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Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

kalkis-research.com

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Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#61

Post by FussyZeus »

jasode wrote: post #13
BillFranklin wrote: post #4

The writer attacks impressions over clicks as more expensive and less worthwhile, but misses entirely that advertising isn't about making you click (few really click), it's about awareness. The writer also notes that Google is putting ads on lower quality websites, but forgets that their search ads comprise the lions share of their ad revenue. Google.com isn't becoming a lower quality website.

>", it's about awareness." I'm curious if this is actually statistically true specifically in regards to google ads which has active user exploration as opposed to tv/radio/magazines which has passive consumption. To me, the "awareness ads" are campaigns typically created by CocaCola/Pepsi, beer, DeBeers diamonds-are-forever, Viagra-you-should-asky-your-doctor-about-it. The ads typically feature vague and generic "li…

I can't confirm anything about revenues, but anecdotally we've noticed as a team over the last couple of years that our Google ads have moved slowly from the more action-oriented ones to awareness campaigns. I have no idea the marketing value behind those sort but I have to think they're doing something, Chevrolet especially seems to crop up a lot, and we aren't a car site of any sort.

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#62

Post by FussyZeus »

Forgive me if someone already pointed this out but:

> What makes this trend worse is that users who install ad blockers first, tend to be the more sophisticated and the more affluent ones.

Do they ever cite any kind of source or demographic data to support this statement? It follows the logic I'd go with in my own head but I'm curious if this has been documented somewhere.

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#63

Post by mathattack »

red_admiral wrote: post #15

"Facebook on the other hand, has a better control of who is actually seeing its ads, and will benefit from the turmoil by gaining market share." Did they pay you to write this? Google ads in search will always be valuable because you can advertise nail varnish to people who have just searched for "buy nail varnish". This is also about the millionth post I've read which assumes that companies simply throw money at adv…

CPM can be useful to approximate broader brand advertising. Companies like Coca-cola, Budweiser and GM want people to see their ads a certain number of times, in order to develop lifetime habits. It's not about specific clicks, or even immediate purchases. CPM is the best way to approximate this.

Of course the end goal is what you mention: sales leading to profits.

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#64

Post by sixtypoundhound »

ssharp wrote: post #51
Udik wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Google ads in search will always be valuable because you can advertise nail varnish to people who have just searched for "buy nail varnish" Yes, how dumb is that? A few weeks ago I googled for a company I was going to interview with. Since then the ad spaces in my web pages have been filled with ads of this company, which sells IT services for logistics. I'm a sort of atypical consumer - not very willing to spend m…

A few comments on this: 1) The company might be better off capping their impressions to you. 2) The company might be better off focusing on setting their remarketing pixels further down the funnel (unless you entered their funnel as part of the process). 3) How do you reasonably expect the company to treat you differently than they do actual leads? I'll assume the majority of traffic that goes to their website is int…

This.

Statistically, based on limited information, re-marketing to groups of people who have already visited the site (or merchant, for offline marketing - I've done this in meat-space too) will beat the pants off marketing fresh leads.

I do agree with the impression cap comment and bumping the tag down deeper into the site / funnel, although a really strong job hunter would read the full product description (like any serious prospect)....

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#65

Post by simula67 »

coredog64 wrote: post #46
taneq wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A used car salesman who you spoke to once at a party and who knows a couple of facts about you which they refer to in every damn sentence. "Hey so last time I saw you you talked about nail polish, I've got a friend selling some... Did you want cheap tickets to a nail-painting seminar? There's a nail & manicure kit on Amazon!" Only it wasn't even you at the party, it was your friend that did one Google search for nail…

At least with Amazon, when I search for a gag gift, I can tell them later to ignore my page view for recommendations. I would love ability for same with Google.

You can disassosciate your interests from google by going here : https://www.google.com/ads/preferences and make it permanent by using IBA opt-out plugin : https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/iba-opt-out-by-goo...

You can control what kind of data Google is allowed to collect about you from Google's settings dashboard : https://www.google.com/settings/dashboard

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#66

Post by RobertKerans »

Udik wrote: post #60
ssharp wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A few comments on this: 1) The company might be better off capping their impressions to you. 2) The company might be better off focusing on setting their remarketing pixels further down the funnel (unless you entered their funnel as part of the process). 3) How do you reasonably expect the company to treat you differently than they do actual leads? I'll assume the majority of traffic that goes to their website is int…

I don't understand why the job of figuring out how to place the ads best should be a concern of the company, instead of Google itself. Google knows basically everything about me, including where I work and what type of job I do, I'm surprised they can't do a better job at placing their customer's ads.

Maybe because they don't 'know' in the way you seem to indicate; Google's not a person, making those inferences is hard - clearly the state of the art is very much advanced from even 5-10 years ago, but how do the algorithms know that you don't also want to buy things from the company you applied to? That's not a simple inference, given a (by necessity) limited graph without human capabilities

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#67

Post by bhouston »

titzer wrote: post #37

I thought this article was poorly researched and the conclusions don't follow from any of the data presented. The narrative is basically just a disgruntled "old man yells at cloud" screed. Then I saw this: > This is a re-run of the online advertising crash of the early 2000s, when the proliferation of banners and pop-ups destroyed any value these ads had (and led people to install pop-up killers, just like with ad bl…

> It was not about advertising.

High CPMs were part of the bubble. Not the primary core of the bubble but it did support a lot of companies.

In the run up to the crash CPMs (for just impressions) were very very high, but after the crash they dropped 10x fold. This wiped out many companies that were dependent upon these fat CPMs for their continued existence.

Some citations:

https://www.quora.com/What-does-the-dot-com-bubble-burst-hav...

https://moz.com/blog/return-of-the-cpm-ad-model

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#69

Post by chii »

have_faith wrote: post #19
chii wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

so you're saying facebook couldn't scan the pictures people post up, see that a user's finger is not painted properly, and thus start displaying the appropriate ads?

Not only do I not think they could do that currently. I worry about the effect this future form of advertising will have on young people. Your insecurities analysed and used against you in real time.

> Your insecurities analysed and used against you in real time.

if there's a way to make money off someone's insecurities legally, you can bet that it's gonna happen. I do worry, but i think worrying isn't going to stop it from becoming true.

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#70

Post by geocar »

qaq wrote: post #56
geocar wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1) Not necessarily. Most exchanges allow the publisher to supply their own domain, either explicitly, or because the real information comes from JavaScript that the Publisher can subvert and control. This happens. 2) Many (most?) markets don't have direct response, making measuring return very difficult. 3) That's basically everybody. If you know someone who actually knows what they're doing with ads, then I've got a…

I've worked with ad networks dealing with online gaming. While I am not ready to buy your bridge I saw people that were very good at what they did running campaigns that had sometimes way over 20% conversion rates. The compensation structure was revenue share 30-40% for life of the player. People who knew what they are doing were making 50-60K per week. From that experience I formed an opinion that people who know wh…

If you mean new sales, then that's interesting, and you should say that. Anyone who can get 200 new users out of every 1000 ads can certainly do something I can't do, and I'd like to hear about how.

Most people use the term "conversion" to mean matching some cookies together.

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