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Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

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Re: Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

#91

Post by lordnacho »

dragonwriter wrote: post #69
lordnacho wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Thse statements are seemingly facts to you, but personally I am not sure how either could become reality. No, not at all. Things could turn out very differently, it's true. But I lean towards thinking that the countries involved will want to continue trading with each other and basically not rock the economic boat too much.

Many of the countries that remain in and strongly support the EU are likely to, in the immediate term, not give excellent trade terms to Britain to keep the perceived cost of leaving high to avoid encouraging leave movements in a couple of other members.

And then it's a poker game. How much are they willing to hurt their already lethargic economies to punish the UK? I reckon if all countries has a referendum, a fair few would vote to leave as well. It can't sit that well with people to punish the UK for leaving when there's a sizeable number of French, Dutch, etc, who want to leave as well.

Re: Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

#92

Post by wolfwyrd »

crdoconnor wrote: post #82
nikcub wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As if people from Sunderland or rural Wales were concerned about the cost of holidaying the Riviera or taking a hit on their non-existent stock portfolios. Economic downturns and recessions disproportionately affect the poor[0] and disadvantaged[1]. [0] http://www.russellsage.org/research/special-initiatives/grea... [1] https://www.aclu.org/sites/default/files/field_document/disc...

A) The parts of England that voted to exit were already in recession and nobody noticed. B) Actually they'll stand to do better because: * There will be less competition for jobs, meaning a rise in wages. * Westminster is more likely to direct funding their way in order to avoid another repeat of Thursday. * The low pound will be good for export industries.

They'll still get hit hardest. Weak pound means more expensive imports. UK imports ~40% of it's food [1]. That food will now cost more to import raising prices at the supermarkets. Poorer people spend a larger %'age of their income on essentials like food.

The weak pound means importing oil (priced in USD) will be more expensive. This will affect Petrol prices (we're already seeing a 2-3p rise at the pumps). Poorer people spend a larger %'age of their income on essentials like fuel.

There are a number of knock-on effects from the weak pound. Yes it's good for exports but overall it's going to be a rough couple of years for the already disadvantaged.

Speaking to your point on competition as well - if the UK wishes to join the EU free market they will most likely need to accept freedom of movement. No treaty has ever been agreed with any country without this caveat (that covers the Swiss, Norway etc). It's possible that the UK may be an exception but it's unlikely.

[1] http://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/issue/uk.html

Re: Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

#93

Post by Brakenshire »

tomp wrote: post #88
danmaz74 wrote: post #4

> Boris Johnson said that British people would continue to be able to live, work and study in the EU, while at the same time the UK would be able to introduce a points-based system to control migration. I can hardly understand how can so many people believe such an obvious liar.

Who would you believe then? Cameron who said that WW3 would start and Russia would invade Europe?!

Cameron did not say that. He said "Can we be so sure peace and stability on our continent are assured beyond any shadow of doubt? Is that a risk worth taking?" which is absolutely valid. It is forty years since there was a fascist government in Spain, 30 years since half of Europe was run by authoritarian communist regimes, 20 years since there was genocide in Kosovo, and a war in Ukraine is still ongoing. The EU has been absolutely vital in stabilizing the continent over that timescale. Croatia and Serbia were involved in a civil war where 20,000 people died within our lifetimes, and Serbia will probably join Croatia as a member of the EU within the next decade, with open borders between he countries and guaranteed rights for minority groups. Cameron's comments were absolutely reasonable.

Re: Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

#94

Post by rwhitman »

throwaway987611 wrote: post #27
airesQ wrote: post #6

Leave says that the EU in undemocratic. But the EU is a democracy. It is certainly much more democratic than the British first-past-the-post and the house of Lords. Saying that the EU in undemocratic is just a meme. Then there is the question about the UK contributions. The UK does get its money worth, by the profit made trading in one of the biggest markets in the world (and with the countries that have trade deals…

> The UK needs the EU more than the EU needs the UK. I beg to differ. The Eurocrats in Brussels who are unelected. Wanted Britian out immediately after the result. Merkel, on the other hand. Had the Car manufacturers on the phone screaming at her about the result. For them, the UK is 25% of their export market. I am sure other German manufacturers are not too happy with the result either. The UK is simply in a better…

Except that no one will ever trust investing in trade with Britain again after this. "British interests come first", in Britain. Brexit erased what is now $2.8 trillion from the global markets, devalued what was thought to be a strong safe currency, losing UK territories and has no leadership to speak of taking any sort of accountability for this disaster.

To the rest of the world it's shocking and infuriating to witness. You see a nation that will be more competitive, we see a nation in freefall collapse. Even here in the USA, we are not on board with this. Our banks are pulling out of London as we speak.

No banks, no pound, no stability.. no leverage. To the rest of the world from now on, British interests come last.

Re: Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

#95

Post by crdoconnor »

wolfwyrd wrote: post #92
crdoconnor wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A) The parts of England that voted to exit were already in recession and nobody noticed. B) Actually they'll stand to do better because: * There will be less competition for jobs, meaning a rise in wages. * Westminster is more likely to direct funding their way in order to avoid another repeat of Thursday. * The low pound will be good for export industries.

They'll still get hit hardest. Weak pound means more expensive imports. UK imports ~40% of it's food [1]. That food will now cost more to import raising prices at the supermarkets. Poorer people spend a larger %'age of their income on essentials like food. The weak pound means importing oil (priced in USD) will be more expensive. This will affect Petrol prices (we're already seeing a 2-3p rise at the pumps). Poorer p…

>They'll still get hit hardest. Weak pound means more expensive imports. UK imports ~40% of it's food

I can think of one rule which will get revoked in that case: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Set-aside

Much like Russia (which suffered a much worse currency slump and also imports a lot of food), the UK will likely roll with it and engage in import substitution.

>Speaking to your point on competition as well - if the UK wishes to join the EU free market they will most likely need to accept freedom of movement.

That's clearly the deal the remainers wanted to take but if I recall correctly they lost.

At the low end I'm pretty sure the wage rises coming from fewer Poles, etc. will at least match - and possibly outstrip inflation caused by newly instituted 2-4% tariffs.

Re: Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

#96

Post by drcongo »

crdoconnor wrote: post #95
wolfwyrd wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They'll still get hit hardest. Weak pound means more expensive imports. UK imports ~40% of it's food [1]. That food will now cost more to import raising prices at the supermarkets. Poorer people spend a larger %'age of their income on essentials like food. The weak pound means importing oil (priced in USD) will be more expensive. This will affect Petrol prices (we're already seeing a 2-3p rise at the pumps). Poorer p…

>They'll still get hit hardest. Weak pound means more expensive imports. UK imports ~40% of it's food I can think of one rule which will get revoked in that case: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Set-aside Much like Russia (which suffered a much worse currency slump and also imports a lot of food), the UK will likely roll with it and engage in import substitution. >Speaking to your point on competition as well - if the…

Have you read the linked article? The leave campaigners are now furiously back-pedalling on their claims about reduced immigration. I'm intrigued as to why you think there'll be "fewer Poles etc.".

Where are these extra jobs going to come from with a rock bottom pound and markets in freefall? Do you believe this was a vote about repatriation or something?

Re: Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

#97

Post by crdoconnor »

drcongo wrote: post #96
crdoconnor wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>They'll still get hit hardest. Weak pound means more expensive imports. UK imports ~40% of it's food I can think of one rule which will get revoked in that case: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Set-aside Much like Russia (which suffered a much worse currency slump and also imports a lot of food), the UK will likely roll with it and engage in import substitution. >Speaking to your point on competition as well - if the…

Have you read the linked article? The leave campaigners are now furiously back-pedalling on their claims about reduced immigration. I'm intrigued as to why you think there'll be "fewer Poles etc.". Where are these extra jobs going to come from with a rock bottom pound and markets in freefall? Do you believe this was a vote about repatriation or something?

I didn't read it that way. Boris trying to characterize the campaign as being pro-control rather than anti-immigration seems to be an attempt to extend an olive branch to the remainers rather than an attempt to do a 180 on immigration.

He is about to enter a leadership contest and is hoping for votes from tory members of the remain campaign.

He might do a 180 on immigration but I wouldn't say this is evidence of it, and he likely knows he'll pay a heavy price come next elections if he does (assuming he wins leadership).

The other guy who actually is backpedaling is just an MEP whom I'm pretty sure nobody gives a fuck about.

Re: Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

#98

Post by dingaling »

abpavel wrote: post #17

That mandate of the EU is, and always was, to prevent WW3. That is its raison d'être, and all decisions branch out from not wanting to repeat past mistakes, and end up like Serbia/Croatia in 1996. You can point out Swiss all you want, but Switzerland is as special is the City of London (not London city).

> That mandate of the EU is, and always was, to prevent WW3.

That's an interesting generational difference-of-view.

Growing up in the Cold War, to us it was NATO that kept the peace both within the western hemisphere and within Europe. Barring a couple of tantrums it even kept Turkey and Greece from going to war!

Best of all it didn't require much sacrifice of sovereignity other than perhaps bases for US forces and land for the pan-European fuel pipelines, plus keeping defence spending above the agreed thresholds.

The EEC was barely mentioned in terms of international relations and we only studied it in school in the context of trade and agricultural policy. But those who grew-up in the post-Maastricht Treaty period seem to have a wholly different view of what the EU is and wants to be, and a very much poorer view of NATO.

And I think that is reflected by the results of the UK referendum; to many of the Cold War generation the EU is an usurper, a bloated amorphous creature of indistinct purpose that evolved without their consent and seems to insert its tentacles into every aspect of their lives. Why does it exist, why is it needed and why can't it just focus on intra-European trade like it used to? Until those questions are answered there will always be people sceptical of the EU.

Re: Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

#99

Post by [deleted] »

Brakenshire wrote: post #22

People are critical of the flagrant dishonesty of the Leave campaign, the way that all concerns were dismissed with the 'Project Fear' or 'the British public has had enough of experts' thought terminating cliches, and now the refusal to admit that the public have been lied to, and the new tendency to blame Remain voters and the EU for 'talking down the economy', or for requiring now what everyone knew would be the ca…

[deleted]

Re: Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?

#100

Post by dang »

Brakenshire wrote: post #22

People are critical of the flagrant dishonesty of the Leave campaign, the way that all concerns were dismissed with the 'Project Fear' or 'the British public has had enough of experts' thought terminating cliches, and now the refusal to admit that the public have been lied to, and the new tendency to blame Remain voters and the EU for 'talking down the economy', or for requiring now what everyone knew would be the ca…

You responded to a thoughtful, reflective comment with an angry partisan one. That's the wrong direction in which to take an HN discussion. Please re-read lordnacho's comment and learn from it—I don't mean about UK politics, of course, but about how discourse is supposed to work on this site.

We detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11992985 and marked it off-topic.

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