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Moving Forward on Basic Income

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Re: Moving Forward on Basic Income

#631
post #60

So, a question for the BI fans: I've seen it said repeatedly that BI will save us money (or at least, not be so outrageously expensive) in part because we can eliminate existing welfare programs. "Just cut a single check, no more overhead from several agencies", they say. But riddle me this: what do you do when someone on BI has a financial emergency or, as will happen with some regularity, just flat-out blows all th…

As with current welfare programs: you get a check every , end of story. People are free to make bad decisions and get themselves evicted, but those situations will be because someone is incapable of managing their money, not because they're incapable of making it. Likewise, landlords will be more willing to give people a chance because they know you're not going to 'lose your job' so to speak. That said, the idea of…

Just because someone isn't going to lose their "job" (BI), what's to say it will end up in the landlord's hand? They can still default on payments. I wonder if signing over all/some of the BI to the landlord so it goes direct could be a good upgrade. It comes with the creditworthiness of the state (in california that is less than 100% mind you).

Thoughts on the risk of someone not paying their BI to the landlord?

Re: Moving Forward on Basic Income

#632

What amazes me in this discussion about BI is that most people don't seem to realize that systems similar to BI have already been tried in Europe, and that they didn't work. I come from the Netherlands, which has always had unemployment benefits. Nowadays you get those only if you meet a bunch of strict conditions but it hasn't always been so tough. In the early eighties, there were almost no checks whatsoever. The r…

What I've found here on HN is that there is an extremely large amount of "wishful projection" and selection bias, in that many people here are young and promising entrepreneurs-in-training, and they believe that basic income will allow them to work on their startup dream without having to worry about paying the bills.

While that may be true, they fail to realize that they are in the extreme minority of actually-motivated people who would make a good use-case of basic income.

The vast majority of the world will fall into other categories, such as non-productivity or black markets. Not everyone wants to go build the next great app, folks!

I personally believe that this is the most important decision that humans must make over the next half-century, as we automate nearly everything and have little need for cheap human labor:

What do you do with all of those idle hands and minds?

In my opinion, if you allow the masses to do absolutely nothing while providing them the necessities for life, society will collapse upon itself over time, as people vote themselves more and more benefits for doing less and less work, while ostracizing the working and ownership classes. Question is only how many generations it takes.

My favorite example is what happens when you put rats into such a utopia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Z760XNy4VM

IMHO, humans are no better than they (possibly far worse, in fact), and I see no reason to believe how anything else will happen over the course of several generations of "free stuff".

Humans without responsibilities and accountability = chaos. Tell me it hasn't already begun.

Re: Moving Forward on Basic Income

#633

I wonder how to test controlling for reciprocity. I.e., If I receive a basic income as part of a pilot/experiment I will feel tempted to "give back" somehow, while if basic income is a baseline all humans receive, that reciprocity will not be present. How can you design an experiment so that somehow people don't feel they are receiving money in an extraordinary way, but rather that's just part of how the world works.…

>If I receive a basic income as part of a pilot/experiment I will feel tempted to "give back" somehow, while if basic income is a baseline all humans receive, that reciprocity will not be present. How can you design an experiment so that somehow people don't feel they are receiving money in an extraordinary way, but rather that's just part of how the world works FWIW, excepting the actually lazy (which I think compri…

It comes down to how much Basic Income one can expect to collect. I don't consider myself extraordinarily lazy, and thus do my part working to earn a comfortable living. Really though I'm the type who hasn't found my "dream job", so working 9-5, 40 hour weeks, is something I don't particularly enjoy, and it sucks the life out of me.

Existing social assistance where I am doesn't even cover the cheapest rent in the city, requiring you to live with at least two others who are also on welfare in a studio apartment that deserves to be condemned as being unsuitable for human habitation. So long as "basic income" means bottom-of-the-barrel minimum income that requires you to rent in the slums with roommates, while barely having enough money to eat... I will remain employed. If "basic income" ever provides more than that, I could see myself being tempted into joining the ranks. Particularly if you are allowed to keep income from a part-time minimum wage job without any clawbacks to the basic income.

Re: Moving Forward on Basic Income

#634
post #60

So, a question for the BI fans: I've seen it said repeatedly that BI will save us money (or at least, not be so outrageously expensive) in part because we can eliminate existing welfare programs. "Just cut a single check, no more overhead from several agencies", they say. But riddle me this: what do you do when someone on BI has a financial emergency or, as will happen with some regularity, just flat-out blows all th…

i dislike basic income, here the concept defined by the term

that said, similarly, i think economics will be dismantled by means of capitalism without the need to acquire capital

as for bi and welfare, i consider the two completely separate

i think bi and welfare should coexist until one eventually renders the other unnecessary

in which case the notion of eliminating programs will be, in hindsight, correctly assumed

Re: Moving Forward on Basic Income

#635
post #60

So, a question for the BI fans: I've seen it said repeatedly that BI will save us money (or at least, not be so outrageously expensive) in part because we can eliminate existing welfare programs. "Just cut a single check, no more overhead from several agencies", they say. But riddle me this: what do you do when someone on BI has a financial emergency or, as will happen with some regularity, just flat-out blows all th…

The system does currently say "tough shit" once resources have been exhausted. They just come in a bunch of different forms, and are sometimes incredibly difficult to deal with. I got somewhat involved in activism and support work for homeless folks a few years ago, and it was eye-opening. So many of the chronically homeless are mentally ill; and so many of them find it impossible to navigate the system to receive benefits because of their mental illness. The process is horrifically complex; when I tried to help folks get through it, I also occasionally found it impossible to figure out which benefits someone qualified for and how to apply for them. This was especially problematic for people who'd been kicked out of their family home as a teenager, due to being gay or other conflicts, and had never had a government-issued ID.

So, I've come around to a basic income, especially for the people who have the hardest time making it through each month. The people I know who have had success getting out of homelessness did so only after they had some sort of steady income (whether that was a part-time job, or getting some sort of cash benefit from the state). Almost every person I've worked with had been through the system a few times; they'd been provided housing one or more times, but had lost it due to being unable to keep up with the requirements (regular paperwork, office visits, etc.). They'd had food stamps occasionally, but also found it hard to keep on top of the process to continue the service or restart it after having found some short-term employment that disqualified them.

Honestly, the more I've interacted with the current support services in place, the more confident I am saying that it has the opposite of its intended consequence. I think it further entrenches people in cycles of poverty. And, not because of the bullshit GOP rhetoric about pulling yourself up by your bootstraps or whatever. It didn't take long for me to realize that if there is no support infrastructure for the most in need, it is equivalent to saying, "If they can't support themselves, they should just die." because that's what happens when people completely fall through the cracks of the current system, which happens more than most people realize.

Anyway, what I'm trying to say is that you're arguing in support of keeping a system that doesn't exist. There's already a point where the system says, "Fuck off and die." And, from what research I've seen, and from what I've experienced among the handful of people I've been around as they've gotten out of homelessness and began to be members of society on an equal footing again, is that the most sure-fire way to help someone out of poverty is to insure they have a steady income that they can plan their life around. Mysterious and arbitrary benefits increase the uncertainty of being in poverty; not knowing if you'll still have food next month, or not knowing if any given medical problem will be covered, leads to lots of sub-optimal decision-making.

Basic Income won't solve everything; mental illness is terrible and often untreatable, addiction is a tough problem, etc. But, of all the options, I'm reasonably confident it's the least damaging.

Re: Moving Forward on Basic Income

#636

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'll find there are two voices for BI, the liberal and the liberatian. The liberal would prefer to keep universal healthcare and food programs and put cash on top, making the total distribution to the poor larger. The liberatian would prefer to simply move the complex paternalistic safety net into a simpler cash payment which doesn't disincentivize work while not increasing it's size. As an aside, if you pay attent…

"It's going to be cheaper to make sure people have bread and vaccinations despite themselves than it's going to be to solve the resulting issues later." The limited research so far seems to show people generally make good decisions when given money without stipulation, and the idea we need to tell them how to spend their money "despite themselves" is probably very misguided. Of course, more research is needed, which…

People can make good decisions, but one health care provider (e.g. the government, in most countries) can provide health care and purchase supplies more efficiently than individuals can.

Specifically, the American system is flawed because 'shopping around' between different providers whose sole purpose for existing is to make and maximize profits just results in you picking someone who's taking the least advantage of you. A single payer, for example in Canada, you go to any doctor, clinic, hospital, pharmacy, etc. and you get the thing. The health authority pays a fixed amount to the provider (and they make a good living, make no mistake), and the health authority attempts to maximize the value it gets from every dollar without compromising patient care, and following the mandate that everyone should have the same access to care.

Re: Moving Forward on Basic Income

#637
post #60

So, a question for the BI fans: I've seen it said repeatedly that BI will save us money (or at least, not be so outrageously expensive) in part because we can eliminate existing welfare programs. "Just cut a single check, no more overhead from several agencies", they say. But riddle me this: what do you do when someone on BI has a financial emergency or, as will happen with some regularity, just flat-out blows all th…

> But riddle me this: what do you do when someone on BI has a financial emergency or, as will happen with some regularity, just flat-out blows all their money and now can't afford rent and/or food? Do you tell them "tough shit, you've exhausted all your social safety nets" or are there safety nets below BI, essentially recreating the welfare programs previously destroyed? If so, how do you prevent fraud without a department following up on Joe's twelfth "my car broke down" case of the year?

I think you're comparing BI to a different standard than the existing programs.

The question isn't "Is BI perfect?", but rather "Is BI better than what we have today?"

The exact scenario you laid out can easily happen with the various programs that exist today. If BI reduces (but not eliminates) those scenarios, that would be a worthwhile improvement.

Re: Moving Forward on Basic Income

#638

This is probably where my ignorance of socio-economics will shine, so please bear with me. In all the articles I've come across regarding universal basic income, I've never seen the idea of a flat tax rate mentioned (e.g. everybody, everything, 20%). It seems to me that it could work for the same reasons UBI is supposed to, i.e. reduce overheads among other things, while in this case also potentially reducing the ris…

If I understand your proposal correctly, you propose to

  * set the income tax to a flat 20%
  * provide no (or very little) universal basic income
  * Increase freely available benefits
Addressing the tax issue specifically - you propose the benefits are:

  * Reduce overheads
  * Reduce risk for abuse and manipulation
I don't think a flat tax rate will achieve the things you want it to.

A progressive tax rate doesn't add any administrative overhead at all, it's just a different way of deciding how much tax you pay once you've correctly totaled your income.

Right now, I see 3 general categories for 'abuse and manipulation' in taxes - fraudulently misrepresenting your income, fraudulently misrepresenting deductions you may qualify for, or legally structuring income and behavior to pay much less taxes than otherwise expected (i.e., finding 'loopholes').

Your primary way of combating those abuses would be to simplify the deductions people can take. To a lesser extent, you can also simplify or refactor the different definitions of income.

A flat 20% tax rate means decreased government revenue overall, lower taxes for the rich, and higher taxes for the middle-class and poor. Most people would consider that to be a failure on every point.

Re: Moving Forward on Basic Income

#639

One thing I didn't see mentioned in the post was an attempt to understand macro economic forces are affected by BI. I understand there are limitations to what can be studied in a controlled environment, and teasing out cause and effect of macro forces can be very, very difficult, but any sort of R&D done at a company normally focuses on reducing the largest risks first, to determine if the project should move forward…

How basic income affects macroeconomic conditions (inflation, housing prices, demand for labor, etc.) is really important to figure out, but it’s honestly beyond the scope of this study. Unless BI is implemented on a macro level, we can't measure the macro-level effects. We’re focusing on the individual-level effects as a first step, but we'll be looking at more than happiness and well-being. We're using the pilot to…

I wonder if you could get some interesting data about macro effects by giving BI to a whole neighborhood within Oakland, preferably one that historically has had low levels of migration and shops locally. Instead of sampling randomly from the population of Oakland, universally give everyone within a neighborhood basic income (or run a parallel study doing so).

That'd answer some of the biggest questions I have about BI. What happens to rents & housing prices when everyone has an extra $X to spend? What happens to prices in neighborhood shops? To what degree are people willing to travel to avoid high prices? What happens to the social fabric when everyone is richer? Do people engage more with their community when they don't have to worry about basic financial survival? Or do they isolate themselves and enjoy their new toys? If people choose not to work, what else do they spend their time doing, and how does that effect the community?

At the very least, you'd get some really great data about elasticity of rents, housing prices, and local goods which I bet economists would love to have.

Re: Moving Forward on Basic Income

#640
post #478

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally, I'd hope the system would absolutely tell them "tough shit". There's got to be a line where the safety net gives out, because someone is too expensive to help. That's where family and charity hopefully take over. At the same time, I think your instinct is right, and it's something I've never heard mentioned before. It's almost inevitably that there'll then be the "food security" fund, and the "housing gua…

"Personally, I'd hope the system would absolutely tell them "tough shit". There's got to be a line where the safety net gives out, because someone is too expensive to help." But see, that's why his is a trick question ... If the answer is "tough shit" then it's a concession that implementing BI (or anything like it) is simply adjusting the "tough shit dial" to a relatively different value. There's still a benefits ce…

> At that point it becomes difficult to justify any particular point on the tough shit dial - especially when todays tough shit was, four generations ago, essentially heaven on earth.

I don't see how this follows. You are arguing that perfect is the enemy of good? This tough shit dial be as low as is acceptable fiscally and to the contemporary standards of society.

> It's all of the bullshit in-between that is totally unworkable - both practically and theoretically. His question - and your answer - illustrate that very well.

By this logic do current US welfare programs count as the "bullshit in-between?" Those are very much workable practically in the sense that they are currently in effect and are not planned to be dismantled. For that matter doesn't any level of government support for disadvantaged citizens count as the "bullshit in-between?"

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