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End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles

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Re: End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles

#31

Post by kabouseng »

rmc wrote: post #18
kabouseng wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is a very defeatist and ultimately useless world view. Every generation is mad at the generation before it about something, and argues the previous generation could have solved the problems but now the current generation is left with the problems. Your statement above about millennials being left with the bill, meanwhile gen x feels the baby boomers did them in like another comment here states, the baby boomers…

> Every generation is mad at the generation before it about something, and argues the previous generation could have solved the problems but now the current generation is left with the problems. I mean, the canonical example is the German student protests in the 1960s ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_student_movement ), which led to things like the Red Army Faction ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Army_Facti…

Thanks for that, I'll definitely read up today.

Re: End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles

#32

Post by joosters »

darawk wrote: post #28
peteretep wrote: post #22

> "A coming collapse in investment returns" And yet McKinley are writing research about it, rather than liquidating the company to take short positions, which should tell you something about the pinch of salt required.

I don't think they're claiming that prices will collapse (which is what you would want to short on), but rather that returns will collapse. That over time, the return of say, the S&P 500 will be half of what it has been over the previous 20 years.

In either case, you'd want to sell your shares and invest the money somewhere better. If you believe the article, that is.

Re: End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles

#33

Post by fauigerzigerk »

knieveltech wrote: post #3
justinjlynn wrote: post #2

The me generation was aptly named, generation X ate the table scraps, and now we millennials are being left with the bill. Edit: I suppose the question now is, what can we do about it?

Gen X was standing on the same rug as you guys when it got pulled out. Take a look around next time you're in WalMart or McDonalds. All those 40ish looking people that look weirdly out of place in their uniform shirt? Yeah, that's us since the boomers nuked domestic manufacturing and construction wages made a run for the bottom. Don't even get me started on retirement. sigh

I think there is two classes of "us". Those who inherit significant wealth from the boomers and those who don't.

Re: End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles

#34

Post by nostrademons »

joosters wrote: post #32
darawk wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think they're claiming that prices will collapse (which is what you would want to short on), but rather that returns will collapse. That over time, the return of say, the S&P 500 will be half of what it has been over the previous 20 years.

In either case, you'd want to sell your shares and invest the money somewhere better. If you believe the article, that is.

I think part of the article's point is that there is no better place to put your money, and that we are likely to see reduced returns to capital across all asset classes. It is possible to have a glut of both capital and labor if there's no innovation in the economy.

(Conversely, this makes it a great time to be an entrepreneur if you have a good idea, but part of the article's point is that most of the low-hanging productivity gains have already been picked, and so it's becoming increasingly more difficult to have a good idea.)

Basically, it could be summed up with the old Dennis Leary song, "Life's Gonna Suck When You Grow Up."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3OjnwxhL72o

Re: End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles

#35

Post by neipfjin239 »

peteretep wrote: post #22

> "A coming collapse in investment returns" And yet McKinley are writing research about it, rather than liquidating the company to take short positions, which should tell you something about the pinch of salt required.

That would only make sense if McKinsey's main business was investing in the stock market. Actually their main business is selling management consulting, which as a source of profit is only weakly correlated to investment returns.

Also note that they didn't say you should expect a negative return from investing in the stock market. In fact, they said that you should expect a 4-6% return over the next 20 years, rather than the 7-8% return that has been experienced over the previous 30 years.

Re: End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles

#36

Post by marincounty »

kabouseng wrote: post #11
justinjlynn wrote: post #2

The me generation was aptly named, generation X ate the table scraps, and now we millennials are being left with the bill. Edit: I suppose the question now is, what can we do about it?

That is a very defeatist and ultimately useless world view. Every generation is mad at the generation before it about something, and argues the previous generation could have solved the problems but now the current generation is left with the problems. Your statement above about millennials being left with the bill, meanwhile gen x feels the baby boomers did them in like another comment here states, the baby boomers…

I'm not sure, nor care what generation society has labeled me. When I look back on who had it good, or bad; I always come to an abrupt stop when I think about having to go to war.

I couldn't imagine being a number in a draft, and just waiting for my turn to go. Those guys had real problems. I couldn't imagine being disabled, or killed over a rediculious war like Vietnam, or the Korean War.

When you take away being killed/maimed, being very poor is the next huge problem.

My heart does go out to anyone who's very poor in this society. I see the amout of homelessness, and cringe. It seems like the powers at be are going out of their way everything illegial. "Can't sleep here!" "Camping prohibited here." And living off the land seems only viable in some parts of Alaska? Hell, for all practical purposes it's practically impossible to live on the cheap, without breaking some law?

I really think we need to have areas set aside areas where people can pitch a tent, and use a restroom. We can debate about education, etc., but we have a big problem right now.

We have people who have know where to live. I don't see it getting better. Politicians really don't seem to care. Certain people from all generations act like homelessness is a lifestyle choice. In my world, it's my biggest fear.

Re: End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles

#37

Post by jacobush »

rmc wrote: post #18
kabouseng wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is a very defeatist and ultimately useless world view. Every generation is mad at the generation before it about something, and argues the previous generation could have solved the problems but now the current generation is left with the problems. Your statement above about millennials being left with the bill, meanwhile gen x feels the baby boomers did them in like another comment here states, the baby boomers…

> Every generation is mad at the generation before it about something, and argues the previous generation could have solved the problems but now the current generation is left with the problems. I mean, the canonical example is the German student protests in the 1960s ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_student_movement ), which led to things like the Red Army Faction ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Army_Facti…

The west german policy basically provoked that faction into existence by murdering. Can't remember the name of the incident but this information was withheld until fairly recently.

Re: End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles

#38

Post by jacobush »

pbhjpbhj wrote: post #30
RyanZAG wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Definitely. Just part of globalization. It helps far more people than it hurts, but for those in developed countries, you don't really see the people it is helping because they're across the planet. I'd say it's nice for developed countries to help out like that - but we all know the real winners are the businessmen behind your politicians bankrolling this stuff.

I'd assume you're right. Some evidence would be good to see - strikes me that instead of prosperity shifting to less developed nations it could instead be shifting to the already wealthy capitalists?

Especially since companies externalises environment costs and the poor people in Kerala and Africa etc have to pay.

Re: End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles

#39

Post by Ntrails »

nostrademons wrote: post #34
joosters wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In either case, you'd want to sell your shares and invest the money somewhere better. If you believe the article, that is.

I think part of the article's point is that there is no better place to put your money, and that we are likely to see reduced returns to capital across all asset classes. It is possible to have a glut of both capital and labor if there's no innovation in the economy. (Conversely, this makes it a great time to be an entrepreneur if you have a good idea, but part of the article's point is that most of the low-hanging p…

>* there is no better place to put your money*

I'm not sure I buy into that in the slightest, alternative asset classes exist for the very purpose of allowing diversity when market returns are poor. Some of them are rough to access as an individual, but others are not.

The real kicker is that the absolute size of a retirement pot is utterly meaningless without reference to the interest and inflation rates during retirement. Let alone what the mortality tables look like when you get there.

You're going to live longer, and so you're going to need to retire later with more money than your predecessors. That means saving towards it from the moment you start work, and ensuring that you access as many different return drivers as possible - even at the cost of some fees. Yes I'm a walking talking believer in DGFs.

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