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End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles

bloomberg.com

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Re: End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles

#11

Post by kabouseng »

justinjlynn wrote: post #2

The me generation was aptly named, generation X ate the table scraps, and now we millennials are being left with the bill. Edit: I suppose the question now is, what can we do about it?

That is a very defeatist and ultimately useless world view. Every generation is mad at the generation before it about something, and argues the previous generation could have solved the problems but now the current generation is left with the problems.

Your statement above about millennials being left with the bill, meanwhile gen x feels the baby boomers did them in like another comment here states, the baby boomers is mad at the generation before them (silent generation) about sending them to the disasters that was the vietnam and korean wars, and they in turn is mad about WW1 and WW2 and the great depression that they had to endure because their parents were living it up in the swinging 1910's and 20s.

Re: End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles

#12

Post by shrewduser »

SixSigma wrote: post #5

I really do dislike this style of reporting : A bold claim stated as fact. Claims report by X.

also the article says there's two ways it could go, low growth or similar growth compared to the past 30 years.

given that these predictions are always wrong i'm going to say some big revolution in technology comes our way and we see higher than previous growth and everythings going to be great.

put that in a headline.

Re: End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles

#13

Post by fauigerzigerk »

marvin wrote: post #7

Honest question: How is is possible to lend any weight to predictions like these when, even when it comes to the lower profits of the last few years, predictions have always been based on the recent past and wrong? There's any number of "black swan"-type events that could prove this to be incorrect.

I wouldn't put a lot of faith in such predictions either, but there are a few reasons to believe that exceptionally good returns might not be repeatable. One is simply regression to the mean. Others are high global levels of debt and a significant wave of globalization having just run its course.

But I think productivity growth and our ability to redistribute the fruits of that productivity growth are the big unknowns for the next 20 years. The current step change in our AI capabilities could throw a spanner in all attempts at making any reliable predictions.

Re: End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles

#14

Post by cm2187 »

I think it can get much worse than that.

I don't know why people think the current levels of accumulation of debt are sustainable but there is a limit to what even the US can roll in term of debt. All developped nations are at around 100% debt to GDP, more than 200% if you include private debt, and growing at 3-5% per annum.

Now does anyone really think that sometime soon any developped country will start making public surplus and deleverage for 30 years? That's never going to happen.

I think one or both of two things will happen: 1. massive defaults of states and therefore of banks and insurance companies. 2. Long period of high inflation.

Either way savings from people now in their 30s will be wiped out. A little gift from the departing generation (baby boomers)...

Re: End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles

#15

Post by trhway »

knieveltech wrote: post #3
justinjlynn wrote: post #2

The me generation was aptly named, generation X ate the table scraps, and now we millennials are being left with the bill. Edit: I suppose the question now is, what can we do about it?

Gen X was standing on the same rug as you guys when it got pulled out. Take a look around next time you're in WalMart or McDonalds. All those 40ish looking people that look weirdly out of place in their uniform shirt? Yeah, that's us since the boomers nuked domestic manufacturing and construction wages made a run for the bottom. Don't even get me started on retirement. sigh

>All those 40ish looking people that look weirdly out of place in their uniform shirt? Yeah, that's us since the boomers nuked domestic manufacturing and construction wages made a run for the bottom.

technology and economy do change. The changes can't be stopped. The question is how you adapt to them. When many people suddenly lost their job as soldiers 70 years ago there was in particular GI bill created to help manage the transition. What was done to manage the specific transition of domestic manufacturing jobs disappearing and overall transition to globalization and "information" economy? Nothing. Education and safety net are the main missing pieces which would support the transition. Yet, the country during last several decades has been either electing or seriously consider to elect a Republican :) Just think about couple trillions buried in the sands of Iraq and Afghanistan - that was basically total squandering of the humongous peace benefit of ending Cold War. It could have been a humongous improvement in education and medical systems and country infrastructure which would help tremendously to the transitioning GenX-ers as well as to the graduating and entering workforce Millenials... yet the country in 2000 decided that "lower taxes" outweigh it all. Well, you get what you pay for.

Blaming all those issues onto the third world countries for using the chance to improve their life just a bit, to stop being hungry every day - well, lets say that blaming is pointless whining at best and pretty heartless at least.

Re: End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles

#16

Post by cm2187 »

kabouseng wrote: post #11
justinjlynn wrote: post #2

The me generation was aptly named, generation X ate the table scraps, and now we millennials are being left with the bill. Edit: I suppose the question now is, what can we do about it?

That is a very defeatist and ultimately useless world view. Every generation is mad at the generation before it about something, and argues the previous generation could have solved the problems but now the current generation is left with the problems. Your statement above about millennials being left with the bill, meanwhile gen x feels the baby boomers did them in like another comment here states, the baby boomers…

The amount of debt that the baby boomers will leave behind is a very objective thing. This is the biggest accumulation of debt in peace time in the history of mankind (and objectively the parents indebting their children to buy a shiny new TV, a behaviour that would be universally unacceptable if it wasn't state wide).

Re: End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles

#17

Post by crdoconnor »

justinjlynn wrote: post #2

The me generation was aptly named, generation X ate the table scraps, and now we millennials are being left with the bill. Edit: I suppose the question now is, what can we do about it?

The 0.1% did this to you and blamed it on your grandma. The very least you could do is not believe them.

Re: End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles

#18

Post by rmc »

kabouseng wrote: post #11
justinjlynn wrote: post #2

The me generation was aptly named, generation X ate the table scraps, and now we millennials are being left with the bill. Edit: I suppose the question now is, what can we do about it?

That is a very defeatist and ultimately useless world view. Every generation is mad at the generation before it about something, and argues the previous generation could have solved the problems but now the current generation is left with the problems. Your statement above about millennials being left with the bill, meanwhile gen x feels the baby boomers did them in like another comment here states, the baby boomers…

> Every generation is mad at the generation before it about something, and argues the previous generation could have solved the problems but now the current generation is left with the problems.

I mean, the canonical example is the German student protests in the 1960s ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_student_movement ), which led to things like the Red Army Faction ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Army_Faction ). These were people whose parents were literally Nazis....

Re: End of Golden Era for Investors Spells Troubles

#19

Post by RobertoG »

cm2187 wrote: post #14

I think it can get much worse than that. I don't know why people think the current levels of accumulation of debt are sustainable but there is a limit to what even the US can roll in term of debt. All developped nations are at around 100% debt to GDP, more than 200% if you include private debt, and growing at 3-5% per annum. Now does anyone really think that sometime soon any developped country will start making publ…

Massive defaults of states doesn't make sense.

A country that have debt in its sovereign currency have not need to default.

Inflation is not precisely the problem now, is it?

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