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Peter Thiel on the Global Economy, Technology, Artificial Intelligence [video]

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Re: Peter Thiel on the Global Economy, Technology, Artificial Intelligence [video]

#81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The average IQ will always be 100. It will also always be perfectly normally distributed. Because it's designed that way. http://www.michna.com/iq.htm > In truth the IQ is a purely statistical measure. It has no direct relation to brain performance, is not proportional to it, and doesn't even have any linear or otherwise straightforward relation to it. The only thing you can say is that somebody with a higher IQ will…

> The average IQ will always be 100 Except (and this counters GP post also): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flynn_effect Our IQs are steadily increasing. Or so it appears ... With equivalent tests to those administered a few years ago scores are steadily increasing. It's not necessarily that we're getting smarter of course - far more likely to be the case that these tests become the "definition" of intelligence and ou…

I think the point is that IQ is always normalized to 100, so that "average" is 100% of the time "average" for the current population. Maybe a 100 IQ person now has more intellectual horsepower than a 100 IQ person from 200 years ago, but that doesn't have any effect on what is being said.

Re: Peter Thiel on the Global Economy, Technology, Artificial Intelligence [video]

#82
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds like it's still a good problem for us to keep working on then :)

I'm just glad our parents didn't develop the office stapler to perfection instead of working on more relevant issues.

I wish they had spent more time on scalable anonymous election systems, but I guess we'll get there eventually.

Re: Peter Thiel on the Global Economy, Technology, Artificial Intelligence [video]

#83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The average IQ will always be 100 Except (and this counters GP post also): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flynn_effect Our IQs are steadily increasing. Or so it appears ... With equivalent tests to those administered a few years ago scores are steadily increasing. It's not necessarily that we're getting smarter of course - far more likely to be the case that these tests become the "definition" of intelligence and ou…

I think the point is that IQ is always normalized to 100, so that "average" is 100% of the time "average" for the current population. Maybe a 100 IQ person now has more intellectual horsepower than a 100 IQ person from 200 years ago, but that doesn't have any effect on what is being said.

> a 100 IQ person now has more intellectual horsepower than a 100 IQ person from 200 years ago

That's not what I meant. I meant that "scores" were increasing - which is the reason for normalisation against present population.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient#Flynn_ef...

IQ test scores have been rising at an average rate of around three IQ points per decade

So IQ in absolute terms has been increasing steadily - but this doesn't necessarily tell us anything about whether intelligence has been increasing or not.

Re: Peter Thiel on the Global Economy, Technology, Artificial Intelligence [video]

#84
post #73
post #7

OK, the big theme here is "innovation has slowed down, but this is being masked by all the activity around computers". So let's take a look at that. Way too many smart people are tied up doing rather banal things with computers, or in finance. That's capitalism in action. What isn't being worked on? Thiel is bothered by lack of progress in medicine. Medicine is now working on really hard problems, most of which are c…

> Medicine is now working on really hard problems It's not about "what" is being worked on, but how. I think he 's referring to the lack of major centrally-planned projects like the US space program, or the LHC. I think its true that the way scientific funds are being allocated favors short term but unambitious goals. As an example, both the BRAIN initiative and the human brain project have set rather vague goals tha…

And what could those giant steps be? Going to the moon was conceptually easy, if very difficult engineering-wise. Like, the moon is there we are here, let's go be there instead.

What could you want for the brain? Mind-machine interfaces (MMI)? We already have those [0]. We have done the 'moon-shots' in neuro already, and in a lot of bio in general too. But you want your own MMI or your own miracle of medicine? Well, I want a vacation to the moon too, but that ain't happening.

The moon-shots in medicine have already happened, they just aren't cheap yet.

[0] http://fortune.com/2016/01/06/bionic-eye-monash/

Re: Peter Thiel on the Global Economy, Technology, Artificial Intelligence [video]

#85
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Software that everyone in the world can use simultaneously Our parents invented the Internet too ...

That's true. Internet is what makes this possible, not social media. Social Media is like a skin on an internet that was developed when gen x was in diapers.

> Social Media is like a skin

Which ironically is what our parents called the "Application layer" when they were designing it ;)

Re: Peter Thiel on the Global Economy, Technology, Artificial Intelligence [video]

#86
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't judge people with "what if they did X". Many of the immigrants who arrive to a western countries have antithetical cultural views. Do you find it appropriate to tell them to take a hike? Isn't it better to act as grown ups instead?

> You can't judge people with "what if they did X". What I'm saying is that at some point, someone's behavior will become toxic to "your group" (not the whole US - here, the "tech community" however you want to define that) and then they get asked to leave. This is actually the mature thing to do, to part ways, as opposed to escalating conflict where the same thing happens in the end but the participants are left blo…

No. The mature thing would be for you to part ways when in situations you disapprove of, not try to derail others' conversations about unrelated topics simply because you disagree with their politics.

You have a problem with Theil? Don't take funding from him. Or if you're exceptionally aggrieved then don't engage with Paypal, Facebook, Tesla, SpaceX or any other companies he's had an instrumental effect on as an employee or investor. More rational would be to simply put your energy into positively supporting a candidate you do approve of.

Re: Peter Thiel on the Global Economy, Technology, Artificial Intelligence [video]

#87
"From 1982 to 2007, that 25 year period, NYC was the world center for globalization, moving money around to do things we already know how to do. Now from 2008 to Present the center is Silicon Valley. Moving money around to do things we don't yet know how to do."

Re: Peter Thiel on the Global Economy, Technology, Artificial Intelligence [video]

#88
post #7

OK, the big theme here is "innovation has slowed down, but this is being masked by all the activity around computers". So let's take a look at that. Way too many smart people are tied up doing rather banal things with computers, or in finance. That's capitalism in action. What isn't being worked on? Thiel is bothered by lack of progress in medicine. Medicine is now working on really hard problems, most of which are c…

One of the hardest, but also the most pressing issues is regarding population growth. Should we artificially limit population growth? Can it be done in a way that isn't forceful, but perhaps with the right incentives? Should humanity, as a global society push for quality over quantity in reproduction? Is basic income still feasible in this scenario? It's an ethical and ideological mess and frankly, it'll require some…

"One of the hardest, but also the most pressing issues is regarding population growth."

According to whom and on what grounds? The population is a resource. Having more people is having more human potential to throw at problems. There is enough information out there with plenty of arguments on population sustainability and our planet is nowhere close to its limit!

Re: Peter Thiel on the Global Economy, Technology, Artificial Intelligence [video]

#89
post #49

This video is oddly pessimistic, but to me, Thiel is overlooking where the greatest advances are yet to come. The advances in computers are advances in processing power and connectivity. Every industry uses both of these elements to succeed. Now that computers are reaching a sort of peak development, there is going to be a dispensing of the capabilities that computers offer into other industries. Its hard for me to p…

Thiel would agree with your main statements.

He's said before that he's not particularly worried about advancements in computers continuing to unfold and the potential for the Net to become ever more like a planet wide nervous system with many more use cases coming into existence.

His complaint is that if progress does not occur in fields outside of computation there will be stagnation. No amount of computational intelligence can mine asteroids or convert the Sahara to arable land without doing something with the material world.

You can have rapid improvements in specific technologies in the midst of a general decline or a stagnation. For example; surely there a great deal of improvement in weapons systems during the middle ages. The stirrup, the crossbow, the gun, the cannon. Most of the advantages of those technologies didn't really help the average person's situation.

This is not a hypothetical. While there was enormous increases in computational power in the past three - four decades median wages have not budged. People were able to consume more primarily due to debt.

We ought to question whether computers will be enough to raise living standards in the developed world in the short to medium term (his main contention I think).

Re: Peter Thiel on the Global Economy, Technology, Artificial Intelligence [video]

#90
post #7

OK, the big theme here is "innovation has slowed down, but this is being masked by all the activity around computers". So let's take a look at that. Way too many smart people are tied up doing rather banal things with computers, or in finance. That's capitalism in action. What isn't being worked on? Thiel is bothered by lack of progress in medicine. Medicine is now working on really hard problems, most of which are c…

Far from progress occurring in medicine many things are going backwards. They coined Eroom's Law to describe it (Moore's law, but the wrong way). The literature on this is not very appealing to journalists. That's why coffee is the cure for, and cause of, everything.

Some answers to the question:

> What isn't being worked on?

In the West there is no real effort going into nuclear R&D or, you know, constructing actual power plants. I think in the US the last nuclear plant was two decades ago. In the UK I don't think they teach nuclear engineering anymore. The Chinese are now to build and maintain their systems! Germany... France is an exception I think.

There are no new types of infrastructure e.g. no personal transit systems, no waste disposal pneumatics. We sure do have a lot of broken roads nowadays though. Road technology hasn't had a game changer in thousands of years (somebody will pounce on this but you know what I mean, it's not like we're expecting Blade Runner), it's still horrendously expensive and difficult as ever. Did I mention there's ugly tangles of black cables hanging above our heads? Maglev exists and Japan is giving it away for free but there appears no will to use it.

With the recent exception of SpaceX, aerospace hasn't really taken off for decades. We were supposed to have Moon Hotels and political tension with moon miners by now. The kind of scale you saw in 2001: A Space Odyssey was seriously expected to occur but instead the whole effort was on the verge of dying out until very recently. In three years it will be half a century since the moon landings. That is quite a while. The quick fire explanations won't do.

There has been no major tangible medicinal advantage to a large number of people from the discovery of DNA let alone the Human Genome Project. I know this one makes me sound bombastic, but come on, tell me how I'm wrong. I was at the doctor the other day and asked him whether having my DNA record would help him out. He said not really and that it's still better to examine my family medical history. Lots of press coverage isn't progress.

In materials technology good insulation is still very expensive. You can get great insulation but only for great money. If aerogels came down in price by 10x that would really lift the bar.

Energy Storage is just... A century with no major breakthroughs.

Biotech is a one horse town called Monsanto. GM is banned in many countries.

Animals. They are great, but they are not becoming more interesting. Back in the day people created all manner of breeds of cats and dogs. I don't see breeders or gene splicers coming up with freaky or cool pets for us. Really more people ought to be outraged. Remember micropigs? It seems they might not be real.

Freeman Dyson's vision is neglected so far. The last thing is people. This is more subjective but I believe people have become immeasurably more boring. Look at old photos of people. They had character. They fought eels, took trips to jungles. Everybody was Ron Swanson and it was fucking awesome.

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