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Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

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Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#81

Post by DanBC »

Nursie wrote: post #27
learnstats2 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"the UK won't let Scotland use the pound" was an extremely effective argument that probably won the last referendum. But you're going to need a new one: the euro just became a lot more credible than the pound as a currency for Scotland.

There does remain the question of whether Scotland, which has no proven history of having any sort of independent economy, would come anywhere close to being an acfeptabke risk for the EU and eurozone to take on. I'm not claiming to have an answer one way or another there, but it seems a bit of a risk to just assume that.

Scottish leaders have been in intensive talks with EU recently.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/25/brexit-...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36629331

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/25/sturgeon-see... We knew all along that Scotland was strongly pro-EU.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-3561...

And that the only reason a bunch of people in Scotland voted to stay in the UK was because of promises about staying in EU.

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#82

Post by ck425 »

broodbucket wrote: post #34
alkonaut wrote: post #24

Legally, as far as I understand no. But politically? Almost certainly. If Scotland could remain in the EU (By remaining , not re-joining, which Madrid would oppose) then they almost certainly would. This means that "brexit" would imply the end of the "United" in the UK and I believe that would be enough of a change in circumstances that a) leave politicians could hold off invoking Article 50 without losing face or b)…

Scotland can't leave the UK and remain in the EU. They would have to become independent and then begin the application process, which could take years. There's a real possibility that some EU members will oppose their application. EDIT: "UK Government could use Article 48 of the Lisbon Treaty to apply for a treaty change which would allow Scotland to become a member when it formally becomes independent in 2016. The A…

We might not have to leave the uk and rejoin. There's precedence for regions of countries not being in the EU while other are.

Additionally the UK is a union between Scotland and England so we'd technically not be leaving, but choosing to break the union, at which point the UK ceases to exist and becomes Scotland and England (and it's associated region/principalities etc). Since the UK is the member of the EU (not it constituent countries) if the union is broken before the UK leaves the EU then it's a legally grey area as the country that was a member of the EU no longer exists.

England does automatically inherit all treaties that applied to the UK, both countries would need to renegotiate international treaties as two newly separate countries. Though of course England being the bigger country has a lot more weight in these matters. But England would not be RUK, it would be England, and many matters such as EU membership are with UK.

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#83

Post by cmdkeen »

fennecfoxen wrote: post #52
Nursie wrote: post #21

There's a lot of clutching at straws going on at the moment. People coming out with political or legal theories, trying to interpret David Cameron's failure to immediately declare leaving under article 50 as kicking the whole issue into the long grass etc etc. This is the latest, like others it's more of an exercise in denial than it is in reality. Many of these things could come to pass, it's true, but each one carr…

> each one carries with it the implication that a direct democratic mandate, to leave the EU, is ignored. And there's the problem. There IS a case to be made that a democratic majority with a margin of merely 4% is something that can, in fact, be ignored. In the United States, we have these lovely Senate filibusters, for instance, which everyone loves to complain about when their party isn't the one doing them. And v…

Yep but you can't retrospectively apply a different standard because the result you didn't like happened. Getting such a standard applied in the beginning would also have been tricky given recent precedent (the AV and Scottish referenda) that viewed 50% + 1 as sufficient. Given the Scottish government want a second IndyRef they weren't going to sit by and allow a supermajority clause added to this referendum.

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#84

Post by alkonaut »

broodbucket wrote: post #34
alkonaut wrote: post #24

Legally, as far as I understand no. But politically? Almost certainly. If Scotland could remain in the EU (By remaining , not re-joining, which Madrid would oppose) then they almost certainly would. This means that "brexit" would imply the end of the "United" in the UK and I believe that would be enough of a change in circumstances that a) leave politicians could hold off invoking Article 50 without losing face or b)…

Scotland can't leave the UK and remain in the EU. They would have to become independent and then begin the application process, which could take years. There's a real possibility that some EU members will oppose their application. EDIT: "UK Government could use Article 48 of the Lisbon Treaty to apply for a treaty change which would allow Scotland to become a member when it formally becomes independent in 2016. The A…

> Scotland can't leave the UK and remain in the EU. They would have to become independent and then begin the application process, which could take years.

There is precedence for the opposite. That said, Scotland on its own would have to demonstrate that it can be a member, but it's far from clear that they would have to reapply. Repplying would almost certainly fail because Madrid would block it.

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#85

Post by alkonaut »

smcl wrote: post #50
alkonaut wrote: post #24

Legally, as far as I understand no. But politically? Almost certainly. If Scotland could remain in the EU (By remaining , not re-joining, which Madrid would oppose) then they almost certainly would. This means that "brexit" would imply the end of the "United" in the UK and I believe that would be enough of a change in circumstances that a) leave politicians could hold off invoking Article 50 without losing face or b)…

Just thinking out loud - probably wandering into OT territory here, but ... If Spain was to block an independent Scotland's entry to the EU would they feel the need to provide an explanation? If so would they say the real reason - "we don't want to set a precedent and embolden Catalonia's bid for independence" - or would they weasel out of it somehow?

> If so would they say the real reason - "we don't want to set a precedent and embolden Catalonia's bid for independence"

They would have no second thoughts about saying that out loud. It's not like Madrid are being shy about keeping Catalonia, against their will or not.

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#86

Post by Nursie »

broodbucket wrote: post #46
Nursie wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It does indeed, and there's going to have to be some careful figuring-stuff-out going on, depending on exactly what path the EU and UK take now. There is precedent for open borders between EU and non-EU countries, Norway and Sweden for instance. But that situation is not exactly analagous and I'm not going to pretend I think there's an easy solution.

This is all so interesting! So much uncharted territory, competing factions and general uncertainty. As a non-European this is terrific.

As a Brit I find the while thing fascinating too! You can probably tell I have significant leave leanings even though I voted to remain, and that's because I kinda wanted to see all this unfolding!

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#87

Post by _Understated_ »

antouank wrote: post #64
Nursie wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. They are not citizens, their lives may be affected but they have no vote. This has no bearing whatsoever on any of my argument above. 2. I voted 'remain'. If this result is ignored for a.second referendum I will vote 'leave' because I believe democratic respect is more important than EU membership. 3. Your 10% figure is pure conjecture. 4. It was a 4% margin. 5. Whether the referendum is legally binding or not has…

I guess you do not care whether the UK will be (or maybe is) way worse off economically and that xenophobia/racism is now an "every day" thing. Fine, vote "leave", probably suits better that mentality.

I am utterly disgusted and bloody sick of being portrayed as a racist, xenophobic bigot because I wanted to take back democratic control of my country. Race issues had nothing to do with my decision to leave.

How dare you paint me in that light when you know absolutely nothing about me or my motives for wanting to remove my country from the clutches of an undemocratic state. Your narrow-mindedness is part of the reason I want out.

This all reeks of bitterness and toy-throwing by those that voted remain.

It's over. We are out. Accept it or feel free to move to a European country... I don't mind.

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#88

Post by ck425 »

seanalltogether wrote: post #9

The UK has a mandate from the people to leave the EU. Attempting to block the brexit over technicalities in Unionist agreements is a weak position for any politician to take. If the SNP believes they can successfully build a new mandate from the Scottish people to leave the UK, that would be a position of strength and they should work with that.

The First Minister also has a mandate to represent the Scottish people, who voted to stay in the EU, and most whose elected officials are pro-EU. Not to say I disagree with you, but Nicola Sturgeon (her own political goals aside) is only being competent by exploring these possibilities. Views aside it's nice to see there's at least one British political leader that actually has plans and is publicly engaging in a conversation on what should be next.

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#89

Post by alkonaut »

Nursie wrote: post #30
alkonaut wrote: post #24

Legally, as far as I understand no. But politically? Almost certainly. If Scotland could remain in the EU (By remaining , not re-joining, which Madrid would oppose) then they almost certainly would. This means that "brexit" would imply the end of the "United" in the UK and I believe that would be enough of a change in circumstances that a) leave politicians could hold off invoking Article 50 without losing face or b)…

NI, despite voting remain, is very unlikely to want to leave the UK. Scotland 'remaining' in the EU is far from a done deal, we have yet to hear whether the EU would accept it - it has no record of running its own economy to speak of.

> NI, despite voting remain, is very unlikely to want to leave the UK.

This is part of why the referendum was a bit sketchy - it wasn't very clear about the consequences, even those that were known from the outset.

If there had been three choices: a) UK to Leave, b) UK to remain, and c) UK to leave but only if it can agree as a union to do so (i.e. not break up).

then c) would have been attractive.

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#90

Post by Nursie »

DanBC wrote: post #81
Nursie wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There does remain the question of whether Scotland, which has no proven history of having any sort of independent economy, would come anywhere close to being an acfeptabke risk for the EU and eurozone to take on. I'm not claiming to have an answer one way or another there, but it seems a bit of a risk to just assume that.

Scottish leaders have been in intensive talks with EU recently. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/25/brexit-... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36629331 https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/25/sturgeon-see... We knew all along that Scotland was strongly pro-EU. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-3561... And that the only reason a bunch of people in Scot…

Certainly, I listened to Nicola Sturgeon's post-result address and it sounded like she was out talking to all the leaders she could.

If the question of post-Independence EU membership is resolved on the EU side I'd love to know, during the last referendum the EU was pretty clear there would be no automatic entry for Scotland. But whether that was true or politically driven... guess we'll find out.

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