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Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

kalkis-research.com

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Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#41

Post by onion2k »

red_admiral wrote: post #15

"Facebook on the other hand, has a better control of who is actually seeing its ads, and will benefit from the turmoil by gaining market share." Did they pay you to write this? Google ads in search will always be valuable because you can advertise nail varnish to people who have just searched for "buy nail varnish". This is also about the millionth post I've read which assumes that companies simply throw money at adv…

Google ads in search will always be valuable because you can advertise nail varnish to people who have just searched for "buy nail varnish".

Google and Facebook both have the problem that their business model is predicated on having thousands of small advertisers bidding on ads. That's what they leverage to generate profit. In any market that's dominated by a single entity that smaller companies won't compete with for ad space, both Google and Facebook lose the ability to make money.

When the majority of people who want to buy nail varnish bypass search entirely and go straight to Amazon, Google and Facebook have a huge problem. The same is true if developers go straight to Stack Overflow, people looking for rooms go straight to AirBNB, people moving around cities go straight to Uber, etc, then Google and Facebook will have no one to sell ad space to any more.

I'm not about to suggest Google and Facebook are doomed; they both have talent enough to think of ways to meet these challenges. I would however suggest that they are not too big to fail.

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#42

Post by wutbrodo »

titzer wrote: post #37

I thought this article was poorly researched and the conclusions don't follow from any of the data presented. The narrative is basically just a disgruntled "old man yells at cloud" screed. Then I saw this: > This is a re-run of the online advertising crash of the early 2000s, when the proliferation of banners and pop-ups destroyed any value these ads had (and led people to install pop-up killers, just like with ad bl…

> I thought this article was poorly researched and the conclusions don't follow from any of the data presented

Seriously. A whole paragraph and graph about how click prices were declining and no mention of the move to mobile? Just some assumptions pulled out of his ass about how ads suddenly rapidly declined in quality in those particular years? (never mind that both desktop and mobile ad prices were growing, with the overall decline attributable to the shift to mobile usage).

There's a lot of crap on the Internet but it's pathetic that HN has finally stooped low enough that such low quality drivel gets frontpaged by uncritical up voters.

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#43

Post by Udik »

red_admiral wrote: post #15

"Facebook on the other hand, has a better control of who is actually seeing its ads, and will benefit from the turmoil by gaining market share." Did they pay you to write this? Google ads in search will always be valuable because you can advertise nail varnish to people who have just searched for "buy nail varnish". This is also about the millionth post I've read which assumes that companies simply throw money at adv…

> Google ads in search will always be valuable because you can advertise nail varnish to people who have just searched for "buy nail varnish"

Yes, how dumb is that? A few weeks ago I googled for a company I was going to interview with. Since then the ad spaces in my web pages have been filled with ads of this company, which sells IT services for logistics.

I'm a sort of atypical consumer - not very willing to spend money on gadgets, for example; but I'm surprised nonetheless that with all this talk of "big data", they can't do a better job at figuring out the things I'm really interested in and instead keep bombarding me with ads related to any random search I've made. That's silly and a big waste of money.

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#44

Post by jjoonathan »

Udik wrote: post #43
red_admiral wrote: post #15

"Facebook on the other hand, has a better control of who is actually seeing its ads, and will benefit from the turmoil by gaining market share." Did they pay you to write this? Google ads in search will always be valuable because you can advertise nail varnish to people who have just searched for "buy nail varnish". This is also about the millionth post I've read which assumes that companies simply throw money at adv…

> Google ads in search will always be valuable because you can advertise nail varnish to people who have just searched for "buy nail varnish" Yes, how dumb is that? A few weeks ago I googled for a company I was going to interview with. Since then the ad spaces in my web pages have been filled with ads of this company, which sells IT services for logistics. I'm a sort of atypical consumer - not very willing to spend m…

They can absolutely figure it out, just not for less than it costs to throw the ads at you, which is very little.

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#46

Post by coredog64 »

taneq wrote: post #39
Sir_Substance wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If I walk into a store, the assistant asks "Can I help you?" and I reply "I'm looking for a crimson-coloured nail varnish" and then she says "Sure! We have a new line in this week, can I show you?" then I'm more than happy to let her show me. That's what google search ads feel like. Is it though? Because I always thought it felt more like a used car salesman crossed with clippy. "I see you're trying to paint your na…

A used car salesman who you spoke to once at a party and who knows a couple of facts about you which they refer to in every damn sentence. "Hey so last time I saw you you talked about nail polish, I've got a friend selling some... Did you want cheap tickets to a nail-painting seminar? There's a nail & manicure kit on Amazon!" Only it wasn't even you at the party, it was your friend that did one Google search for nail…

At least with Amazon, when I search for a gag gift, I can tell them later to ignore my page view for recommendations. I would love ability for same with Google.

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#47

Post by AznHisoka »

prof_hobart wrote: post #31
zaro wrote: post #12

Ads have turned the internet into a sh*thole. It's time to go back to a more sensible way ...

What would be paying for most of it? An awful lot of the content out there exists because there's money in it (or at least the hope of money). And most of what pays for that is ads.

Bloggers. The Internet is not short of quality content at all. If Mashable can't afford to write about Trump, a blogger will.

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#48

Post by malka »

onion2k wrote: post #41
red_admiral wrote: post #15

"Facebook on the other hand, has a better control of who is actually seeing its ads, and will benefit from the turmoil by gaining market share." Did they pay you to write this? Google ads in search will always be valuable because you can advertise nail varnish to people who have just searched for "buy nail varnish". This is also about the millionth post I've read which assumes that companies simply throw money at adv…

Google ads in search will always be valuable because you can advertise nail varnish to people who have just searched for "buy nail varnish". Google and Facebook both have the problem that their business model is predicated on having thousands of small advertisers bidding on ads. That's what they leverage to generate profit. In any market that's dominated by a single entity that smaller companies won't compete with fo…

> I would however suggest that they are not too big to fail.

Nothing is. Ultimately, everything fails.

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#49

Post by Udik »

jjoonathan wrote: post #44
Udik wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Google ads in search will always be valuable because you can advertise nail varnish to people who have just searched for "buy nail varnish" Yes, how dumb is that? A few weeks ago I googled for a company I was going to interview with. Since then the ad spaces in my web pages have been filled with ads of this company, which sells IT services for logistics. I'm a sort of atypical consumer - not very willing to spend m…

They can absolutely figure it out, just not for less than it costs to throw the ads at you, which is very little.

They're not wasting money in showing me that ad, its cost is negligible. They're wasting the money they could have made by showing me a relevant ad. For example, there's tons of books I might be interested in buying, and they might be able to extract that information from my browsing habits. It would be an advantage for me as well, to get suggestions about things I might be interested in.

Showing me nail varnish ads when I already told google that I want to buy some is not even advertising, it's just paid search.

Re: Google: End of the Online Advertising Bubble

#50

Post by Rzah »

onion2k wrote: post #41
red_admiral wrote: post #15

"Facebook on the other hand, has a better control of who is actually seeing its ads, and will benefit from the turmoil by gaining market share." Did they pay you to write this? Google ads in search will always be valuable because you can advertise nail varnish to people who have just searched for "buy nail varnish". This is also about the millionth post I've read which assumes that companies simply throw money at adv…

Google ads in search will always be valuable because you can advertise nail varnish to people who have just searched for "buy nail varnish". Google and Facebook both have the problem that their business model is predicated on having thousands of small advertisers bidding on ads. That's what they leverage to generate profit. In any market that's dominated by a single entity that smaller companies won't compete with fo…

Of all the things that might happen, users going directly to websites rather than through google/facebook is by far the least likely.

Whats more likely to happen is that someone will come along with better search with less advertising (just like Google did), or someone might build a better social network with less advertising (just like facebook did). There's as much precidence for these things reoccurring as there is for users increasingly searching rather than using the url bar.

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