of Europe. Germany being the main exception.

And as for today vs a month ago, what's the evidence for that? I see them in a very strong position. The anti-business Labour Party is doing poorly in the polls, and the Conservatives have quickly coalesced around a new leader. The FTSE100 and FTSE250 are doing fine. There's every reason to believe that both Hillary (judging by her policies over time) and Trump (by explicit statement) are eager to sign a great deal with the UK. The future is bright for Britain.

Re: UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears

#253

Post by dekhn » Tue, Jul 12, 2016, 4:38 PM UTC

_delirium wrote: post #251

dekhn wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am still having trouble seeing, for certain and without ambiguity, that Brext itself implies that UK researchers can't be listed on future projects. is that a straight-line, 100% implication? Everything I've read about Brexit suggests that nobody can predict the specifics about what will happen, when it will happen, or how much will actually happen.

You're correct, basically nobody knows what will happen. That's why many people don't want a UK partner in current applications (or at least prefer a different partner if a suitable one can be found), because they don't want this risk that, in 2 or 3 years, the UK partner might have to withdraw, if the UK leaves the EU research programmes. They might not have to withdraw, too, but nobody knows for sure, so it's a ris…

Thanks for clarifying that this is just risk estimation based on not knowing what the outcome is. There is also a risk in not including UK institutions- they have some mighty fine researchers there, so not including them might lead to a project not being approved (for lack of continental experts in a specific topic) or being unsuccessful (for lack of execution capabilities).

It's trading a well-understood risk for a one that is not well-understood, hence my comment about it being irrational.

Re: UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears

#254

Post by dragonwriter » Tue, Jul 12, 2016, 4:40 PM UTC

wildmusings wrote: post #242

dragonwriter wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The massive fear mongering campaign by pro-EU forces will blow up in their face when the UK continues to do phenomenally well past the New Year. How? Seems to me most of the predicted bad consequences were tied to leaving the EU, which (barring some mutual agreement with the EU on an alternate timetable) happens two years after Article 50 is invoked, which it has not yet been. Why would the UK continuing to do well…

Do you think the restructuring will happen overnight? Don't you think markets take into account expected future outcomes? The Brexit crash was the beginning. The media told everyone to panic, so everyone sold. Then people realized how irrational that was. Personally, I'm hoping for more liberal-media driven sell offs. They're great opportunities to invest. The future of the British economy is strong: an educated popu…

> Do you think the restructuring will happen overnight?

No, so actual consequences of leaving will take significant time to be clear after the exit, not be immediately apparent the day Britain finally leaves the EU.

(Which rather reinforces the point that they won't be clear long before Britain leaves the EU.)

> Don't you think markets take into account expected future outcomes?

Yes, but that's just another set of predictions, not actual counterevidence to any conflicting set of predictions.

Re: UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears

#255

Post by SideburnsOfDoom » Tue, Jul 12, 2016, 4:42 PM UTC

wildmusings wrote: post #252

SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> when the UK continues to do phenomenally well So, in your view, the UK is doing " phenomenally well" right now? I mean I have read other opinions, including "deep political, social, democratic and economic crisis" and "value of the pound plunges". If the EU is trying to convince the remaining member states that "leaving is terrible, you should remain", then it's absolutely working: http://www.politico.eu/article/su…

They're in better shape than almost all of Europe. Germany being the main exception. And as for today vs a month ago, what's the evidence for that? I see them in a very strong position. The anti-business Labour Party is doing poorly in the polls, and the Conservatives have quickly coalesced around a new leader. The FTSE100 and FTSE250 are doing fine. There's every reason to believe that both Hillary (judging by her p…

> They're in better shape than almost all of Europe.

But not in very good shape at all compared to say, the UK a month ago.

Re: UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears

#256

Post by sremani » Tue, Jul 12, 2016, 4:45 PM UTC

vidarh wrote: post #222

roymurdock wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So politicians will stop asking "What does the EU think" and go back to asking "What do Germany, France, and the UK think, and are they in agreement"? The distinction is less important than you think, because the second question gets at the heart of the issue and naturally follows the first. Unlike the US, The EU does not have a strong executive/legislative/judicial (and perhaps more-importantly, a shared language/na…

I think it's terribly naive to think they'll stop to ask what the EU thinks. They'll keep asking that, and if the UK gets mentioned it will be as an afterthought. > Also, the UK is still the 5th largest economy in the world by GDP ($2.8T). But relatively speaking, it's position is weakening year by year, as it's seeing anaemic growth compared to a large number of other economies. More importantly, we're seeing the ri…

The real question is, do Eurocrats know what the EU thinks ? My honest guess is, No. We know what Germany thinks, France thinks and Italy thinks. The Supra-state was an interesting exercise, an experiment of sorts that demonstrated the contradictions within Europe are too wide.

EU will die its slow death, Brexit is not the cause, its the catalyst.

Re: UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears

#257

Post by sievebrain » Tue, Jul 12, 2016, 4:46 PM UTC

regularfry wrote: post #243

sievebrain wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The UK can negotiate deals before exit, just under EU law it can't sign them. However, why obey EU rules when you're about to leave? The only reason to do this would be to leave on good terms. But the EU sees Brexit as a betrayal that must be punished severely to try and scare other countries into not leaving. There are no "good terms" by their choice, not the UK's. So the UK should start immediately violating whatev…

Why would anyone in the EU want to negotiate or do anything other than stall until the UK is under WTO rules? Wouldn't they want the UK in as weak a position as possible?

No. This is the zero-sum mentality that has been causing the EU such serious economic problems.

Trade creates wealth and wealth is not zero sum. Trade deals get signed because all parties involved believe it will be to their mutual benefit. Why would you want to sign a trade deal with a weak country? It is self-defeating: you would get little out of it.

Parts of the EU establishment seem locked in a mindset that they can only grow by taking things away from others. I saw a lot of discussion post-Brexit by countries that want to abuse regulatory passporting to try and force banks and other high-earning firms into other EU countries, but no discussion at all about making those countries naturally more attractive. It's the equivalent of saying "We will grow our economy by forcing Facebook to relocate its HQ from Silicon Valley to France by passing a regulation saying they must do so". Even if you brought overwhelming political and economic power to bear and somehow forced the Zuck to move to Paris, it'd just be a terrible idea for all sorts of long term reasons.

Re: UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears

#258

Post by Wintamute » Tue, Jul 12, 2016, 4:56 PM UTC

wrong_variable wrote: post #19

Large Multinationals like Unilever, even for incremental decisions - like changing the type of light bulb, takes years to execute. This is why a large change in their business is so difficult and you need a very good CEO ( ask Marissa Mayer ) The decision UK made to leave the EU is akin for Unilever to switch from selling shampoos to selling software - and we are not talking about a multinational with 100,000 employe…

Europe and Antarctica are the only two continents on Earth to see no net positive growth to their economies in the last few decades. I don't think it's too much of a stretch to put such economic under-performance down to at least in part the frankly outdated 70s era customs union that the EU is based on.

China recently rated the UK as the number one soft power in the world [1] ... rather than just judging countries on the size of their economy, "soft power" is a measure of a countries ability to achieve its aims through diplomacy and influence. The UK has links of language, culture, trade and kinship across the globe dating back to the time of Empire.

Unshackled from the failing trade block of the EU I don't see any reason why the UK couldn't carve out a very acceptable niche for itself operating again as an independent sovereign nation.

This wasn't a corporate decision just based on raw economic numbers. This was a decision based on principle rather than pragmatism. It's democracy in action, and sometimes it's messy.

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21657655-oxbridge-one-...

Re: UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears

#259

Post by vidarh » Tue, Jul 12, 2016, 4:57 PM UTC

sievebrain wrote: post #164

wrong_variable wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you provide some examples of countries striking better trade deals. Its also two things negotiators and knowing your strengths. The world's best negotiators wont be able help you very much if you do not have much to offer. Also I am skeptical of your assertion that anyone could write trade deals. It requires a very deep understanding of economics, international finance, geopolitics and a bunch of other topics -…

Chile is a good example. More deals, better (more often including services) and earlier. Like I said, I've read trade deals. One I actually read almost from start to finish (the recent WTO deal on upgrading customs rules, I forgot the specific name). If Chile can sign trade deals with much bigger economic powers, much more quickly than the EU can, I see no reason why the UK would be unable to. Can you justify your as…

Signing deals fast is easy. Signing deals that cover everything is easy. It's useless to talk about this without analysing what actual benefits they get out of them.

Re: UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears

#260

Post by Symbiote » Tue, Jul 12, 2016, 4:59 PM UTC

dekhn wrote: post #155

wnkrshm wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The proposals for the big EU calls like Horizon 2020 contain detailed work packages and plans for how the research effort is going to be orchestrated to be successful. To my knowledge, the quality of this planning is a decisive factor in the acceptance of a proposal. If a research partner drops out halfway through the project, the whole effort may fall apart - and with research institutions and industrial partners bo…

I'm having trouble seeing why UK partners here are specifically going to drop out of a funded research project simply because Brexit.

They may struggle to recruit staff needed for the positions, or even lose existing staff¹. For

Successful projects often lead to future projects, so people thinking of projects in a few years time might not want to start collaboration in the UK, at least if there's an alternative elsewhere in the EU.

¹ For example, the UK lost me — after the 2014 European Parliament elections in the UK, where UKIP won most votes, I started looking for a job elsewhere.