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Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

bbc.co.uk

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Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#41

Post by Nursie »

broodbucket wrote: post #35
Nursie wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NI, despite voting remain, is very unlikely to want to leave the UK. Scotland 'remaining' in the EU is far from a done deal, we have yet to hear whether the EU would accept it - it has no record of running its own economy to speak of.

It does raise some new issues, as there is now an unpoliced border between EU and non-EU in Ireland. (and by now I mean soon)

It does indeed, and there's going to have to be some careful figuring-stuff-out going on, depending on exactly what path the EU and UK take now. There is precedent for open borders between EU and non-EU countries, Norway and Sweden for instance. But that situation is not exactly analagous and I'm not going to pretend I think there's an easy solution.

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#42

Post by alexbilbie »

pluteoid wrote: post #38
hollander wrote: post #20

How to get out of this mess: quit with this government, call for new elections. Then you make it an election subject: will we follow the referendum or not?! The referendum is advisory, not legally binding. So they can ignore it. If the new elections are clear and people vote 55% to stay in - it's a clear cut case.

As things stand, Cameron will be replaced by a new Conservative leader in October who will be under pressure to call a general election more or less immediately (without the present mess we were not due another one until 2020). The Liberal Democrats, our third largest party, have pledged to run an election campaign based on nullifying the Brexit vote. So it seems what you propose is going to happen, but unfortunately…

The PM can't call for a general election anymore due to the Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011. Only a vote of no confidence in the Government by MPs or a unilateral decision by two thirds of MPs can break the five year parliament and result in a general election.

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#43

Post by DanBC »

Nursie wrote: post #21

There's a lot of clutching at straws going on at the moment. People coming out with political or legal theories, trying to interpret David Cameron's failure to immediately declare leaving under article 50 as kicking the whole issue into the long grass etc etc. This is the latest, like others it's more of an exercise in denial than it is in reality. Many of these things could come to pass, it's true, but each one carr…

> David Cameron's failure to immediately declare leaving under article 50 as kicking the whole issue into the long grass

Maybe not the long grass, but it's a poison chalice for the next leader for the reasons you say - trigger article 50 and Scotland leaves UK and tries to join EU. Don't leave and the majority voters get angry. (And we really don't need them getting angrier since a small minority are angry enough to spray paint Polish community centres; to print and laminate "no more polish vermin" cards. (EDIT: Both these things have happened post-ref.)

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#44

Post by Nursie »

learnstats2 wrote: post #40
Nursie wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There does remain the question of whether Scotland, which has no proven history of having any sort of independent economy, would come anywhere close to being an acfeptabke risk for the EU and eurozone to take on. I'm not claiming to have an answer one way or another there, but it seems a bit of a risk to just assume that.

Although I have no reason to believe that the EU wouldn't accept Scotland on this basis, a fresh accession might require the agreement of 27 countries. There was a question last time about whether Scotland would automatically inherit EU membership or would have to apply for accession. IIRC, the EU wouldn't answer the question directly because Westminster refused to ask them. I'm guessing Nicola Sturgeon might be keen…

I think a lot of people will be waiting for that information, it's likely to be pivotal.

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#45

Post by antouank »

Nursie wrote: post #21

There's a lot of clutching at straws going on at the moment. People coming out with political or legal theories, trying to interpret David Cameron's failure to immediately declare leaving under article 50 as kicking the whole issue into the long grass etc etc. This is the latest, like others it's more of an exercise in denial than it is in reality. Many of these things could come to pass, it's true, but each one carr…

Around 4 million EU nationals that live in the UK, were not eligible to vote, and they are directly affected by his decision, while they pay taxes and they contribute to the economy as much as the ones who could vote ( if not more... ). Also, a significant percentage of those who voted "Leave", around 10% at least, now would certainly change their vote since they saw that "scare tactics" was basically people telling them how economy works. So a false 2% margin is "democracy"? Not really. And this decision is way to big to rely on that typical and false margin. The circumstances do matter.

Oh, by the way, "The referendum was non-binding, it's advisory".

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#46

Post by broodbucket »

Nursie wrote: post #41
broodbucket wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It does raise some new issues, as there is now an unpoliced border between EU and non-EU in Ireland. (and by now I mean soon)

It does indeed, and there's going to have to be some careful figuring-stuff-out going on, depending on exactly what path the EU and UK take now. There is precedent for open borders between EU and non-EU countries, Norway and Sweden for instance. But that situation is not exactly analagous and I'm not going to pretend I think there's an easy solution.

This is all so interesting! So much uncharted territory, competing factions and general uncertainty. As a non-European this is terrific.

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#47

Post by pi-err »

To quote a Tory MP: "Nicola Sturgeon seems to be the only one who knows what's she's doing".

Warning of a constitutional crisis is good tactics. It probably will not lead to canceling brexit, though it will probably break the 1998 devolution law and change how Scotland can "sell" independence and its claim to stay in the EU.

So it looks like this is either to lay ground for a "fast track" EU access due to special circumstances - OR getting special new rights within the UK to compensate leaving the EU.

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#48

Post by Magnets »

hollander wrote: post #20

How to get out of this mess: quit with this government, call for new elections. Then you make it an election subject: will we follow the referendum or not?! The referendum is advisory, not legally binding. So they can ignore it. If the new elections are clear and people vote 55% to stay in - it's a clear cut case.

The way our election system works, nothing is clear cut, it's partly why so many don't vote in general elections and why so many did vote in the referendum. (66% vs 72% turnout).

How would the conservatives pledge? Half of them want out and spent the last few months campaigning for it.

Many Labour areas of the country voted to leave, calling an election would just provide more confusion.

I also don't think it's a good idea to just vote in a government based on 1 aspect

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#49

Post by onion2k »

Nursie wrote: post #21

There's a lot of clutching at straws going on at the moment. People coming out with political or legal theories, trying to interpret David Cameron's failure to immediately declare leaving under article 50 as kicking the whole issue into the long grass etc etc. This is the latest, like others it's more of an exercise in denial than it is in reality. Many of these things could come to pass, it's true, but each one carr…

each one carries with it the implication that a direct democratic mandate, to leave the EU, is ignored

There is no such mandate, implied or otherwise. The referendum was advisory. Legally there is nothing compelling the government to act on the result.

Re: Could the Scottish Parliament Stop the UK from Leaving the EU?

#50

Post by smcl »

alkonaut wrote: post #24

Legally, as far as I understand no. But politically? Almost certainly. If Scotland could remain in the EU (By remaining , not re-joining, which Madrid would oppose) then they almost certainly would. This means that "brexit" would imply the end of the "United" in the UK and I believe that would be enough of a change in circumstances that a) leave politicians could hold off invoking Article 50 without losing face or b)…

Just thinking out loud - probably wandering into OT territory here, but ...

If Spain was to block an independent Scotland's entry to the EU would they feel the need to provide an explanation? If so would they say the real reason - "we don't want to set a precedent and embolden Catalonia's bid for independence" - or would they weasel out of it somehow?

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