No One Knows What the F*** They're Doing (or "The 3 Types of Knowledge") • Hacker News Board

Re: No One Knows What the F*** They're Doing (or "The 3 Types of Knowledge")

#81

Post by tyler197802198 » Mon, Feb 15, 2010, 8:58 AM UTC

DLWormwood wrote: post #61

kqr2 wrote: post #28

Reminds me of the quote from Rumsfeld. Reformatted by http://www.slate.com/id/2081042/ The Unknown As we know, There are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know There are known unknowns. That is to say We know there are some things We do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, The ones we don't know We don't know.

Both Rumsfeld (and the article) missed the 4th type of knowledge: "unknown knowns." That is, things you know, but you don't realize you know yet. (Either you know it subconsciously, have knowledge from another domain you don't yet realize is appropriate to the job at hand, or you learned it before, forgot it, and only need a small reminder or mental jog to regain it.)

Think about what you just said. "Unknown knowns" (emphasis added). Therefore, they are knowns, and would fit into the "Shit you know" category.

Re: No One Knows What the F*** They're Doing (or "The 3 Types of Knowledge")

#82

Post by bliss » Mon, Feb 15, 2010, 11:23 PM UTC

tyler197802198 wrote: post #77

bliss wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't believe that the purpose of advertisements is to reassure customers AFTER they've spent the money. That doesn't make sense to me. Future sale is influenced by good service over the length of ownership. I don't agree that post-sale ego-stroking is even a factor. I do however believe and agree that beliefs are self reinforcing (see I failed again, just like I knew I would)

Well, you just convinced me you believe that, thereby demonstrating that "b" is easier than "a". Congrats! However, you are still wrong. At one point the US National Government spent $1/4 mil per year in attempts to convince people who had bought American-made cars that they had made a good choice. (I don't know current stats, and know that I don't know them.) Think of it this way: If you can convince people who boug…

Special case there, the US Govt isn't a car manufacturer per-se. That's just the equivalent of the Buy British message from the UK government.

I don't see BMW, say, doing these kinds of ads and they seem quite popular.

Re: No One Knows What the F*** They're Doing (or "The 3 Types of Knowledge")

#83

Post by Lochinvar » Thu, Mar 04, 2010, 4:06 PM UTC

lqdshadow wrote: post #34

pyre wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The world rewards those who cause motion, who act. I hate to bring Godwin into this, but Hitler acted/caused motion, so did Stalin, so do a lot of bad people. Did the world really reward them?

They left enough of a mark with their motion that you readily brought up names and thought of actions. Fame is enough reward for some people, as is power and money. I did not exclude the possibility of punishments. The point is that, right or wrong, they made decisions. They lived. How many of us can say that we took a chance and really felt alive with that big decision? Maybe it is about starting a war with your nei…

Um... no, being right actually matters. Leaders that say, get half their men killed in a phyrric march to Russia failed, no matter how they are remembered. They did wrong. It isn't enough. Being the Best or Nothing is an attitude that will end in tears. It's only to be the best-- the most considered and thought out-- that one can be. Anyone can hare off into idiocy... that doesn't take bravery, or gumption, or if it does, it takes tools that could be used well and uses them for ill. All it takes is not knowing enough to be concerned, and thus not knowing enough to make informed decisions about what one's going into.

Action is like fire-- it's a means to an end, not an end in and of itself.

Re: No One Knows What the F*** They're Doing (or "The 3 Types of Knowledge")

#84

Post by Lochinvar » Thu, Mar 04, 2010, 4:09 PM UTC

scott_s wrote: post #23

fnid2 wrote: post #2

Sometimes, in conversations with others, I hear them say with complete confidence stuff that I know is total crap. It's like I just can't get over how absolutely wrong they are and yet how absolutely right they believe they are. So I start wondering how many times I do exactly the same thing. I mean, how can I know what I don't know? How much is there? How do I even know if something I really believe is true or not?…

We always operate with imperfect knowledge. So we must make decisions based on probable outcomes. Is the child more likely to be better off if not hit by the car? Since the chance of death is high, then yes. You also have to factor out things that appear on both sides of the equation. Any of the possible positive things you have prevented that also could happen had you intervened are irrelevant to the decision. We ne…

It's not a binary system. The point is that it's better to make a decision knowing that your knowledge is imperfect and allowing for that than to do so thinking that your plan is perfect and that nothing could possibly go wrong.