Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU? • Hacker News Board

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#171

Post by Nursie » Mon, Jun 27, 2016, 12:00 PM UTC

hjnilsson wrote: post #160

pi-err wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Oh, by the way, "The referendum was non-binding, it's advisory". True - though the gov white paper mentioned that it was, in effect, binding because ignoring its result would irreversibly damage representative democracy. Even if the UK were somehow to backtrack: they broke any faith and goodwill on EU side (not the entire EU but key members). Politically, the Tories have to rally Brexit - or they will get killed by…

The government can just ignore the vote after reelection. If they say "vote for us an we'll stay in the EU" and win. That's the way it'll be. In Sweden, several national referendums have been ignored by the government (shutting down nuclear power, switching to right hand traffic, new pension system). It has had no negative effect on either parties or politicians really. People are only angry as long as it stays in th…

"Vote for us an we'll give you the voice everyone else ignored" is going to make a compelling cry though, you have to admit.

Refusing to leave at this point will make things worse, not better.

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#172

Post by Nursie » Mon, Jun 27, 2016, 12:01 PM UTC

5h wrote: post #157

_Understated_ wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am utterly disgusted and bloody sick of being portrayed as a racist, xenophobic bigot because I wanted to take back democratic control of my country. Race issues had nothing to do with my decision to leave. How dare you paint me in that light when you know absolutely nothing about me or my motives for wanting to remove my country from the clutches of an undemocratic state. Your narrow-mindedness is part of the reas…

Your parent poster said "that xenophobia/racism is now an "every day" thing." People with pre-existing xenophobic/racist have found vindication & legitimisation with the referendum result. Many papers today are carrying stories of attacks along these lines, I'm sure the rest will in the following days also. "It's over. We are out. Accept it or feel free to move to a European country... I don't mind." The back-pedalli…

The intent of the parent post was clear, it was calling my thinking racist and xenophobic.

At the very least this is unhelpful, and devalues the impact of such words.

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#173

Post by Gupie » Mon, Jun 27, 2016, 12:03 PM UTC

arethuza wrote: post #152

Nursie wrote: post #21

There's a lot of clutching at straws going on at the moment. People coming out with political or legal theories, trying to interpret David Cameron's failure to immediately declare leaving under article 50 as kicking the whole issue into the long grass etc etc. This is the latest, like others it's more of an exercise in denial than it is in reality. Many of these things could come to pass, it's true, but each one carr…

"the likes of UKIP to become a seriously large party in the next parliament, not to mention civil unrest in various forms" I think UKIP will sit back and let the next Conservative government fail to deliver on some key Leave promises - I think they'll be targeting the 2020 election on a "the Conservatives didn't deliver on what Leave promised but UKIP will" platform. The next Conservative leader will probably offer F…

"In a 52-48 referendum, this would be unfinished business by a long way." Nigel Farage, 17 May

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/nigel-farage-eu-refere...

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#174

Post by Nursie » Mon, Jun 27, 2016, 12:03 PM UTC

cromulent wrote: post #169

Nursie wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed, to complete outcry, and I believe the post has been stripped of its powers since (though could be wrong). It certainly wouldn't fly 4 decades later.

Completely different to the UK situation though - the GG was acting according to the Australian constitution. UK law is obviously different. The Australian constitution only underwent a tiny change in 1977 that doesn't change the GG's role. I think it would indeed "fly".

Oh I meant in Australia, I don't think another GG intervention would work there, even if the law hadn't been adjusted.

Not sure exactly what might happen here.

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#175

Post by DanBC » Mon, Jun 27, 2016, 12:04 PM UTC

ManlyBread wrote: post #167

dazc wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The UK is one of the most ethnically diverse and tolerant nations on Earth. This is a fact you'll find difficult to argue against.

Hard to believe when stuff like Sharia Zones are a thing.

They aren't a thing.

Some sharia "courts" operate in the UK, as do Beth Din and Ecclesiastical Courts.

They're mostly for mediation and actual courts feel free to ignore them.

They've all been involved in pretty severe human rights abuses. Christian courts moved abusing priests around the country rather than reporting them to the police; Christian courts did little to prevent the sexual, physical and emotional abuse of children by nuns. Beth Din are currently involved in not giving Jewish women "Gets" - a religious divorce that can only be provided by the husband. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/scandal-of-wo...

Sharia Zones, as talked about by US media, don't exist.

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#176

Post by 5h » Mon, Jun 27, 2016, 12:06 PM UTC

Nursie wrote: post #172

5h wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your parent poster said "that xenophobia/racism is now an "every day" thing." People with pre-existing xenophobic/racist have found vindication & legitimisation with the referendum result. Many papers today are carrying stories of attacks along these lines, I'm sure the rest will in the following days also. "It's over. We are out. Accept it or feel free to move to a European country... I don't mind." The back-pedalli…

The intent of the parent post was clear, it was calling my thinking racist and xenophobic. At the very least this is unhelpful, and devalues the impact of such words.

The parent post wasn't replying to you - so I'd argue it wasn't calling your thinking anything whatsoever.

While I'd agree such terms are being carelessly banded about, there's no need to go looking for reasons to be offended here.

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#177

Post by vixen99 » Mon, Jun 27, 2016, 12:08 PM UTC

antouank wrote: post #45

Nursie wrote: post #21

There's a lot of clutching at straws going on at the moment. People coming out with political or legal theories, trying to interpret David Cameron's failure to immediately declare leaving under article 50 as kicking the whole issue into the long grass etc etc. This is the latest, like others it's more of an exercise in denial than it is in reality. Many of these things could come to pass, it's true, but each one carr…

Around 4 million EU nationals that live in the UK, were not eligible to vote, and they are directly affected by his decision, while they pay taxes and they contribute to the economy as much as the ones who could vote ( if not more... ). Also, a significant percentage of those who voted "Leave", around 10% at least, now would certainly change their vote since they saw that "scare tactics" was basically people telling…

It depends on what you understand by citizenship. As non-Brits they don't have a long-term interest in the future of Britain. For instance, we can assume they will likely have family connections elsewhere. They can leave when they like. They are in the UK for what they can get out of it, as of now. That is not meant pejoratively. It is what I or anyone else would do. If we have the freedom to do so, we plot a life trajectory (including where to locate) with respect to our best interests.

I wonder where do you get the 10% figure; how on earth would you know that in the three days since polling? It's difficult to know what to make of folk who given three months of intense EU/Out/In discussion across the land suddenly discover that they didn't think their vote mattered or that they couldn't make up their minds and tossed a coin. They need a lesson in how democracy works.

It was expected that the pound would fall and markets react negatively in view of the immediate uncertainty. Aside from that, what's happened that would make someone say "I didn't know it would be like this"?

Even Paul Krugman, a would-be remainer says " I’m finding myself less horrified by Brexit than one might have expected – in fact, less than I myself expected. The economic consequences will be bad, but not, I’d argue, as bad as many are claiming. The political consequences might be much more dire; but many of the bad things I fear would probably have happened even if Remain had won."

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#178

Post by vixen99 » Mon, Jun 27, 2016, 12:08 PM UTC

antouank wrote: post #45

Nursie wrote: post #21

There's a lot of clutching at straws going on at the moment. People coming out with political or legal theories, trying to interpret David Cameron's failure to immediately declare leaving under article 50 as kicking the whole issue into the long grass etc etc. This is the latest, like others it's more of an exercise in denial than it is in reality. Many of these things could come to pass, it's true, but each one carr…

Around 4 million EU nationals that live in the UK, were not eligible to vote, and they are directly affected by his decision, while they pay taxes and they contribute to the economy as much as the ones who could vote ( if not more... ). Also, a significant percentage of those who voted "Leave", around 10% at least, now would certainly change their vote since they saw that "scare tactics" was basically people telling…

It depends on what you understand by citizenship. As non-Brits they don't have a long-term interest in the future of Britain. For instance, we can assume they will likely have family connections elsewhere. They can leave when they like. They are in the UK for what they can get out of it, as of now. That is not meant pejoratively. It is what I or anyone else would do. If we have the freedom to do so, we plot a life trajectory (including where to locate) with respect to our best interests.

I wonder where do you get the 10% figure; how on earth would you know that in the three days since polling? It's difficult to know what to make of folk who given three months of intense EU/Out/In discussion across the land suddenly discover that they didn't think their vote mattered or that they couldn't make up their minds and tossed a coin. They need a lesson in how democracy works.

It was expected that the pound would fall and markets react negatively in view of the immediate uncertainty. Aside from that, what's happened that would make someone say "I didn't know it would be like this"?

Even Paul Krugman, a would-be remainer says " I’m finding myself less horrified by Brexit than one might have expected – in fact, less than I myself expected. The economic consequences will be bad, but not, I’d argue, as bad as many are claiming. The political consequences might be much more dire; but many of the bad things I fear would probably have happened even if Remain had won."

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#179

Post by jacquesm » Mon, Jun 27, 2016, 12:10 PM UTC

Nursie wrote: post #65

DanBC wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> David Cameron's failure to immediately declare leaving under article 50 as kicking the whole issue into the long grass Maybe not the long grass, but it's a poison chalice for the next leader for the reasons you say - trigger article 50 and Scotland leaves UK and tries to join EU. Don't leave and the majority voters get angry. (And we really don't need them getting angrier since a small minority are angry enough to…

Oh there's political poison all over the place. It's one of the reasons I considered voting leave and am not too pissed off that the way I did vote didn't win - it's rather delightful seeing the turmoil at Westminster.

> it's rather delightful seeing the turmoil at Westminster.

Some men just love to watch the world burn. I will never understand this sentiment.

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#180

Post by sievebrain » Mon, Jun 27, 2016, 12:12 PM UTC

ck425 wrote: post #116

sievebrain wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're mad now. But a second referendum would force the situation to be analysed a lot more carefully. And that situation would not be a strong argument for leaving, no matter how much the Scots might like the idea of the EU.

You presume the referendum will be based on sound analysis. If there's one thing the EUref has shown it's that you don't need sound analysis. It also depends heavily on how the UK does in the coming year. The UK needs to be economically and politically powerful enough that it's not worth giving up for self determination. It doesn't need to be a better deal, it has to be better enough to defeat romantic notions of ind…

There you go: assuming the analysis of leave voters was not sound.

Many voters made a very straightforward analysis: "the EU means I compete against an essentially infinite supply of labour, I can't do that, therefore we should get out of the EU so we can restrict immigration again".

You may not agree with this reasoning or you may feel the various other benefits of the EU outweigh them in your personal circumstances, but it's not an illogical analysis: they think leaving will make them economically better off and there are millions of such voters. It's actually quite difficult to mount a robust economic argument against this idea: you have to argue that the EU will erect such serious trade barriers that all the jobs disappear. But a lot of these people are working in local service industries anyway, they aren't selling to the EU, so you end up arguing a very indirect path to them personally suffering which basically rests on "the EU will be such bastards that the entire UK economy collapses", which then stirs up patriotic sentiments very strongly (reminds people of the war). And you rapidly end up in economic wonk territory because the details of the damage depend so much on details of the final deal, etc. The public, quite rightly, does not trust economists due to their track record of getting the big things wrong.

The economic rationale for Scotland leaving the UK and joining the EU is much less clear. The big one is public spending. The Scots may not like it but their country is subsidised by the UK to a huge degree. The spending deficit alone is the same size as ALL Scottish NHS spending. The economic argument from "lose the subsidies from the English, public services are cut because oil is cheap" is very direct and much more easily understood. Scotland does not have a problem with massive immigration. People like the idea of the EU but what specific economic problem would it solve for them?