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Skin in the Game – chapter drafts by Nassim Taleb

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Re: Skin in the Game – chapter drafts by Nassim Taleb

#61

Post by EGreg »

gopher2 wrote: post #10
mayukh wrote: post #4

For somebody who wrote 'Fooled by ..' one of my favorite books of all time, he certainly doesn't seem to suffer from self-doubt when it comes to stating his personal hypotheses. I can look past his condescending tone (especially towards the wealthy and 'pseudo' intellectuals), but his certitude in his own ideas -- especially after pressing home the point that we are surrounded by randomness -- tarnishes his punditry…

I agree with this and loved Fooled By Randomness. Taleb clearly thinks a lot about these types of things and usually has very interesting ideas. He also has fun analogies and presents things in a way that makes you think differently (partly because he doesn't state things with a lot of nuance). However, he also comes off as quite arrogant to me with criticism of just about all others in society except for himself for…

Hard to criticize yourself while simultaneously presenting your new ideas

Re: Skin in the Game – chapter drafts by Nassim Taleb

#62

Post by EGreg »

The solution to the employee slavery problem is simple: try a part time stint in an industry you can afford to mess up in.

For example, if you can get a job as a non-proprietary trader you get a huge positive expected value. You make $$ - you get a huge windfall. Mess up? You get fired and collect only a small salary. You should make a pact with a couple friends to share he windfalls, and then each of you makes a guaranteed win.

Re: Skin in the Game – chapter drafts by Nassim Taleb

#63

Post by mseebach »

EGreg wrote: post #61
gopher2 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with this and loved Fooled By Randomness. Taleb clearly thinks a lot about these types of things and usually has very interesting ideas. He also has fun analogies and presents things in a way that makes you think differently (partly because he doesn't state things with a lot of nuance). However, he also comes off as quite arrogant to me with criticism of just about all others in society except for himself for…

Hard to criticize yourself while simultaneously presenting your new ideas

Perhaps. But you can certainly display modesty.

Re: Skin in the Game – chapter drafts by Nassim Taleb

#64

Post by rodionos »

Couldn't finish Black Swan, the same idea, regardless its merits, is discussed on 300 pages over and over again. Highly repetitive, the tone is generally condescending. I didn't like his stories about giving taxi drivers 100 dollar bills and observing their behavior.

Re: Skin in the Game – chapter drafts by Nassim Taleb

#65

Post by mseebach »

tptacek wrote: post #45
mayukh wrote: post #4

For somebody who wrote 'Fooled by ..' one of my favorite books of all time, he certainly doesn't seem to suffer from self-doubt when it comes to stating his personal hypotheses. I can look past his condescending tone (especially towards the wealthy and 'pseudo' intellectuals), but his certitude in his own ideas -- especially after pressing home the point that we are surrounded by randomness -- tarnishes his punditry…

I read Fooled and Black Swan and I'm just going to admit it: I don't get it. I mean, I think I understood both books. But can someone explain why they're supposed to be so revelatory? I found them to be... something else. Many, many smart people seem to swear by Fooled. Why? What am I missing?

I think Black Swan was mostly propelled forward by its extremely poignant timing: It was published just before the financial crash, an event it seemed to describe in pretty high detail.

Also, I liked it. I felt it did very a good job of describing some important concepts in statistics and epistemology that weren't obvious to me at the time. YMMV, especially if you (unlike me) paid much attention in college maths and statistics.

Re: Skin in the Game – chapter drafts by Nassim Taleb

#66

Post by msrpotus »

Houshalter wrote: post #11

The chapter about minorities ruling majorities was really insightful. He mentioned how if even a small percent of people become anti GMO, then GMOs will die out. A scary thing to keep in mind with the whole "label it" debate that was on here a few days ago.

He's really wrong about the kosher example in a way that makes me wonder whether he really understands a lot of what he's talking about.

Anyone who is familiar with kashrut knows that only vegetarian foods (with a few exceptions) are reliably kosher, because it takes very little to make them kosher, just paying for an inspection and certification to say that there aren't any animal products. But if you want kosher meat, kosher cheese, kosher wine, or kosher cooked food, it's significantly more difficult to find that.

Why?

Because those impose real costs on the producers that force them to change their practices. If you want kosher meat, that excludes pork and animals have to be treated differently. If you want kosher cheese, it can't have rennet (an animal protein), which most cheese does. If you want kosher wine, it needs to be processed in a specific way. And if you want kosher cooked food, not only does the restaurant have to follow all of those rules but they also can't serve milk and meat together. Suddenly, it becomes a lot less common to find kosher food if you actually care about it and aren't just cherrypicking an example for a book.

If you want a real lesson from kosher food, it's that companies will adopt all sorts of certifications and make any number of promises as long as they don't have to significantly change what they're doing. But if you ask them to do something that would really cost them money, then they are much less likely.

Re: Skin in the Game – chapter drafts by Nassim Taleb

#67

Post by shardinator »

VodkaHaze wrote: post #46
tptacek wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read Fooled and Black Swan and I'm just going to admit it: I don't get it. I mean, I think I understood both books. But can someone explain why they're supposed to be so revelatory? I found them to be... something else. Many, many smart people seem to swear by Fooled. Why? What am I missing?

Fooled by randomness is his best book, but it's probably getting replaced by Robert Frank's book "Success and Luck" on my recommendation list for that topic. It's just a good reminder that you might be luckier than you think and that skill doesn't fully explain the successful achievements. Black Swan is seriously hard to read through; his arrogance is insufferable. The point he's making is fairly self evident; the bo…

It's all about when it was done. Before the GFC everyone believed that if you were rich you were smart and the opposite. If you challenged this you were a loser.

Then along came a cranky old uncle, who had no business being in the building, except that he did.

Turns out he had a point and now we consider these ideas trivial.

Today if you say all people are born equal and deserve equal rights 99% of the world will agree. There was a time when this wasn't true.

What you say + when you say it = what it's worth

Re: Skin in the Game – chapter drafts by Nassim Taleb

#68

Post by dagss »

Balgair wrote: post #59
a_bonobo wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The Precautionary Principle (with Application to the Genetic Modification of Organisms) That article is a prime example of pseudo intellectualism, mostly because he lumps all GMOs in one big bucket, there's no general characteristic yet he and co-authors forces one. No wonder it's "only" on arxiv and hasn't made it anywhere else (look at the endorsers: https://arxiv.org/auth/show-endorsers/1410.5787 ) A rebuttal di…

Ha! Love the understated tone there. Nature is "a journal" like the Pyramids are "a stone pile".

Nature Biotechnology is in fact only "a journal", there is Nature proper and then lots of spin-offs that have to be evaluated on their own merit.

Re: Skin in the Game – chapter drafts by Nassim Taleb

#69

Post by mseebach »

dagw wrote: post #40
Houshalter wrote: post #11

The chapter about minorities ruling majorities was really insightful. He mentioned how if even a small percent of people become anti GMO, then GMOs will die out. A scary thing to keep in mind with the whole "label it" debate that was on here a few days ago.

if even a small percent of people become anti GMO, then GMOs will die out Not if they are a measurably better product the won't. If GMOs can offer food that is significantly tastier and/or significantly cheaper then they will do just fine. I'm not a big fan of GMOs per se. but offer me something I actually want and I'll happily buy your product

I think the problem here is one level of abstraction further out. It's not whether anti-GMO types can keep you and I from buying GMO products -- indeed, it's unlikely that GMOs are going to have much to offer western middle class consumers.

The big kicker is the effect this battle have in the third world, where GMOs hold the potential of a much larger impact (see eg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_rice ).

Re: Skin in the Game – chapter drafts by Nassim Taleb

#70

Post by ThomPete »

triangleman wrote: post #49
ThomPete wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

that won't work in the EU which have have a much more sceptic view on these things. Their principle is the direct opposite of the US. If there is just the slightest risk that something is dangerous they forbid it. In the US they only forbid things if there is overwhelmingly evidence that points towards it being dangerous.

Then how do you explain the ban on ephedra? Something like 2 people die and it's off the market. Meanwhile, Tylenol kills hundreds of people annually and it's still allowed. I was going to use Thalidomide as another counterexample, but I don't know how things are in Europe compared to the 60's.

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