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Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4M Years

scientificamerican.com

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Re: Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4M Years

#51

Post by sevenless »

hyperbovine wrote: post #17
danieltillett wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Relying on natural processes yes there is a problem, but if we were to put WWII levels of resources into it we could create artificial trees [1] while hiding under a short term SO2 umbrella [2]. Of course I doubt we will actually do this. 1. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_removal 2. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_engineering

I have no doubt at we will try this, plus a lot of even dumber ideas, once the shit really starts to hit the fan. The world is not going to just sit back as Manhattan, Mumbai, Shanghai, Sydney, Rio, etc. disappear under a foot or two of water. Politicians (the same one who spent 50 years failing on this issue) will demand action. It's the best argument I can think of for putting serious research effort into geoengine…

I'm very confident the USA will respond effectively to global warming as soon as the Midwest actually sets on fire and not a moment before.

Re: Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4M Years

#52

Post by lisper »

andrewstuart2 wrote: post #48
jakeogh wrote: post #10

Nice visualization from NASA: https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a011700/a011719/11719-...

Am I reading the visualization right that CO2 practically disappears every summer? Wouldn't it logically follow then that we're not actually too late to fix our CO2 levels? If we can reduce emissions, plant consumption during the summer months for the northern hemisphere appears to be incredibly effective at basically demolishing the built-up CO2. Or is the "too late" aspect more about the melting polar caps, and tha…

> Am I reading the visualization right that CO2 practically disappears every summer?

No. The concentration does drop seasonally, but not even close to zero. See:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

Click on the "full record" tab and note that the Y axis starts at 320 (compared to the preindustrial level of 270).

The seasonal drop is about 5PPM, and we're at about 400 now, roughly 50% over pre-industrial levels. There are seasonal natural emissions as well. Even if we cut artificial emissions to zero it would still take the better part of a century (maybe even several centuries) to get back down to preindustrial CO2 levels.

Re: Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4M Years

#53

Post by gizmo686 »

andrewstuart2 wrote: post #48
jakeogh wrote: post #10

Nice visualization from NASA: https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a011700/a011719/11719-...

Am I reading the visualization right that CO2 practically disappears every summer? Wouldn't it logically follow then that we're not actually too late to fix our CO2 levels? If we can reduce emissions, plant consumption during the summer months for the northern hemisphere appears to be incredibly effective at basically demolishing the built-up CO2. Or is the "too late" aspect more about the melting polar caps, and tha…

Unfortunately, plants do not sequester much CO2 long term. Instead, the CO2 gets released back to the atmosphere as plants die off.

Re: Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4M Years

#55

Post by willholloway »

lisper wrote: post #52
andrewstuart2 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Am I reading the visualization right that CO2 practically disappears every summer? Wouldn't it logically follow then that we're not actually too late to fix our CO2 levels? If we can reduce emissions, plant consumption during the summer months for the northern hemisphere appears to be incredibly effective at basically demolishing the built-up CO2. Or is the "too late" aspect more about the melting polar caps, and tha…

> Am I reading the visualization right that CO2 practically disappears every summer? No. The concentration does drop seasonally, but not even close to zero. See: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ Click on the "full record" tab and note that the Y axis starts at 320 (compared to the preindustrial level of 270). The seasonal drop is about 5PPM, and we're at about 400 now, roughly 50% over pre-industrial levels.…

We can fix this, we can take the carbon out of the atmosphere [1]. There is reason for optimism. We. Are. Not. Doomed. The optimum level of carbon is probably slightly above pre-industrial levels. We definitely need to get back below 350ppm to keep human civilization... civilized.

400ppm+ is a trajectory to anarchy. The chimpanzee raiding impulse is alive and well in our DNA, a survival adaptation for stagnation and decline.

We have the technology, bio-energy with carbon capture and sequestration, its a scaling problem, but first we have to stop pumping so much carbon up into the air. We have made progress there as well:

1) Cheap Solar PV has arrived, growth has been exponential for two decades. [2]

2) Energy storage is possible. Think underground maglev trains, on circular tracks, working as massive flywheels.

3) Fusion is attainable in the time frame we need it in, if we increase research funding, but its not required. That said if we cracked fusion, we would have all the energy we would need to desalinate seawater and sequester carbon.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics

Re: Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4M Years

#56

Post by afarrell »

sevenless wrote: post #51
hyperbovine wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have no doubt at we will try this, plus a lot of even dumber ideas, once the shit really starts to hit the fan. The world is not going to just sit back as Manhattan, Mumbai, Shanghai, Sydney, Rio, etc. disappear under a foot or two of water. Politicians (the same one who spent 50 years failing on this issue) will demand action. It's the best argument I can think of for putting serious research effort into geoengine…

I'm very confident the USA will respond effectively to global warming as soon as the Midwest actually sets on fire and not a moment before.

As soon as Houston stops being the 4th largest city in America or people come up with a plan for how to kill a city's main industry without it turning into a hotbed of suicide and violent crime.

Re: Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4M Years

#57

Post by TheOtherHobbes »

Retric wrote: post #23
Fiahil wrote: post #13

So, when should we start our preparation for the apocalypse? 2020? 2025?

Never. The issue with climate change is it's not going to harm wealthy people, so it's not a problem for them. In other words bad shit might happen to 75% of the worlds population, but so what. During the Irish potato famine, Ireland exported food. Think about that for a little bit. Throughout the entire period of the Famine, Ireland was exporting enormous quantities of food. Cormac O'Grada points out that, in Irelan…

Climate change is already harming wealthy people in the UK who bought nice houses on flood plains or near the Thames.

It's no longer possible to buy insurance in some areas - the insurance companies are ahead of the game on modelling climate change impacts - and many people are trying to move away from those areas, with varying degrees of success.

Parts of the country are literally becoming uninhabitable.

I had to drive through a flash flood today, and it made me wonder just how much worse the weather can get. At some point in the next few decades we'll probably start having tropical hurricanes - which will be immense fun in a country that's completely unprepared for them.

Also, London is a climate disaster waiting to happen. The Thames Barrier protects London from tidal flood water, but it won't do anything at all to prevent the kind of storms that hit France and Germany last week.

Re: Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4M Years

#58

Post by Daishiman »

tim333 wrote: post #43
nxzero wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Question is if humanity would have been able to survive for the duration of those 4m years; Earth surviving humanity to my knowledge has never been the issue.

Well, our ancestors were around. It seems it was about 2C hotter from 10 to 4m years ago https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:All_palaeotemps.svg

Yes, but they were a couple million and most, and consuming orders of magnitude fewer resources than we are.

Re: Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4M Years

#59

Post by 50CNT »

willholloway wrote: post #55
lisper wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Am I reading the visualization right that CO2 practically disappears every summer? No. The concentration does drop seasonally, but not even close to zero. See: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ Click on the "full record" tab and note that the Y axis starts at 320 (compared to the preindustrial level of 270). The seasonal drop is about 5PPM, and we're at about 400 now, roughly 50% over pre-industrial levels.…

We can fix this, we can take the carbon out of the atmosphere [1]. There is reason for optimism. We. Are. Not. Doomed. The optimum level of carbon is probably slightly above pre-industrial levels. We definitely need to get back below 350ppm to keep human civilization... civilized. 400ppm+ is a trajectory to anarchy. The chimpanzee raiding impulse is alive and well in our DNA, a survival adaptation for stagnation and…

Why not just massive flywheels? What's the benefit of having a train go over tracks instead of having a large solid wheel?

Re: Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4M Years

#60

Post by caf »

tim333 wrote: post #43
nxzero wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Question is if humanity would have been able to survive for the duration of those 4m years; Earth surviving humanity to my knowledge has never been the issue.

Well, our ancestors were around. It seems it was about 2C hotter from 10 to 4m years ago https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:All_palaeotemps.svg

They weren't humans, though: humans have only been around for about 0.2M years.
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