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Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4M Years

scientificamerican.com

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Re: Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4M Years

#41

Post by ageofwant »

Retric wrote: post #23
Fiahil wrote: post #13

So, when should we start our preparation for the apocalypse? 2020? 2025?

Never. The issue with climate change is it's not going to harm wealthy people, so it's not a problem for them. In other words bad shit might happen to 75% of the worlds population, but so what. During the Irish potato famine, Ireland exported food. Think about that for a little bit. Throughout the entire period of the Famine, Ireland was exporting enormous quantities of food. Cormac O'Grada points out that, in Irelan…

I did not know this. The middle part I mean.

Re: Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4M Years

#42

Post by m4x »

tim333 wrote: post #36

I wonder why it was at 400ppm 4m years ago. Presumably the Earth survived the last time.

Earth will survive next time too. I'm pretty sure Earth could survive absolutely anything we throw at it. Life on Earth may not survive in it's current form, however.

It's interesting to note that the last time a life form on Earth substantially changed the Earth's atmosphere, it caused "one of the most significant extinction events in Earth's history" (see https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Oxygenation_Event and https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_...)

Re: Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4M Years

#43

Post by tim333 »

nxzero wrote: post #37
tim333 wrote: post #36

I wonder why it was at 400ppm 4m years ago. Presumably the Earth survived the last time.

Question is if humanity would have been able to survive for the duration of those 4m years; Earth surviving humanity to my knowledge has never been the issue.

Well, our ancestors were around. It seems it was about 2C hotter from 10 to 4m years ago https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:All_palaeotemps.svg

Re: Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4M Years

#44

Post by ageofwant »

danieltillett wrote: post #16
lossolo wrote: post #2

The worst thing is that we can't stop it when it will be too late. This doesn't work like a switch. Even if we would drastically cut all CO2 emission those levels would not drop in our lifetimes.

Relying on natural processes yes there is a problem, but if we were to put WWII levels of resources into it we could create artificial trees [1] while hiding under a short term SO2 umbrella [2]. Of course I doubt we will actually do this. 1. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_removal 2. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_engineering

Of all these I believe ocean iron seeding to be the most interesting and viable. It may also improve fish stock and have other direct economic benefits.

The negative knee-jerk reaction of my fellow Greens on this matter is is only topped by our anti-nuclear power rhetoric.

Global adoption of LFTR reactors combined with the massive reduction in coal/oil power plants, ocean iron seeding and the adoption of electric vehicles should get global C02 levels close to pre-industrial levels within 200 years, if we start today.

Re: Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4M Years

#45

Post by mturmon »

engi_nerd wrote: post #31
mturmon wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OCO blew up on launch, but OCO-2, its successor, has been producing data since 2014. This nature run was from 2006, which predates the OCO-2 era, and predates GOSAT, another CO2 satellite. It may overlap partly with SCIAMACHY, an ESA mission. But in summary, I don't think the video was heavily constrained by actual CO2 observations, which are done only at a small number of sites on the ground (TCCON or FTIR). The vid…

OCO didn't blow up on launch. The payload fairing failed to separate. The vehicle couldn't reach orbit. Doesn't really impact what you're saying (nor does it alleviate the massive embarrassment of Orbital Sciences).

Sloppy of me! You're right, of course. I knew people who went to see the launch at Vandenberg, and (being on the science team) they were crushed [edited to clarify: metaphorically! -- having spent so much hard work in preparation for eventual results] just a few minutes after launch, so I put it into the wrong mental category.

Re: Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4M Years

#46

Post by baddox »

hyperbovine wrote: post #17
danieltillett wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Relying on natural processes yes there is a problem, but if we were to put WWII levels of resources into it we could create artificial trees [1] while hiding under a short term SO2 umbrella [2]. Of course I doubt we will actually do this. 1. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_removal 2. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_engineering

I have no doubt at we will try this, plus a lot of even dumber ideas, once the shit really starts to hit the fan. The world is not going to just sit back as Manhattan, Mumbai, Shanghai, Sydney, Rio, etc. disappear under a foot or two of water. Politicians (the same one who spent 50 years failing on this issue) will demand action. It's the best argument I can think of for putting serious research effort into geoengine…

It's probably a lot cheaper for those cities to build flood control systems.

Re: Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4M Years

#47

Post by baddox »

Retric wrote: post #23
Fiahil wrote: post #13

So, when should we start our preparation for the apocalypse? 2020? 2025?

Never. The issue with climate change is it's not going to harm wealthy people, so it's not a problem for them. In other words bad shit might happen to 75% of the worlds population, but so what. During the Irish potato famine, Ireland exported food. Think about that for a little bit. Throughout the entire period of the Famine, Ireland was exporting enormous quantities of food. Cormac O'Grada points out that, in Irelan…

I'm not sure why that requires "large" numbers of people to be evil. I suppose it depends what you mean by "large."

Re: Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4M Years

#48

Post by andrewstuart2 »

jakeogh wrote: post #10

Nice visualization from NASA: https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a011700/a011719/11719-...

Am I reading the visualization right that CO2 practically disappears every summer? Wouldn't it logically follow then that we're not actually too late to fix our CO2 levels? If we can reduce emissions, plant consumption during the summer months for the northern hemisphere appears to be incredibly effective at basically demolishing the built-up CO2.

Or is the "too late" aspect more about the melting polar caps, and that they'd not rebuild quickly?

Re: Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4M Years

#49

Post by gwent »

c0ur7n3y wrote: post #28
lossolo wrote: post #2

The worst thing is that we can't stop it when it will be too late. This doesn't work like a switch. Even if we would drastically cut all CO2 emission those levels would not drop in our lifetimes.

Here's an excellent presentation about that from a psychology perspective: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnEO2ysnO6Q Half of us are in denial, half of us are doing ineffective things, and half of us are in China.

Note: I buy into global warming, but that video was terrible and only manages to worsen the case for global warming.

He claims people are global warming deniers and uses ice cores to prove the case, only he's an idiot for not realizing that MOST of the people he's referring to are not denying that the earth is warming up, rather they're clearly saying that it is the impact/outcome where there is a disagreement.

He consistently and unjustifiably uses answers for peripheral problems to debate core arguments which only destroys his credibility. I could only watch for so long... I just had to stop, it was hurting that much.

Re: Antarctic CO2 Hit 400 PPM for First Time in 4M Years

#50

Post by tstactplsignore »

tim333 wrote: post #36

I wonder why it was at 400ppm 4m years ago. Presumably the Earth survived the last time.

It's the transition speed that is most important to consider. Past climatic changes have caused extinction events of varying degrees, but they happened on a timescale of tens to hundreds of thousands of years. We are changing the world's environments in equally or even more dramatic ways (ocean acidification, climate change, habitat destruction, deforestation, overfishing) on a timescale of just a couple hundred years that is currently driving the unprecedented extinction rates [1]. We could raise CO2 and the temperature slowly over thousands of years and the biosphere would have time to adapt, but it's the rate of current change that is so devastating.

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/sep/29/earth-lo...

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