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Twitter Is Betting Everything on Jack Dorsey

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Re: Twitter Is Betting Everything on Jack Dorsey

#51
post #27

> what the company is best at, which is being the platform where people weigh in on live events. This is odd to me, since from what I see, the people who are most engaged with twitter don't use it for live events at all. They use it for jokes.

Why not both! :)

I know quite a few people who use it for making jokes about live events. The other day my wife's mocking of the new BBC drama got quoted by the Mail's TV reviewer.

Re: Twitter Is Betting Everything on Jack Dorsey

#52
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This mismatch between expectation and reality is why so many internet companies "die". It's not that their business model failed, necessarily, it's that management, or the board, has set expectations for growth that defy reason. The company then has to embark on an ever-more-doomed set of initiatives to try to meet growth targets, which inevitably fail. Many companies could still be thriving today (e.g., Yahoo), if n…

If you push 10 companies for reason defying growth and 9 of them die but the 1 survivor grows enormously is it worth it? Maybe?

It's probably worth it for a VC who has a diverse portfolio, but as a founder you really have to think about what you really want.

Do you prefer a tiny chance of becoming the next Facebook, or a good chance of building a stable business?

Do you prefer to fail 9 companies before finally founding the one that will have "reason defying growth" (or not) rather than build one solid business?

I'd say it depends on your character, but it's important to know what you want rather than blindly following Paul Graham and other VC prophets.

Re: Twitter Is Betting Everything on Jack Dorsey

#53
post #10

Can't companies and products simply hit a natural limit? There are inherent limitations to any given "thing" and perhaps Twitter has found its own terminal velocity.

Absolutely. Another sign twitter has reached their natural limit is that they are spinning the exclusion of links towards character count as a new "feature".

Re: Twitter Is Betting Everything on Jack Dorsey

#54
post #48
post #2

> And, by nearly every metric, he had achieved remarkable success. Under his tenure, the company had grown from 300 employees to around 4,100. Eurgh. I never understand how the number of employees you have can be a success metric. By that logic, becoming more efficient would be a bad thing.

What do 4,100 employees even do at Twitter? It's not that complicated.

To be fair, it must be pretty complicated to actually keep it running. Then you've got all the security, spam detection, designers, UX people, search engine, multi-lingual features. And then you've got the overhead of any medium-sized business - marketing, PR, sales, accounting, admin, HR (have I missed anything?). I guess it does add up.

But (so as not to contradict myself) just having all those people doesn't count as an achievement. It's just a cost of doing business that you want to keep as low as possible.

Re: Twitter Is Betting Everything on Jack Dorsey

#55
post #6

Twitter has an incredibly powerful brand and appeal. How many companies can say they triggered revolutions? Yet it's puzzling how much it fails to improve its basic product, 1 year in Dorsey's comeback. On mobile, the search/explore screens are mostly irrelevant. On desktop, they could position themselves as quasi TV channels with live content update. Yes, they lost the social wars and that's fine. They won the media…

> How many companies can say they triggered revolutions? United Fruit Company, British Petroleum?

> > How many companies can say they triggered revolutions?

> British Petroleum?

For those not familiar with Iranian history: the first revolution that happened on Twitter was the Green Revolution in Iran (2009)[0][1].

If you trace British Petroleum (BP) all the way back to its roots, it began as the Anglo-Persian Oil Company in 1908. That company's formation was the basis for the series of political upheavals and revolutions that resulted in the current political leadership in Iran today[2], which in turn was the basis for the 2009 Green Revolution.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Iranian_presidential_elec...

[1] Named the 'Green Revolution' in the long Persian tradition of naming their revolutions after colors ('white', 'red', 'green', 'black')

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Persian_Oil_Company#Nati...

Re: Twitter Is Betting Everything on Jack Dorsey

#56
Let me quickly summarize every thread about twitter: 1) "Twitter in the old days was great. They are ruining everything now!" 2) "Twitter has 0 revenue! How can they be worth so much? It deserves to die." "Actually, they have 0 profit" "Oops! Point still stands!" 3) "But what do all the employees even DO all day?" 4) "I stopped caring about Twitter when they closed off their API" 5) "The world needs Twitter!" "No it doesn't!"

Re: Twitter Is Betting Everything on Jack Dorsey

#58
post #48
post #2

> And, by nearly every metric, he had achieved remarkable success. Under his tenure, the company had grown from 300 employees to around 4,100. Eurgh. I never understand how the number of employees you have can be a success metric. By that logic, becoming more efficient would be a bad thing.

What do 4,100 employees even do at Twitter? It's not that complicated.

They show each other powerpoint presentations.

Re: Twitter Is Betting Everything on Jack Dorsey

#59
post #48
post #2

> And, by nearly every metric, he had achieved remarkable success. Under his tenure, the company had grown from 300 employees to around 4,100. Eurgh. I never understand how the number of employees you have can be a success metric. By that logic, becoming more efficient would be a bad thing.

What do 4,100 employees even do at Twitter? It's not that complicated.

The backend systems for Twitter - advertising, data analysis, spam prevention, infrastructure etc is vastly more complex what you see in a feed of 140 characters.

Plus sales and marketing budgets are huge.

Whether any of these systems or human resource needs are required to be running at that scale is probably the question hitting Jack directly in the face. I think the ballsiest move he could make would be to shrink it all down to core services. But Wall Street would shit itself with that sort of contraction.

Re: Twitter Is Betting Everything on Jack Dorsey

#60
Twitter has been mismanaged over the years. With FB, the buck stops with Zuck, but at Twitter, the politics between the cofounders has meant there has been no long-term strategic leadership. Twitter has got away with a lot of stuff over the years because it was perceived to be cool, but these days, it's more Henry Wrinkler than The Fonz.
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