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Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

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Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#151

Post by pimlottc »

caoilte wrote: post #126
pimlottc wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> All northern Ireland citizens are entitled to dual nationality AFAICT, Northern Ireland citizens do not have any special eligibility for Republic of Ireland citizenship; however, many of them likely qualify under the normal requirements which permit anyone born, or whose parents or grandparents were born, anywhere on the island of Ireland.

That's basically all non-immigrants. Also all children of immigrants since 2005.

Yes, but it's not quite the same thing as "all". Around 9% of the population (as of 2011) were not born on the island of Ireland. Of course, this does not preclude them from having parents or grandparents who were, but certainly the number of Northern Ireland not eligible for Irish citizenship is not zero.

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#152

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

p4wnc6 wrote: post #92
mjevans wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll take your word on those numbers as they sound reasonable. However I do believe you've neglected the other points of the post which were about the value of access to the European market place and that 10% say in how said market is run. Those are costs / benefits which are not so easily counted before the painful divorce is complete.

But it's unlikely for EU nations to significantly damage trading relationships with the UK. Germany, for example, exports a huge volume of cars to the UK and it comprises a significant portion of German GDP. Yes, there's volatility around exactly how such a trade deal will get worked out, but it's unrealistic to lump "access to European markets" into one big ball and assume that Brexit means that whole topic will be…

Real numbers here.

http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/how-would-key-export-sec...

Some key UK export sectors - especially finance - have a very low probability of being able to carry on as normal.

The German car industry accounts for around 3% of GDP. Sales to the UK are less than 1% of German GDP.

The UK financial industry accounts for around 10% of GDP. Sales to the EU are around 4% of UK GDP.

As a rough guess estimate, post-Brexit disruption is going to lose 1-2% of that, and could lose more - because there's very little London can do for Europe that can't be done just as easily in Frankfurt.

The UK has a lot more to lose than Germany does.

But the EU traditionally plays hardball with negotiations. Ask Greece.

So there is no chance at all the UK isn't going to have to make significant - expensive - sacrifices to keep trading.

This vote is literally the most staggeringly stupid and self-destructive act I've seen in my lifetime.

Take away the jingoism and the flag-waving and the blatant lies about immigration and sovereignty, and you have a country which relies on a huge captive market voting to - at best - change the terms of access to that market in ways that cannot possibly be more advantageous than they are now.

Some trade will continue, but the overall effect on the UK is going to be very negative indeed.

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#153

Post by RickHull »

masklinn wrote: post #111
tomp wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with yummyfajitas here. A rational person would say "OK, we're not compatible, let's split up, but no point destroying the house, spending all our money on lawyers and kill each other". An irrational, emotional, greedy or terribly insecure person would say "You? Leaving me ? How could you?! You FUCKER! I'LL RUIN YOU!!! AAAARGGGGGHHHH!!!!!"

You've got your roles exactly inverted here. The UK left screaming, huffing and smashing the door but apparently expecting the same benefits they enjoyed beforehand, as a rational person the EU would have no reason whatsoever to entertain that behaviour let alone reward it. The EU has no rational reason to be especially sweet on the UK, and looking internally and at the future it can't even be seen as that as it woul…

> The UK left screaming, huffing and smashing the door

Huh? This is your characterization of a referendum on membership?

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#154

Post by volatilitish »

dragonwriter wrote: post #143
volatilitish wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. We will now be free to negotiate trade deals with countries outside the EU (Which we currently are not able to do. The EU has been absolutely awful at trying to negotiate trade deals with other countries). We will negotiate a trade deal with the EU as a whole. Everyone in the UK knows those facts.

> We will now be free to negotiate trade deals with countries outside the EU (Which we currently are not able to do. The EU has been absolutely awful at trying to negotiate trade deals with other countries). We will negotiate a trade deal with the EU as a whole. The second sentence of the parenthetical, if taken to be true, casts significant doubt on the claim in the final sentence. I don't doubt that the requirement…

I don't understand.

The EU has been extremely ineffective at negotiating trade deals between the 28 EU countries, and non EU countries.

We (UK) will be far more effective at negotiating our own trade deals with non EU countries. It's far simpler for a start.

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#155

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

tomp wrote: post #120
masklinn wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've got your roles exactly inverted here. The UK left screaming, huffing and smashing the door but apparently expecting the same benefits they enjoyed beforehand, as a rational person the EU would have no reason whatsoever to entertain that behaviour let alone reward it. The EU has no rational reason to be especially sweet on the UK, and looking internally and at the future it can't even be seen as that as it woul…

Well, yes, I guess being mean is rational, and being nice irrational.

But hey - that's capitalism.

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#156

Post by theoh »

mattmanser wrote: post #72
Animats wrote: post #48

This may mean the breakup of the United Kingdom, too. Scotland and Northern Ireland mostly want to stay in Europe, and may choose to leave the UK, leaving Britain and Wales as the UK.[1] As a practical matter, it will become harder to do business into the EU from Britain. Visiting the EU from Britain may require a visa, and visiting Britain from the EU almost certainly will. This is really about Keeping Britain White…

Half the people in the UK aren't racists and it doesn't make you look good claiming they are. It was actually part of the problem and why leave won, no-one listened to their legitimate concerns and just kept sidelining a large chunk of the electorate by calling them racists. For most people it's not about racism and it's certainly not about colour (the most recent mass-migration from the EU are white anyway!). Citing…

You're making an inverse "no true scotsman" argument. Actually the vast majority of humanity is racist to some degree, including most of us posting here. It's something people need to learn to overcome.

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#157

Post by anexprogrammer »

pimlottc wrote: post #121
anexprogrammer wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I heard on the news earlier that already large numbers have sought Eire citizenship by applying for an Irish (hence EU) passport. (All northern Ireland citizens are entitled to dual nationality). So it may end up helping the United Ireland opinion by proxy if large numbers continue to seek Irish passports.

> All northern Ireland citizens are entitled to dual nationality AFAICT, Northern Ireland citizens do not have any special eligibility for Republic of Ireland citizenship; however, many of them likely qualify under the normal requirements which permit anyone born, or whose parents or grandparents were born, anywhere on the island of Ireland.

Well perhaps I condensed too much, but Irish citizenship is a little unusual in that it automatically entitles anyone born in NI (being part of the island of Ireland) to nationality too, rather than stopping at the national border. Add in the entitlement for anyone with a British or Irish parent and the parental residency and it's covered nearly all. So no special eligibility other than that achieved by the terms of their citizenship act.

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#158

Post by volatilitish »

BuildTheRobots wrote: post #136
return0 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its not like that, without a common language and currency, EU presence in the UK is not much more than a common set of certain standards.

Standards like Human Rights, which is something the UK has already expressed an interest in removing.

It's like some people here are basing their opinions completely on "I read it online".

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#159

Post by hsitz »

rayiner wrote: post #70
return0 wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> to regain independence. I hope that word doesn't stick. All EU countries are independent, as is the UK. For the sake of all 27 EU countries , please stop using divisive and wrong rhetoric. > Long term, we now have control of our future. I would like to hear one concrete way in which the future is going to be, after the negotiations, substantially different than what it is today. > And can anyone on here really stan…

> I hope that word doesn't stick. All EU countries are independent, as is the UK. For the sake of all 27 EU countries , please stop using divisive and wrong rhetoric. Lesson from the US: You can't have sovereigns with superior sovereigns. Individual US states are on paper sovereign, but in reality have been relegated to being administrative districts of the federal government with little meaningful right to self-dete…

The EU is not some sort of sovereign. It's an organization staffed by bureaucrats (i.e., unelected officials) for the purpose of furthering the agreed upon goals of the member sovereign states. Comparison with U.S. is ridiculous.

Re: Doom, Gloom and Unease: London's Tech Scene Reacts to Brexit

#160

Post by guard-of-terra »

cromwellian wrote: post #128

Right now, among all industrialized economies, there is a crisis happening as deindustrialization is taking place. This has fundamentally altered the assumptions of steady and stable middle class economic growth that was an anomaly mostly between the 1940s-1970s. As a result, people are mad "at the system", what what we're seeing is political movements redirecting public anger at whatever target they wish. In the US,…

Why can't a person be opposed to mass immigration even if it won't bring economic benefits?

I'm not in UK frankly, but I'm definitely ready to sacrifice part of my income if that would curb mass immigration.

Unfortunately, nobody ever proposed so.

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