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There Have Probably Been Aliens

nytimes.com

111–120 of 163 posts

Re: There Have Probably Been Aliens

#111
post #9

"In other words, given what we now know about the number and orbital positions of the galaxy’s planets, the degree of pessimism required to doubt the existence, at some point in time, of an advanced extraterrestrial civilization borders on the irrational." This is terribly silly. It reminds me of the Onion talks: "Step 1: Devise an idea to create a car that runs on compost. Step 2: Create the car. We’ve already compl…

Your assumption that the odds of abiogenesis is given by `~1/2^n, where n is the complexity in bits' is utterly, completely false. Statistical mechanical entropy and information theoretical entropy ('complexity in bits') are not the same quantities! But even if they were, your expression would still be incorrect because living system are definitionally not at equilibrium - so equilibrium statistical mechanics (whose…

> Statistical mechanical entropy and information theoretical entropy ('complexity in bits') are not the same quantities!

This assertion (whether thermodynamic entropy and information theoretic entropy are equivalent) is an ongoing controversy open to debate - it shouldn't be stated as fact. See wikipedia for (a summary of) both sides of the story: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entropy_in_thermodynamics_and_... (specifically the #Theoretical_relationship and #Criticism sections)

Re: There Have Probably Been Aliens

#112
post #9

"In other words, given what we now know about the number and orbital positions of the galaxy’s planets, the degree of pessimism required to doubt the existence, at some point in time, of an advanced extraterrestrial civilization borders on the irrational." This is terribly silly. It reminds me of the Onion talks: "Step 1: Devise an idea to create a car that runs on compost. Step 2: Create the car. We’ve already compl…

One of my favorite explanations and counterpoints come from Neil deGrasse Tyson: It took modern astrophysics to determine the origin of the chemical elements. We observe stars (and) we know what goes on in their center. They explode, laying bare their contents. And what we have discovered is that the elements of the periodic table -that which we are made of- derive from the actions of stars that have manufactured the…

The only paradox in Fermi's paradox is the discarding of UFOs as possible ET manifestation

Re: There Have Probably Been Aliens

#113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, we've certainly drilled more than 12 meters. :-P (Note the decimal point: 12.262km; I just converted to km to keep it consistent with the other measurements I cited) Could be confusing if you're used to the inverse comma/period from what we use in the US (comma=thousands, period=decimal).

Would be far less confusing if you'd just written "~12km" and "~11km". The meters add little to the point you're trying to make.

Well, that's probably true, but it was late and I thought the higher precision would help add to my point. Too late to fix it now, though. :-P

Re: There Have Probably Been Aliens

#114

I'll agree that aliens might exist far away from us in space &|time, but so what? I'd argue there's no practical difference between being alone in the universe and our local galaxies.

Why do you believe there is non difference ? Do you believe they didn't vist earth yet ?

Re: There Have Probably Been Aliens

#115
post #45
post #13

No they have not been any aliens until proven so... Science requires a theory and experimental validation. The existence of aliens has been postulated by a crazy monk that also invented the concept of monads. It is much more metaphysics (religious thinking) than physics. It strikes me as odd that most of flawed science is coming with the same flaws as religious thinking.

> Science requires a theory and experimental validation. You'd be surprised. That's 19th century thinking about science, and not really how science works in practice most of the time.

Well, that is at least what made relativity and quantum mechanic successful.

And yes there has been a lot of flawed science in the XIXth I am aware of it ... like the theory of the ether that Einstein dispelled through experimentation, or the superiority of some "races", or the morpho-psychology...

Re: There Have Probably Been Aliens

#116

The universe is so big, that I think it's very likely that somewhere out there are, there are many other intelligent civilisations, in distant galaxies–but so far away we'll never be able to visit them, never be able to communicate with them, we'll likely never even know of their existence (not in a million years–and I mean that literally.) In the long-run (of millions of years), the two most likely outcomes for huma…

Why do you believe it is surely extinct by now ? Why do you believe that colonisation of the galaxy means eliminating all other advanced civilisations and life form ? Are you russian ;)

Your reasonning is based on many assumptions. Look at us. When did we discover how to fly ? When did we landed on the moon ? Human evolution in science and technology mastering is evolving exponentially. Things can happen much faster than we thought.

Another question is why is the UFO phenomenon consistently discarded in the reasoning ?

Re: There Have Probably Been Aliens

#117

I can't recommend "The Vital Question" by Nick Lane enough for people who are really interested in the question of life elsewhere. It does such a wonderful job of show how mechanically "life" can be started as a way of simply reacting chemicals to a lower energy state. It neatly ties together biochemistry and geochemistry in a very plausible (and testable) way. Given the analysis, I would expect that bacteria and arc…

I read his book 'power sex suicide'. Here is a good summary:

http://ronbarak.tumblr.com/post/25996121029/life-is-it-inevi...

In the book he expanded on what was needed to make the jump to complex life and his opinion on how unlikely it was. He made a case for how only a relatively small time window was available for it to happen at all.

I second the rec!

Re: There Have Probably Been Aliens

#118
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not about how probable are these conditions but given these conditions how probable is that life will appear.

It seems that the probability of life appearing (in some form), given the ideal conditions, is higher than that of obtainiing the ideal conditions.

Phantom downvotes. Awesome. Don't really care about "karma", but thought this was a place for discussion.

Anyway, what reason do we have to believe that Earth is special 2X? That we happened to have the right conditions plus some randomness occurred against all odds that gave rise to life? Why is that a rational proposition?

We know the chemical elements and processes that give rise to life, and we know why Earth is a suitable place. I suggest that, given the right (e.g. Earth-like) conditions, formation of life is not only more likely than the existence of the conditions, but the formation of life may even be likely overall. Hawking has expressed this possibility. [0]

There is fossil evidence suggesting that some forms of life existed on Earth as few as 500 million short years after it was formed. So, what are the odds that one astronomically improbable event (creation of a hospitable environment) was followed in such a short period by another alleged astronomically improbable event (abiogenesis)?

[0] http://www.hawking.org.uk/life-in-the-universe.html

Re: There Have Probably Been Aliens

#119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think what will really help us to get at a better estimate is to answer the question whether there exists life in our solar system that evolved independently of that on Earth. That's definitely the big question. But you left out the elephant in the room: is there life right here on Earth that's evolved independently? Abiogenesis doesn't simply halt after it's achieved its "goal". Perhaps we take the common-origin h…

Fascinating, thanks for pointing this out! Discovering a new kind of life on Earth that has coexisted with us without being noticed would be a huge event of course, and it would probably challenge what we regard as life in a general way. This would be good stuff for a science fiction story as well.

It does make a good sci fi story: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00M64A8EG/

Re: There Have Probably Been Aliens

#120
post #9

"In other words, given what we now know about the number and orbital positions of the galaxy’s planets, the degree of pessimism required to doubt the existence, at some point in time, of an advanced extraterrestrial civilization borders on the irrational." This is terribly silly. It reminds me of the Onion talks: "Step 1: Devise an idea to create a car that runs on compost. Step 2: Create the car. We’ve already compl…

Your assumption that the odds of abiogenesis is given by `~1/2^n, where n is the complexity in bits' is utterly, completely false. Statistical mechanical entropy and information theoretical entropy ('complexity in bits') are not the same quantities! But even if they were, your expression would still be incorrect because living system are definitionally not at equilibrium - so equilibrium statistical mechanics (whose…

I suspect that life is not uncommon in the universe, but my bet is that multicellular animal life is rare.
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