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The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

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Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#291

Post by msellout »

derefr wrote: post #275
pc2g4d wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Price electricity differently through the day according to its scarcity and people might eventually adjust their routines to reduce evening usage.

That seems backwards. The aggregate preferences and habits of humans should be seen as an incentivizing force for the creations of new technologies, not the other way around.

Yikes. Yes, of course technology is driven by human preferences. But, No, humans must occasionally accept that certain habits are not sustainable given current and near-future technologies.

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#292

Post by SFJulie »

I hate these stupid work hours anyway that create this stupid habit of burning energy when it is not "naturally available".

Couldn't changing the business hour according to the sun and wind be the real cost killer?

No technologies, no investments involved, it just requires one smart boss, some smart accountant and employees.

Imagine it: people would have no way to avoid raising their kids during the down season, we could fire teacher, single could do art, we could stop funding culture and it would be popular culture, maybe science, less working hours, but more people would have to work.

It would solve quite a few problem.

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#293

Post by nimish »

tim333 wrote: post #274
tanderson92 wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't see why they would need to hope that interest rates remain low. Interest rates are already low, so they can sell debt at current interest rates for the term needed. I do think you're correct that low interest rates are a factor.

An unusual feature in this case is >One can suspect that Masdar had access to long-term financing through the wealthy emirate of Abu Dhabi that no commercial banks, the primary source of capital for the other bidders, could match in cost.

Bingo. They're being subsidized by a government with access to cheap funds, and in Abu Dhabi's case, a lot of oil wealth.

In contrast the unsubsidized bids are much higher

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#294

Post by ssmoot »

jobu wrote: post #262
epistasis wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being a manager at a large power company for 30 years is both an advantage and a disadvantage. For the past 30 years, the energy industry has changed incredibly slowly, so ones expectations of what is possible in the way of innovation is far far lower than it should be. The "duck curve" that your friend is referring to will be solved in a variety of ways, from wind to storage to HVDC interconnects to the rest of the…

> When storing a kWh costs $0.10, and there's also adaptive pricing to match supply and demand better, these problems will melt away. If the math and assumptions in this article are correct, then that's exactly the (wholesale) price point Tesla is aiming for with the Powerwall: http://cleantechnica.com/2015/05/09/tesla-powerwall-powerblo... There are a couple other (not yet released) energy storage solutions mentione…

It'd take over 1 BILLION Powerwalls to store half the daily usage in the US (using old usage numbers off Wikipedia).

I wonder if there's enough raw materials to make that realistic. And how to you manage recycling, repair, replacement, end-of-life concerns for all those batteries on that scale?

Not asking a sarcastic hypothetical. Genuinely curious. It's hard to wrap my head around numbers that big.

For reference I used this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electrici..., divided it by days, then the Powerwall's 6.4kwh capacity and then halved that number.

4,686,400,000,000 / 365 / 6.4 / 2 == 1,003,082,191.8 Powerwalls.

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#295

Post by jhallenworld »

Analemma_ wrote: post #283
amenghra wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some countries store energy by pumping water up a dam. Seems efficient.

It's very efficient and it's a great solution overall; the only problem is there are only so many dams we can build, since each one requires drowning a valley.

Solution: swimming pool on the roof.

http://www.fastcodesign.com/1672202/you-deserve-a-house-with...

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#296

Post by mmanfrin »

logicallee wrote: post #197

There is a nuanced economic issue related to this priced drop. Today, (and for some time in the past) solar panels can be an investment, that is paid off by the amount that is saved by not having to use the grid (for example.) So a homeowner might calculate that by investing $20,000 in solar panelling today, they can have a 100% return within 72 months (6 years). It's free if they manage to use it for 6 years. Afterw…

So then you consider that others are logical actors, and will follow to the same conclusion; meaning that the price won't drop in 18 months and is therefore the proper investment now.

But then you think that others will think this too, so then you should wait.

And then you remember that you should never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line.

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#297

Post by dennyis »

m3mnoch wrote: post #183
warmwaffles wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How long until you start seeing a return on investment? Right now my electricity bill for my home is ~100 a month in Texas. I would need to keep the same panels without maintenance fees for 33.33 years by your price point of 40k

this argument kind of annoys me. "yeah, but how long before you see a return on investment?" how about instantly? this is what we did: 1) calculated our monthly electricity payment: $160 or so a month. 2) priced out solar to push our payment to net-zero-ish: the savings really start multiplying once you get down into the regulated tiers. 3) replaced our electricity bill with a solar installation loan. what did we get…

Re: Equity

Solar leases bring down the resale value of a home. If the equipment is owned it raises the resale value of a home.

I've sold 2 homes this year with solar leases. Both of them were great deals for the buyers netting basically the value of the lease off the full retail value of the home.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/money/real-estate/2015/07/17/...

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#298

Post by rms »

S_A_P wrote: post #229
coryfklein wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And that is why it is a huge problem for the power companies It is a problem, but not necessarily in the way you may be thinking. Peak residential power usage is in the evening when solar isn't available. Power companies therefore end up spinning down coal and natural gas during peak solar, then just spinning them back up again as the sun begins to set. [1] So you haven't replaced the coal and natural gas plants, y…

Can validate. The problem with electricity is that there is no large scale storage like there is for other forms of energy like NG and Crude. Until someone comes along and figures out how to store electricity, this will continue to cause grief to power companies. Power plants are really just options, if the price per kWh is at a certain point then it makes sense to spin up or take down a plant and generate power. Add…

http://www.lightsail.com/ has been working on this for a while now

Re: The price of solar power just fell 50% in 16 months

#299

Post by flo-g »

jackcosgrove wrote: post #233
coryfklein wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And that is why it is a huge problem for the power companies It is a problem, but not necessarily in the way you may be thinking. Peak residential power usage is in the evening when solar isn't available. Power companies therefore end up spinning down coal and natural gas during peak solar, then just spinning them back up again as the sun begins to set. [1] So you haven't replaced the coal and natural gas plants, y…

I would propose a global power grid as a solution to this problem, on which the sun would never set. The only problem is that earth is not set up well for this: the Sahara would be the solar workhorse of the planet, and the consumer of all this power would be Hawaii.

What if the grid connects (residential and commercial) across time zones, one generating for the next with no need of storage devices?
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