Sturgeon seeks Brussels talks to protect Scotland's EU membership • Hacker News Board

Re: Sturgeon seeks Brussels talks to protect Scotland's EU membership

#61

Post by nolok » Sat, Jun 25, 2016, 6:55 PM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #32

Oletros wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Worth seeing which countries will remain in the EU by the time UK finalises the exit All of them? The only ones asking a referendum are two far right parties in Holland and France

Between Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders they can still do a lot of damage to those countries but NL without the EU is a joke and France has way too much to lose (more than the UK did) so I highly doubt (hope?) that this will not come to pass.

Le Pen has less elected member of parliament than I have fingers on one of my hands (and I have the regular five fingers by hand).

Even in their "great swipe" of 2014, they got 14 mayors total. In a country counting roughly 36 000 mayors (yes, I know ...).

The FN is actually very very weak, it keeps being seen doing huge jump forwards in numbers but that's mostly because the others are being very dumb and for the FN a single new member of parliament is a 50% jump ahead, which makes for a good headline.

The FN biggest strength is actually the media attention they get and how it drives them forward, there was a study about that showing they were te party being given the most media attention and it giving them the biggest result boost (despite "we are ignored by the media" being on their main card, like all populist parties)

Re: Sturgeon seeks Brussels talks to protect Scotland's EU membership

#62

Post by cygx » Sat, Jun 25, 2016, 7:17 PM UTC

nolok wrote: post #59

cygx wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There might not be an EU by the time Scotland gets a vote to secede Doubtful: As long as France and Germany are on board, the EU will survive in some fashion. The comment[1] of German economist Max Otte[2] regarding the British vote? Good riddance, now we can stop accomodating UK sensibilities. Also remember, when the UK wanted to join the EEC? De Gaulle sent them packing twice... [1] http://www.tagesschau.de/wirtsch…

> Doubtful: As long as France and Germany are on board, the EU will survive in some fashion. I would go further than that, while you are absolutely right, long before we reach that point we have the "second core" of Belgium, Italy and Spain, none of which are actually leaving anytime soon. Can add Portugal, Austria and Luxembourg as a "sure takers" third wave.

It's from 2014 (so in particular before the refugee crisis), but a look at Special Eurobarometer 415 [1] might still be instructive, eg QA13.3 [2]. This could have saved Cameron some embarrassment...

[1] http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/ebs/ebs_415_en.p...

[2] http://i.imgur.com/2kNwdtf.png

Re: Sturgeon seeks Brussels talks to protect Scotland's EU membership

#63

Post by nazgob » Sat, Jun 25, 2016, 7:19 PM UTC

jacalata wrote: post #50

jcfrei wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why should Scotland join the Euro? As you've outlined it's not in their interest.

All recent new members have been required to, I believe.

Yes but no. There is no deadline. So if you don't wait it, you can just delay it forever. Many countries does just that. Others like Poland, even if they would want to join, have national currently enforced in constitution and changing that is super hard.

Re: Sturgeon seeks Brussels talks to protect Scotland's EU membership

#64

Post by bArray » Sat, Jun 25, 2016, 9:29 PM UTC

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #58

bArray wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know of a lot of British people who do not want Scotland to be part of the UK. They get more funding per head, their own government and then complain they are unfairly treated.

Scotland and London are the only two regions that pay their own way. The rest live off subsidies from the UK and Europe. The ironies and cognitive dissonance of little Englanders never ceases. Since this is a fact, you see some very odd and contorted phrases to imply otherwise. One classic is to say that Scotland spends more than it earns. Which is entirely true, Scotland runs a deficit. What isn't mentioned is that…

"Scotland and London are the only two regions that pay their own way. The rest live off subsidies from the UK and Europe. The ironies and cognitive dissonance of little Englanders never ceases."

I assume you don't live in England, or if you do you live in one of those two areas. It's not true at all. A lot of people travel daily to larger cities to work, making them look better than they are.

"What isn't mentioned is that the UK as a whole runs a deficit."

It's more about them running at more of a deficit. If you don't believe me, believe the Scottish [1].

"But Leave voters have shown themselves to be very susceptible to propaganda as long as it talks down "the other"."

I'm not a leave voter, if you're trying to use that against me.

[1] http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/public-spending-per-head-in-...

Re: Sturgeon seeks Brussels talks to protect Scotland's EU membership

#65

Post by bArray » Sat, Jun 25, 2016, 9:31 PM UTC

amouat wrote: post #35

bArray wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know of a lot of British people who do not want Scotland to be part of the UK. They get more funding per head, their own government and then complain they are unfairly treated.

Unfairly treated? You mean like being dragged out of a union against our political will?

I voted remain also, it's just tough luck.

What will be interesting now is whether Scotland really has the economy to survive on their own in the EU. Other smaller Countries have not yet been successful.

Re: Sturgeon seeks Brussels talks to protect Scotland's EU membership

#66

Post by bArray » Sat, Jun 25, 2016, 9:38 PM UTC

jwdunne wrote: post #40

amouat wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfairly treated? You mean like being dragged out of a union against our political will?

Personally, I think you do deserve a second referendum. The remain/leave map shows a clear border. Northumberland votes out. North of that, its all remain. The biggest thing to me is that many in the leave camp used very similar arguments against the leave camp in the Scottish indy ref. That and the EU/better together camp said Scotland wouldn't be part of the EU if they left and should therefore stay. Note: from Man…

"Personally, I think you do deserve a second referendum. The remain/leave map shows a clear border. Northumberland votes out. North of that, its all remain."

It's tough luck. You can't threaten to quit every time things don't work out for you.

"The biggest thing to me is that many in the leave camp used very similar arguments against the leave camp in the Scottish indy ref."

I don't think anybody envisioned we would actually leave.

"That and the EU/better together camp said Scotland wouldn't be part of the EU if they left and should therefore stay."

It's not entirely clear that Scotland will be able to join the EU anyway. There's a long waiting list and large payment required.

"Note: from Manchester. Voted remain. Don't see the SNP as the national threat they're portrayed to be."

I also voted remain. I'm not afraid of the threat of Scotland to the rest of the UK, I'm afraid of Scotland's threat to itself.

Re: Sturgeon seeks Brussels talks to protect Scotland's EU membership

#67

Post by touristtam » Sat, Jun 25, 2016, 9:46 PM UTC

atmosx wrote: post #9

The EU membership will most likely come with a change of currency, which means leaving the BoE for the ECB. Given the ECB's track record and it's inability to do what a central bank ought to do - protect banks from bank runs, devalue, etc. - I believe that it's suicidal. The QE was was a joke. Surplus recycling is nowhere to be found in the European Union, vis-a-vis Germany Scotland will have deficit, hence it's doom…

The EU project is a political one (encompassing things like currency, fiscal and social union), and not just a single market like the most liberal English right winger want it to be. The referendum is a plebiscite for this politic, even though it seems that part of the electorate has been conned into voting to leave.

Re: Sturgeon seeks Brussels talks to protect Scotland's EU membership

#68

Post by touristtam » Sat, Jun 25, 2016, 9:58 PM UTC

nolok wrote: post #61

jacquesm wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Between Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders they can still do a lot of damage to those countries but NL without the EU is a joke and France has way too much to lose (more than the UK did) so I highly doubt (hope?) that this will not come to pass.

Le Pen has less elected member of parliament than I have fingers on one of my hands (and I have the regular five fingers by hand). Even in their "great swipe" of 2014, they got 14 mayors total. In a country counting roughly 36 000 mayors (yes, I know ...). The FN is actually very very weak, it keeps being seen doing huge jump forwards in numbers but that's mostly because the others are being very dumb and for the FN…

Further that, the FN has often been played by both Left and Right to weaken the opposition.

Re: Sturgeon seeks Brussels talks to protect Scotland's EU membership

#69

Post by atmosx » Sat, Jun 25, 2016, 10:03 PM UTC

tehabe wrote: post #49

atmosx wrote: post #9

The EU membership will most likely come with a change of currency, which means leaving the BoE for the ECB. Given the ECB's track record and it's inability to do what a central bank ought to do - protect banks from bank runs, devalue, etc. - I believe that it's suicidal. The QE was was a joke. Surplus recycling is nowhere to be found in the European Union, vis-a-vis Germany Scotland will have deficit, hence it's doom…

Sorry, you are in almost everything wrong. Deficits are not really a problem. Currently, the lack of a deficit is the main reason, why the ECB set the interest rate to zero. Almost all European governments cut spending and remove money from the economy. The results are awful is most economies, except those which can export more than import. They live on the deficit of other countries. BTW Germany is currently the cou…

> Sorry, you are in almost everything wrong. Deficits are not really a problem. Currently, the lack of a deficit is the main reason, why the ECB set the interest rate to zero. Almost all European governments cut spending and remove money from the economy. The results are awful is most economies, except those which can export more than import. They live on the deficit of other countries.

Maybe I didn't make my self clear: I didn't say that deficit is a problem per se. I argued that given the current design and status quo in the EU, any country that has a deficit vis-a-vis Germany should stay out of the common currency because inevitably, it will end up like Greece in the long run.

I agree with most of what you said. Regarding Germany and the ECB, that's true but it's only a small part of the bigger picture.

Re: Sturgeon seeks Brussels talks to protect Scotland's EU membership

#70

Post by narrowrail » Sat, Jun 25, 2016, 10:07 PM UTC

touristtam wrote: post #67

atmosx wrote: post #9

The EU membership will most likely come with a change of currency, which means leaving the BoE for the ECB. Given the ECB's track record and it's inability to do what a central bank ought to do - protect banks from bank runs, devalue, etc. - I believe that it's suicidal. The QE was was a joke. Surplus recycling is nowhere to be found in the European Union, vis-a-vis Germany Scotland will have deficit, hence it's doom…

The EU project is a political one (encompassing things like currency, fiscal and social union), and not just a single market like the most liberal English right winger want it to be. The referendum is a plebiscite for this politic, even though it seems that part of the electorate has been conned into voting to leave.

I had to look up plebiscite, which turns out to be a synonym for referendum (as far as I can tell). As a result, your comment is kind of cryptic.