"In other words, given what we now know about the number and orbital positions of the galaxy’s planets, the degree of pessimism required to doubt the existence, at some point in time, of an advanced extraterrestrial civilization borders on the irrational." This is terribly silly. It reminds me of the Onion talks: "Step 1: Devise an idea to create a car that runs on compost. Step 2: Create the car. We’ve already compl…
Your assumption that the odds of abiogenesis is given by `~1/2^n, where n is the complexity in bits' is utterly, completely false. Statistical mechanical entropy and information theoretical entropy ('complexity in bits') are not the same quantities! But even if they were, your expression would still be incorrect because living system are definitionally not at equilibrium - so equilibrium statistical mechanics (whose…
This assertion (whether thermodynamic entropy and information theoretic entropy are equivalent) is an ongoing controversy open to debate - it shouldn't be stated as fact. See wikipedia for (a summary of) both sides of the story: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entropy_in_thermodynamics_and_... (specifically the #Theoretical_relationship and #Criticism sections)