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Skin in the Game – chapter drafts by Nassim Taleb

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Re: Skin in the Game – chapter drafts by Nassim Taleb

#91
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if even a small percent of people become anti GMO, then GMOs will die out Not if they are a measurably better product the won't. If GMOs can offer food that is significantly tastier and/or significantly cheaper then they will do just fine. I'm not a big fan of GMOs per se. but offer me something I actually want and I'll happily buy your product

I think the problem here is one level of abstraction further out. It's not whether anti-GMO types can keep you and I from buying GMO products -- indeed, it's unlikely that GMOs are going to have much to offer western middle class consumers. The big kicker is the effect this battle have in the third world, where GMOs hold the potential of a much larger impact (see eg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_rice ).

Precisely. There can be many merits to a better supply chain, which are invisible to the end consumer.

To be clear, there is nothing wrong with manufacturers selectively labeling their supply chain methods. There is a problem with forcing them all to, when there is no evidence to support it. Even with nutritional labels, consumers have a right to know what is in the good for making decisions based on health reasons.

Re: Skin in the Game – chapter drafts by Nassim Taleb

#92
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where are you getting those numbers from? The most reliable numbers I could find where in this WSJ article: http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB118429436433665637 which claims that while his fund may have under-performed other funds over its lifetime and suffered a couple of years of modest losses during a period of stable growth, it did make massive returns during the dot.com crash which was kind of the funds raison d'etr…

Only LPs have true access to fund returns but there are a lot of examples of falsehoods being claimed by Taleb et al; http://www.businessinsider.com/wait-before-you-invest-in-nas... Plus the fact that he started an new fund in 2009 that essentially was relying on hyperinflation to make their returns; http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB124380234786770027#mod=testMod

That seems to be an error on GQ's part, not Taleb's.

See http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2009/06/30/the-taleb-g...

Re: Skin in the Game – chapter drafts by Nassim Taleb

#93
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fooled by randomness is his best book, but it's probably getting replaced by Robert Frank's book "Success and Luck" on my recommendation list for that topic. It's just a good reminder that you might be luckier than you think and that skill doesn't fully explain the successful achievements. Black Swan is seriously hard to read through; his arrogance is insufferable. The point he's making is fairly self evident; the bo…

What so you think of this one star review of success and luck (from Aaron): http://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/cr/0691167400/?filterByStar=one_... I did not analyze it carefully, but he tears the book to bits.

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Re: Skin in the Game – chapter drafts by Nassim Taleb

#94
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I once had a chance to meet him in person when he happened to be in town, and I was surprised by how pleasant, friendly and even soft-spoken he was, given how arrogant his writing can be. I suppose it riles up more critics and sells more books that way.

I wouldn't imagine he would be hostile to you unless he suspected you were a charlatan.

What? He is a Christian himself.

Re: Skin in the Game – chapter drafts by Nassim Taleb

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And a good way to fight that is to form a stubborn minority that only eats GMO food.

that won't work in the EU which have have a much more sceptic view on these things. Their principle is the direct opposite of the US. If there is just the slightest risk that something is dangerous they forbid it. In the US they only forbid things if there is overwhelmingly evidence that points towards it being dangerous.

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Re: Skin in the Game – chapter drafts by Nassim Taleb

#96

I look forward to reading his book. His writing style is good but not great. I'm surprised about a lot of accusation of arrogance,etc... From what I have read his arrogance, might be misconceived as he is willingness to call out anybody on what he perceived as their BS. We need more people to call others out on their BS. (US elections, MSM, cnbc, Mosanto, wall street...) Anybody that open comes out and says Saudi Ara…

The accusation of arrogance is especially ironic coming from the HN crowd, who assume themselves being especially qualified to comment on fields they are not experts on (statistics and economics in particular, but many others as well)

Re: Skin in the Game – chapter drafts by Nassim Taleb

#97
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a legitimate criticism, but he's arguing a strawman. First off, the reviewer's coinflip analogy is deeply flawed. If you take a million draws from a binomial distribution, it's not going to end up the same as a million draws from an exponential distribution. That has an even deeper meaning when you, as an individual, are one random draw from said distribution, especially if you want to live in a society that con…

Okay, so I haven't read the book but I read the scathing review - and I think your rebuttal isn't quite fair. You started to address the review but switched to ad hom attacks to discredit the reviewer - when in reality the reviewer is a past financial professor who works in risk management, and makes some very salient points about the logic behind the books claims. Even what you say about sampling binomial vs. expone…

Sorry about the ad homs; the reviewer used moral/philosophical instead of technical reasons to argue against (except that point on simulations), so I assumed he was a riled up layperson. I read his review too fast, I guess.

The reviewer's point is this:

"Finally, the author is not asking me to personally give more money to the government, he wants me to support forcing other people to do it. But those other people have average luck, by definition "

But that's wrong; if the tax is progressive, and you take it as given that the successful are lucky, then you are in fact taxing the lucky with a progressive tax. The question is targeting the tax correctly.

Re: Skin in the Game – chapter drafts by Nassim Taleb

#98
post #42
post #5

Am I the only one who doesn't enjoy Taleb's writing style? I find that he tends to use overly complex vocabulary to explain very simple ideas.

When I tried to read Antifragile his style seemed rambling and incoherent, darting back and forth between concepts and obtuse metaphors, like a tirade from the coked-up conspiracy nut at every party. I may need to give it another shot.

I don't know how to describe it, but his style is...vintage. More like when I read old books. I'm particularly suited for this writing style and I interpret it fine. People frequently make the same complaints about the way I speak in person when discussing things. This is in no way a claim that I am as smart as Taleb.

Re: Skin in the Game – chapter drafts by Nassim Taleb

#99
post #42
post #5

Am I the only one who doesn't enjoy Taleb's writing style? I find that he tends to use overly complex vocabulary to explain very simple ideas.

When I tried to read Antifragile his style seemed rambling and incoherent, darting back and forth between concepts and obtuse metaphors, like a tirade from the coked-up conspiracy nut at every party. I may need to give it another shot.

He does jump around a lot in Black Swan, but that suits me

Re: Skin in the Game – chapter drafts by Nassim Taleb

#100
post #62

The solution to the employee slavery problem is simple: try a part time stint in an industry you can afford to mess up in. For example, if you can get a job as a non-proprietary trader you get a huge positive expected value. You make $$ - you get a huge windfall. Mess up? You get fired and collect only a small salary. You should make a pact with a couple friends to share he windfalls, and then each of you makes a gua…

That's interesting. Four different trading philosophies, four traders. They're aware of their fallibility. They contract and pour their earnings into an escrow account every pay period. They each receive a basic stipend. At the terminus of the agreement (e.g., 2 years), all earnings are distributed evenly.
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